Pairwise course analysis
Bouchard Park 5Kvs.Noble and Greenough School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower
+6.39%
Roughly 1:17 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
122
Deep evidence
Median difference
+5.71%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+6.39%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.61%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Noble and Greenough School 5K fasterEvenNoble and Greenough School 5K slower
Confidence interval
+4.90% to +6.29%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Bouchard Park 5K | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Colbert | 2025 | 25:09.001 race | 23:09.001 race | -7.95% |
| Justin Lin | 2024 | 26:45.001 race | 24:50.001 race | -7.17% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2023 | 28:10.001 race | 26:55.002 races | -4.44% |
| Kate Wei | 2023 | 26:05.001 race | 25:22.002 races | -2.75% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2023 | 24:18.001 race | 23:51.001 race | -1.85% |
| Aaron Weiner | 2021 | 33:31.101 race | 33:20.001 race | -0.55% |
| Emma Finkelstein | 2023 | 24:42.001 race | 24:38.002 races | -0.27% |
| Sofia Branco | 2023 | 28:49.001 race | 28:53.001 race | +0.23% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 29:39.501 race | 29:47.001 race | +0.42% |
| Tyler Case | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 25:27.001 race | +0.46% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2023 | 19:09.001 race | 19:17.002 races | +0.70% |
| Riley Gordon | 2023 | 26:57.001 race | 27:10.002 races | +0.80% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2023 | 26:57.001 race | 27:12.002 races | +0.93% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 18:45.401 race | 18:59.001 race | +1.21% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 21:17.601 race | 21:45.001 race | +2.14% |
| Camille Destefano | 2021 | 29:13.601 race | 29:53.001 race | +2.25% |
| Emery Nordahl | 2023 | 23:37.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +2.33% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 17:54.801 race | 18:23.001 race | +2.62% |
| Yiling Ding | 2023 | 24:44.001 race | 25:24.002 races | +2.70% |
| Austin Reid | 2025 | 18:39.101 race | 19:12.001 race | +2.94% |
| Ella Berger | 2023 | 24:09.001 race | 24:53.002 races | +3.04% |
| Katherine Buckhout | 2021 | 23:13.301 race | 23:56.001 race | +3.06% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2025 | 17:42.801 race | 18:16.001 race | +3.12% |
| Alex Young | 2024 | 18:12.001 race | 18:49.001 race | +3.39% |
| Ben Owusu-Amo | 2023 | 22:19.001 race | 23:05.002 races | +3.44% |
| Angie Feng | 2023 | 25:08.001 race | 26:02.002 races | +3.58% |
| Mara Dubois | 2023 | 28:12.001 race | 29:17.002 races | +3.84% |
| Zach Green | 2023 | 21:22.001 race | 22:12.002 races | +3.90% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2024 | 16:36.001 race | 17:16.001 race | +4.02% |
| Tim Churchill | 2023 | 16:52.001 race | 17:33.002 races | +4.05% |
| Emilie Andrews | 2023 | 24:35.001 race | 25:35.002 races | +4.07% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2023 | 24:55.001 race | 25:56.002 races | +4.08% |
| Abdirizak Abdulle | 2023 | 21:31.001 race | 22:24.002 races | +4.11% |
| Patrick Albers | 2023 | 18:51.001 race | 19:38.002 races | +4.16% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2023 | 23:34.001 race | 24:33.002 races | +4.17% |
| Matthew Loose | 2023 | 18:44.001 race | 19:31.002 races | +4.18% |
| Raquel Frankel | 2023 | 27:33.001 race | 28:43.002 races | +4.23% |
| Devin Gray | 2023 | 19:12.001 race | 20:01.002 races | +4.25% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2023 | 19:50.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +4.29% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2023 | 23:06.001 race | 24:07.001 race | +4.40% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 20:09.601 race | 21:03.001 race | +4.41% |
| Jeffrey Liu | 2023 | 24:07.001 race | 25:11.002 races | +4.42% |
| Emmett Chen | 2023 | 20:43.001 race | 21:39.002 races | +4.51% |
| Liam Walsh | 2025 | 16:54.301 race | 17:41.001 race | +4.60% |
| Michael Timmins | 2023 | 19:52.001 race | 20:47.002 races | +4.61% |
| Addy Vettel | 2019 | 19:11.701 race | 20:07.001 race | +4.80% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2023 | 19:16.001 race | 20:12.002 races | +4.84% |
| Noah Douglas | 2023 | 17:04.001 race | 17:54.002 races | +4.88% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:11.201 race | 22:14.001 race | +4.94% |
| Wes Shaller | 2024 | 20:08.001 race | 21:08.001 race | +4.97% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 19:44.101 race | 20:43.001 race | +4.97% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 18:45.701 race | 19:42.001 race | +5.00% |
| Charlie Young | 2023 | 21:27.001 race | 22:32.002 races | +5.05% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 24:45.001 race | 26:00.001 race | +5.05% |
| Eric Archerman | 2025 | 17:29.601 race | 18:23.001 race | +5.09% |
| Anray Sheng | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +5.14% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 20:47.201 race | 21:54.001 race | +5.36% |
