Pairwise course analysis

Groton Schoolvs.Noble and Greenough School 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower

+5.70%

Roughly 1:08 slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

253

Deep evidence

Median difference

+4.06%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+5.70%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+5.29%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Noble and Greenough School 5K fasterEvenNoble and Greenough School 5K slower

Confidence interval

+3.83% to +5.04%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonGroton SchoolNoble and Greenough School 5KDifference
Shivani Gulati202137:19.001 race33:10.002 races-11.12%
Nico Brown202124:28.001 race22:47.002 races-6.88%
Daniel Wang202127:19.001 race25:29.001 race-6.71%
Devin Gray202126:31.001 race24:50.004 races-6.35%
James Kerr202517:30.001 race16:37.001 race-5.05%
Nat Holland202425:53.002 races24:45.001 race-4.38%
Gemma Soukas202134:40.001 race33:15.002 races-4.09%
Liam Gavin202323:18.001 race22:22.001 race-4.01%
Hayley O'Connor202131:44.001 race30:31.003 races-3.83%
Neha Kommineni202129:06.001 race28:01.001 race-3.72%
Thomas Xue202123:56.001 race23:11.004 races-3.13%
Noah Peters202124:17.001 race23:34.004 races-2.95%
Adalynne Mertz202432:14.002 races31:21.001 race-2.74%
Lukas Leibisch202422:38.001 race22:03.001 race-2.58%
Eric Zhou202125:29.001 race24:51.003 races-2.49%
Emilie Andrews202131:12.001 race30:29.004 races-2.30%
Ella Berger202127:27.001 race26:52.004 races-2.13%
Amy Sharma201922:31.002 races22:03.001 race-2.07%
Colin Anderson202124:09.001 race23:46.004 races-1.59%
Ryan Sanghavi202123:46.001 race23:24.004 races-1.54%
Akshaya Sundraraj202132:30.001 race32:02.001 race-1.44%
Alex Janower202127:12.001 race26:56.005 races-0.98%
Paris Liston202121:11.001 race20:59.001 race-0.94%
Allison Park202128:58.001 race28:43.004 races-0.86%
Eddie Zhang202322:27.001 race22:16.001 race-0.82%
Ethan Train202123:47.001 race23:38.003 races-0.63%
Chris Thompson202320:11.001 race20:04.001 race-0.58%
Denmark Chirunga202529:49.001 race29:40.001 race-0.50%
Abner Machuca Diaz202323:05.001 race23:00.001 race-0.36%
David Hermanson202119:51.001 race19:47.003 races-0.34%
Charles Zhang202225:55.001 race25:50.001 race-0.32%
Justin Power202124:34.001 race24:30.002 races-0.27%
Emilio Manz202124:10.001 race24:07.004 races-0.21%
Sam Blank202418:39.001 race18:38.001 race-0.09%
Jerry Qin202121:58.001 race21:58.004 races0.00%
John Henr Lotz-McMillen202124:09.001 race24:11.002 races+0.14%
Rhodes Martinez202123:53.001 race23:55.004 races+0.14%
Jonathan Demosthene202321:40.001 race21:42.001 race+0.15%
Wes Shaller202421:06.001 race21:08.001 race+0.16%
John Joyce202317:27.001 race17:29.001 race+0.19%
Nico Badia202125:58.001 race26:01.003 races+0.19%
Rebecca Janfaza202128:08.001 race28:17.003 races+0.53%
Justin Lin202424:42.001 race24:50.001 race+0.54%
Sparsh Verma202124:27.001 race24:35.003 races+0.55%
Matthew Abati202121:23.001 race21:30.001 race+0.55%
Matthew Loose202121:17.001 race21:24.004 races+0.55%
Cara Chang201926:36.003 races26:46.001 race+0.63%
Jake Rosenfeld202423:46.001 race23:55.001 race+0.63%
Florence Morlock202123:34.001 race23:44.001 race+0.71%
Luke Hotra202122:26.001 race22:36.004 races+0.74%
Will McLane202119:29.001 race19:38.004 races+0.77%
Angelina Ha202422:57.001 race23:09.001 race+0.87%
Charlie Hall202121:47.001 race21:59.004 races+0.92%
Alexander Wasynczuk202320:41.001 race20:53.001 race+0.97%
