Pairwise course analysis
Great Brook Farm 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+2.08%
Roughly 25.0 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
31
Developing evidence
Median difference
+3.21%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.08%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.99%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.67% to +4.72%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Great Brook Farm 5K | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 28:53.001 race | 27:56.001 race | -3.29% |
| Katherine Buckhout | 2021 | 23:33.001 race | 22:47.001 race | -3.26% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 20:11.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -2.06% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 20:51.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -0.16% |
| Camille Destefano | 2021 | 29:00.001 race | 29:00.001 race | 0.00% |
| Maya Daly | 2021 | 25:34.001 race | 25:35.001 race | +0.07% |
| Lucas Lu | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +0.74% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2021 | 24:48.001 race | 24:59.001 race | +0.74% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2021 | 24:50.001 race | 25:09.001 race | +1.28% |
| Parker Lial | 2021 | 23:34.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +1.56% |
| Bennett Walker | 2021 | 33:39.001 race | 34:28.001 race | +2.43% |
| Coco Liu | 2021 | 28:15.001 race | 28:59.001 race | +2.60% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 19:47.001 race | 20:22.001 race | +2.95% |
| Cate O'Connor | 2021 | 24:15.001 race | 25:00.001 race | +3.09% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 17:15.001 race | 17:48.001 race | +3.19% |
| Brianna Boucher | 2021 | 24:26.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +3.21% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +3.41% |
| Allen Xia | 2021 | 22:19.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +3.51% |
| Riley Eyman | 2021 | 22:06.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +3.54% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 20:32.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +3.57% |
| Catherine (Cate) Wacholz | 2021 | 24:09.001 race | 25:05.001 race | +3.86% |
| James McCarron III | 2021 | 16:50.001 race | 17:30.001 race | +3.96% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 20:03.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +3.99% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 17:40.001 race | 18:23.001 race | +4.06% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 17:54.001 race | 18:38.001 race | +4.10% |
| Camryn Flessel | 2021 | 22:13.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +4.65% |
| Skye Connell | 2021 | 22:22.001 race | 23:31.001 race | +5.14% |
| Collette Noordzij | 2021 | 23:45.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +5.47% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 22:44.001 race | 24:06.001 race | +6.01% |
| Leah Jin | 2021 | 24:36.001 race | 27:07.001 race | +10.23% |
| Rachel Wang | 2021 | 27:24.001 race | 33:41.001 race | +22.93% |