| Will Grace | 2023 | 19:17.001 race | 20:19.002 races | +5.36% |
| Leah Farb | 2023 | 24:04.001 race | 25:23.002 races | +5.47% |
| James Kerr | 2025 | 15:44.701 race | 16:37.001 race | +5.54% |
| Josie Kelleher | 2023 | 24:54.001 race | 26:19.001 race | +5.69% |
| Maxwell Huang | 2023 | 18:01.001 race | 19:03.002 races | +5.74% |
| Toby Harrison | 2025 | 18:07.501 race | 19:10.001 race | +5.75% |
| Charlie Hall | 2023 | 19:30.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +5.81% |
| Taylor Hauff | 2024 | 22:27.001 race | 23:46.001 race | +5.86% |
| Jerry Qin | 2023 | 20:37.001 race | 21:50.001 race | +5.90% |
| Madi Pugatch | 2024 | 26:20.001 race | 27:54.001 race | +5.95% |
| Richard Federico III | 2025 | 16:51.801 race | 17:52.001 race | +5.95% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:05.001 race | 18:06.001 race | +5.95% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 19:41.501 race | 20:54.001 race | +6.14% |
| Riya Jain | 2023 | 28:13.001 race | 29:58.001 race | +6.20% |
| Nate Madden | 2023 | 20:37.001 race | 21:54.002 races | +6.22% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 18:43.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +6.23% |
| Ben Romano | 2025 | 20:17.601 race | 21:34.001 race | +6.27% |
| Cam Stathos | 2019 | 17:14.501 race | 18:20.001 race | +6.33% |
| Justin Jang | 2021 | 20:08.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +6.62% |
| Allison Park | 2023 | 24:44.001 race | 26:23.002 races | +6.67% |
| Christina Hall | 2023 | 27:23.001 race | 29:17.002 races | +6.94% |
| Emme Salyer | 2024 | 21:34.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +6.96% |
| Henry McLane | 2023 | 17:15.001 race | 18:27.002 races | +6.96% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 23:31.201 race | 25:11.001 race | +7.07% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 29:33.101 race | 31:39.001 race | +7.10% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 20:44.501 race | 22:13.001 race | +7.11% |
| Ben Guenther | 2023 | 17:33.001 race | 18:48.002 races | +7.12% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2025 | 18:37.601 race | 19:58.001 race | +7.19% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 19:40.601 race | 21:06.001 race | +7.23% |
| Colin Bradley | 2025 | 17:34.601 race | 18:52.001 race | +7.34% |
| Rachel Bueker | 2024 | 25:21.001 race | 27:15.001 race | +7.50% |
| Catherine Curran | 2023 | 27:52.001 race | 29:59.002 races | +7.60% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 21:05.501 race | 22:42.001 race | +7.63% |
| Pepper Taylor | 2024 | 25:45.001 race | 27:43.001 race | +7.64% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:00.701 race | 19:26.001 race | +7.89% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 21:06.501 race | 22:47.001 race | +7.94% |
| Justin Jang | 2024 | 18:01.001 race | 19:27.001 race | +7.96% |
| Max Daniello | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 21:29.002 races | +8.05% |
| Margo Lewis | 2019 | 22:40.401 race | 24:30.001 race | +8.06% |
| Alexa Zhou | 2023 | 25:38.001 race | 27:42.001 race | +8.06% |
| Lukas Leibisch | 2024 | 20:22.001 race | 22:03.001 race | +8.27% |
| Paul Tompros | 2025 | 23:21.201 race | 25:18.001 race | +8.34% |
| Justin Lee | 2023 | 19:40.001 race | 21:22.002 races | +8.64% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2024 | 33:41.001 race | 36:36.001 race | +8.66% |
| James Fair | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 21:33.002 races | +8.84% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 20:39.201 race | 22:29.001 race | +8.86% |
| Sid Chopra | 2025 | 28:45.301 race | 31:23.001 race | +9.14% |
| Julian Vidal | 2025 | 20:29.001 race | 22:24.001 race | +9.36% |
| Nick Glaeser | 2025 | 22:08.601 race | 24:14.001 race | +9.44% |
| Temi Martins Dosumu | 2025 | 25:01.401 race | 27:27.001 race | +9.70% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2021 | 20:08.501 race | 22:06.001 race | +9.72% |
| Isla Scott | 2024 | 22:01.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +9.77% |
| Chloe Jeppson | 2023 | 29:42.001 race | 32:39.001 race | +9.93% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2023 | 29:41.001 race | 32:41.001 race | +10.11% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 19:36.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +10.12% |
| Ameer Hasan | 2025 | 22:04.101 race | 24:20.001 race | +10.26% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 20:54.901 race | 23:05.001 race | +10.37% |
| Alex Spindt | 2024 | 21:55.001 race | 24:16.001 race | +10.72% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 24:54.801 race | 27:39.001 race | +10.98% |
| Jake Rosenfeld | 2024 | 21:25.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +11.67% |
| Alex Kovtunenko | 2024 | 20:45.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +12.21% |
| Jayden Leung | 2023 | 21:17.001 race | 23:54.002 races | +12.29% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 21:15.801 race | 24:22.001 race | +14.59% |
| Annie Lopez | 2023 | 24:43.001 race | 28:28.002 races | +15.17% |
| Jasper Hyatt | 2025 | 20:42.301 race | 24:52.001 race | +20.10% |