Liam Walsh202517:30.001 race17:41.001 race+1.05%
Victor Fat202421:48.002 races22:03.001 race+1.15%
Madi Pugatch202427:34.001 race27:54.001 race+1.21%
Austin Reid202518:58.001 race19:12.001 race+1.23%
Arnav Harve202120:04.001 race20:20.003 races+1.33%
Alex Young202418:34.001 race18:49.001 race+1.35%
Ellie Sullivan202126:36.001 race26:58.001 race+1.38%
Liv Ding202426:30.002 races26:52.001 race+1.38%
Torey Mathews202126:07.001 race26:30.001 race+1.47%
Justin Jang202419:08.001 race19:27.001 race+1.66%
George Taggart202420:43.002 races21:04.001 race+1.69%
Immy Serifovic202124:22.001 race24:47.001 race+1.71%
David Yu202422:24.002 races22:47.001 race+1.71%
Chris Tillen202122:20.001 race22:43.003 races+1.72%
Maxwell Huang202122:03.001 race22:26.003 races+1.74%
Ben Guenther202119:04.001 race19:25.003 races+1.84%
Isla Scott202423:42.001 race24:10.001 race+1.97%
Alex Kovtunenko202422:50.001 race23:17.001 race+1.97%
Eric Liang202421:50.002 races22:16.001 race+1.98%
Richard Federico III202517:31.001 race17:52.001 race+2.00%
Noah Douglas202119:11.001 race19:35.004 races+2.09%
Rohin Pinisetti202122:39.001 race23:08.003 races+2.13%
Justin Li202124:52.001 race25:24.002 races+2.14%
Sofia Branco202129:31.001 race30:09.003 races+2.15%
Lindsay Popeo202123:14.001 race23:44.003 races+2.15%
Jason Minicozzi202416:54.001 race17:16.001 race+2.17%
Sophia Lee202125:30.001 race26:04.004 races+2.22%
Sophie Kopp-Hills202429:37.002 races30:17.001 race+2.25%
Molly Epker202124:14.001 race24:47.003 races+2.27%
Oliver Hochman202421:54.002 races22:24.001 race+2.28%
Owen Spring202422:53.001 race23:25.001 race+2.33%
Macy Lindberg202128:14.001 race28:55.002 races+2.42%
Alex Doctoroff202420:33.001 race21:03.001 race+2.43%
Taylor Hauff202423:12.001 race23:46.001 race+2.44%
Pauline McAndrew202427:11.001 race27:51.001 race+2.45%
Nolan Chong202422:13.001 race22:46.001 race+2.48%
Sydney Nelson202424:02.002 races24:39.001 race+2.57%
Carter Lightburn202419:00.002 races19:30.001 race+2.63%
Sam Millay202119:31.001 race20:02.004 races+2.65%
Sophie Majernik202124:10.001 race24:49.004 races+2.69%
Stephanie Mo202427:06.002 races27:50.001 race+2.71%
Carter Bartel202118:56.001 race19:29.004 races+2.90%
Jack Connors202317:33.001 race18:04.001 race+2.94%
Rachel Bueker202426:28.001 race27:15.001 race+2.96%
Kate McBride202122:32.001 race23:13.001 race+3.03%
Andrew Yang202123:26.001 race24:09.001 race+3.06%
Lara Poole202126:04.001 race26:52.002 races+3.07%
Lucy Wang202131:22.001 race32:20.001 race+3.08%
Emma Skelly202128:03.001 race28:55.003 races+3.09%
Margaret Kaneb202427:30.001 race28:21.001 race+3.09%
Ching Hei (Andre) Leung202130:32.001 race31:29.001 race+3.11%
Teddy Ellis202118:24.001 race18:59.001 race+3.17%
Alitza Soiffer202127:14.001 race28:06.001 race+3.18%
Sarah Ku202425:09.002 races25:58.001 race+3.25%
Celia Cheng202121:31.001 race22:13.004 races+3.25%
Eric Nie202124:31.001 race25:20.001 race+3.33%
Om Paithankar202121:57.001 race22:41.004 races+3.34%
Ethan Anderson202118:57.001 race19:35.003 races+3.34%
Nick Rodriguez202121:14.001 race21:57.004 races+3.38%
Lowndes Robinson202421:50.002 races22:35.001 race+3.44%
Charlotte Lokere202225:10.001 race26:02.001 race+3.44%
Sofia Mraz202124:20.001 race25:11.001 race+3.49%
Grace Millett202121:39.001 race22:25.001 race+3.54%
Emma Xi202424:15.001 race25:07.001 race+3.57%
Gabriela Coates202424:14.002 races25:06.001 race+3.58%
Lincoln Hyatt202517:38.001 race18:16.001 race+3.59%
Mariam Craig202121:42.001 race22:30.001 race+3.69%
Kevin Farmer202121:26.001 race22:14.001 race+3.73%
