Pairwise course analysis
Andover 5Kvs.Noble and Greenough School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower
+6.23%
Roughly 1:15 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
46
Strong evidence
Median difference
+6.75%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+6.23%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.46%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+5.23% to +7.29%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Andover 5K | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Skelly | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 24:55.003 races | -6.97% |
| Claire Choe | 2021 | 23:25.001 race | 23:14.001 race | -0.78% |
| Akshaya Sundraraj | 2021 | 32:07.001 race | 32:02.001 race | -0.26% |
| Sophia Lee | 2021 | 24:13.001 race | 24:38.004 races | +1.72% |
| Natalie Williamson | 2021 | 20:38.001 race | 21:08.001 race | +2.42% |
| James Good | 2021 | 21:20.001 race | 22:00.001 race | +3.13% |
| Torey Mathews | 2021 | 25:41.001 race | 26:30.001 race | +3.18% |
| Connor Steele | 2021 | 18:52.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +3.27% |
| Lindsay Popeo | 2021 | 22:50.001 race | 23:49.003 races | +4.31% |
| Lara Poole | 2021 | 25:55.001 race | 27:03.002 races | +4.37% |
| Ellie Sullivan | 2021 | 25:45.001 race | 26:58.001 race | +4.72% |
| Allison Park | 2021 | 24:15.001 race | 25:34.004 races | +5.43% |
| Ella Berger | 2021 | 24:33.001 race | 25:53.004 races | +5.43% |
| Kailin Shi | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 24:44.001 race | +5.77% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2021 | 17:39.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +5.95% |
| Teddy Ellis | 2021 | 17:53.001 race | 18:59.001 race | +6.15% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2021 | 21:06.001 race | 22:26.005 races | +6.32% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 24:07.004 races | +6.40% |
| Kate Wei | 2021 | 24:43.001 race | 26:18.003 races | +6.41% |
| Ryan Wei | 2021 | 17:51.001 race | 19:00.001 race | +6.44% |
| Celia Cheng | 2021 | 20:23.001 race | 21:44.004 races | +6.62% |
| Kai On (Jason) Yu | 2021 | 19:50.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +6.64% |
| Angie Feng | 2021 | 24:45.001 race | 26:24.002 races | +6.67% |
| Alex Janower | 2021 | 26:33.001 race | 28:22.005 races | +6.84% |
| Sofia Samuels | 2021 | 25:07.001 race | 26:51.003 races | +6.90% |
| Brian Xi | 2021 | 19:49.001 race | 21:12.001 race | +6.98% |
| Evan Zhang | 2021 | 19:29.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +7.01% |
| Julia Torrey | 2021 | 21:58.001 race | 23:34.001 race | +7.28% |
| Lindsay Saunders | 2021 | 23:19.001 race | 25:01.003 races | +7.29% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2021 | 19:36.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +7.40% |
| Ruby Tsai | 2021 | 24:08.001 race | 25:59.001 race | +7.67% |
| Victoria Fawcett | 2021 | 19:10.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +7.83% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2021 | 19:09.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +7.83% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2021 | 20:35.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +8.02% |
| Claire Mao | 2021 | 24:05.001 race | 26:01.004 races | +8.03% |
| Sam Dunn | 2021 | 17:37.001 race | 19:02.001 race | +8.04% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2021 | 19:50.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +8.15% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2021 | 25:55.001 race | 28:02.001 race | +8.17% |
| Thomas Strong | 2021 | 19:20.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +8.71% |
| Rebecca Janfaza | 2021 | 25:46.001 race | 28:05.003 races | +8.99% |
| Sofia Mraz | 2021 | 23:05.001 race | 25:11.001 race | +9.10% |
| Matthew Abati | 2021 | 19:42.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +9.14% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2021 | 19:44.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +9.29% |
| Zoe Campbell | 2021 | 20:46.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +11.72% |
| Elliot Smith | 2021 | 19:53.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +11.90% |
| Isabel Pavloniss | 2021 | 26:55.001 race | 30:54.001 race | +14.80% |