Jenny Phan202127:26.001 race28:29.001 race+3.83%
Ella Brown202127:24.001 race28:28.004 races+3.89%
Sebastian Culleton202317:30.001 race18:11.001 race+3.90%
Natalie Williamson202120:19.001 race21:08.001 race+4.02%
Kelly Zhao202421:22.002 races22:14.001 race+4.06%
Cesar Hernandez202324:32.001 race25:32.001 race+4.08%
Abigail Riordan202125:38.001 race26:42.001 race+4.16%
Max Hall202120:23.001 race21:14.004 races+4.17%
Patrick Albers202119:59.001 race20:49.002 races+4.17%
Taylor Holmes202320:06.001 race20:57.001 race+4.23%
Sam Dunn202118:15.001 race19:02.001 race+4.29%
Kate Wei202126:57.001 race28:08.003 races+4.39%
Chase Bellamy202418:34.002 races19:23.001 race+4.40%
Peter Favero202117:25.001 race18:11.001 race+4.40%
Jacob Casper202124:08.001 race25:12.003 races+4.42%
Evan Zhang202119:58.001 race20:51.001 race+4.42%
Connor Steele202118:38.001 race19:29.001 race+4.56%
Altan Marvi202123:54.001 race25:00.003 races+4.60%
Rohan Meier202120:46.001 race21:46.003 races+4.82%
Chris Athanasia202125:53.001 race27:08.001 race+4.83%
Amy Ma201926:55.002 races28:13.001 race+4.83%
Jack Bradner202121:42.001 race22:45.001 race+4.84%
Mitchell Ladd202123:43.001 race24:53.001 race+4.92%
Sadie Millett202121:09.001 race22:13.001 race+5.04%
Ryan Wei202118:05.001 race19:00.001 race+5.07%
Philip Holland202419:04.002 races20:02.001 race+5.07%
Ryan Shue202121:17.001 race22:22.001 race+5.09%
Ashton Vertus202425:39.002 races26:59.001 race+5.20%
Colin Bradley202517:56.001 race18:52.001 race+5.20%
Lindy Zhang202421:58.002 races23:08.001 race+5.31%
Alexa Burton202123:51.001 race25:10.001 race+5.52%
Quinn Taylor202425:53.001 race27:19.001 race+5.54%
Evan Ning202123:21.001 race24:39.001 race+5.57%
Sophia Deng201926:43.003 races28:13.001 race+5.61%
Josie Silk202121:38.001 race22:52.001 race+5.70%
Luis Sosa Espinal202322:24.001 race23:41.001 race+5.73%
Sofia Samuels202127:37.001 race29:12.003 races+5.73%
Kajsa Harrington202123:07.001 race24:27.003 races+5.77%
Max Kesselheim202518:52.001 race19:58.001 race+5.83%
Christopher Hovet202416:22.002 races17:21.001 race+6.01%
Toby Harrison202518:04.001 race19:10.001 race+6.09%
Alexander Colangelo202218:19.001 race19:26.001 race+6.10%
Caroline Locke201926:42.003 races28:20.001 race+6.12%
Kendra Snell202420:24.001 race21:39.001 race+6.13%
Aaron Stanger202118:22.001 race19:31.001 race+6.26%
Harrison Huang202124:12.001 race25:43.001 race+6.27%
Angie Feng202126:32.001 race28:13.002 races+6.34%
Elliot Smith202120:55.001 race22:15.001 race+6.37%
Wren Fortunoff201922:59.003 races24:27.001 race+6.38%
Henry Seilheimer202418:13.002 races19:23.001 race+6.40%
Annabelle Rogers202121:18.001 race22:40.001 race+6.42%
Liam Warren202417:54.002 races19:03.001 race+6.42%
James Good202120:40.001 race22:00.001 race+6.45%
Louis Chiasson202120:15.001 race21:34.001 race+6.50%
Sophia Wu201924:18.003 races25:53.001 race+6.52%
Jackson Pagan202119:37.001 race20:57.001 race+6.80%
Peter Leitzes202119:20.001 race20:39.001 race+6.81%
Myles Ndiritu202121:44.001 race23:13.001 race+6.83%
Samara Gorton202423:54.002 races25:32.001 race+6.83%
Olivia Fayemi201929:58.003 races32:03.001 race+6.95%
Emme Salyer202421:34.001 race23:04.001 race+6.96%
James Donahue202115:46.001 race16:52.001 race+6.98%
Ceres Moraitis202420:18.002 races21:43.001 race+6.98%
Megan Shi202126:43.001 race28:35.001 race+6.99%
Sid Chopra202529:20.001 race31:23.001 race+6.99%
Justine Lam202129:18.001 race31:21.001 race+7.00%
Henry Horvath202118:20.001 race19:37.001 race+7.00%
Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici202419:11.002 races20:32.001 race+7.04%
Ben Luo202120:46.001 race22:14.001 race+7.06%
Matthew Smith202221:33.001 race23:06.001 race+7.19%
Vedant Deokar202118:16.001 race19:36.001 race+7.30%
Zoe Campbell202121:37.001 race23:12.001 race+7.32%
Kolby Sahin202522:36.001 race24:16.001 race+7.37%
Nick Glaeser202522:34.001 race24:14.001 race+7.39%
Quentin DeFreitas202223:40.001 race25:25.001 race+7.39%
Alexander Cesaretti202119:57.001 race21:27.001 race+7.52%
Lucy Anderson201927:26.002 races29:30.001 race+7.53%
Elizabeth Girian201927:26.001 race29:30.001 race+7.53%
William Trautz202117:32.001 race18:52.001 race+7.60%
Jade Xiao202125:49.001 race27:48.001 race+7.68%
Kailin Shi202122:56.001 race24:44.001 race+7.85%
Joshua White202223:29.001 race25:20.001 race+7.88%
Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero202117:20.001 race18:42.001 race+7.88%
Ruby Tsai202124:04.001 race25:59.001 race+7.96%
Arec Keomurjian202118:36.001 race20:05.001 race+7.97%
Maxwell Rothman202422:31.001 race24:20.001 race+8.07%
Andrew Cao202124:54.001 race26:59.001 race+8.37%
Lucas Miller202220:11.001 race21:53.001 race+8.42%
Anthony Coston202221:09.001 race22:57.001 race+8.51%
Oliver Colbert202521:19.001 race23:09.001 race+8.60%
Myles McCusker202221:03.001 race22:52.001 race+8.63%
Paul Tompros202523:15.001 race25:18.001 race+8.82%
Yeabsira Gugssa201927:30.003 races29:56.001 race+8.85%
Robinson Noble202122:02.001 race23:59.001 race+8.85%
Lindsay Saunders202124:40.001 race26:51.003 races+8.85%
Julian Vidal202520:34.001 race22:24.001 race+8.91%
Jeremy Eaton202120:18.001 race22:07.001 race+8.95%
Nathan Pappas202121:02.001 race22:55.001 race+8.95%
Phoebe Lynch201929:09.002 races31:46.001 race+8.98%
Alexander Kirby202220:44.001 race22:37.001 race+9.08%
Gratian Ting202123:35.001 race25:45.001 race+9.19%
Claire Choe202121:15.001 race23:14.001 race+9.33%
Ameer Hasan202522:13.001 race24:20.001 race+9.53%
Zach Green202121:54.001 race24:04.004 races+9.89%
Davis Woolbert202118:47.001 race20:39.001 race+9.94%
Charlotte Maturo201926:26.003 races29:04.001 race+9.96%
Carver Porter202120:33.001 race22:37.001 race+10.06%
Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld202418:23.002 races20:17.001 race+10.34%
Andrew Rodriguez202121:29.001 race23:43.001 race+10.40%
Zidan Graham202127:20.001 race30:13.001 race+10.55%
Julia Torrey202121:19.001 race23:34.001 race+10.56%
Joey Caspar202121:12.001 race23:32.001 race+11.01%
Temi Martins Dosumu202524:41.001 race27:27.001 race+11.21%
Caroline Creasy202423:26.002 races26:05.001 race+11.31%
Braeden Moitoso202219:18.001 race21:36.001 race+11.92%
Gabriela Gil202423:25.002 races26:13.001 race+11.96%
Nick Costantino202122:28.001 race25:10.001 race+12.02%
Katie Reveno201922:22.002 races25:07.001 race+12.30%
Sophia Bueno202125:17.001 race28:34.001 race+12.99%
Nathaniel Voss202118:17.001 race20:44.001 race+13.40%
Kinh Kieu202229:06.001 race33:15.001 race+14.26%
Andy Chefetz202124:35.001 race28:09.001 race+14.51%
Michael Bobo202119:32.001 race22:40.001 race+16.04%
Tim Cassidy202121:19.001 race24:50.001 race+16.50%
John Fu202126:51.001 race31:26.001 race+17.07%
Jasper Hyatt202521:00.001 race24:52.001 race+18.41%
Aisling O'Connell201922:21.002 races26:30.001 race+18.57%
Nadia Fourie201923:24.001 race27:55.001 race+19.30%
Christina Chen201923:51.002 races28:55.001 race+21.24%
Luke Zhang202124:42.001 race30:14.001 race+22.40%
Molly Sheehan202122:28.001 race28:02.001 race+24.78%