Pairwise course analysis
Hotchkiss School 5Kvs.St. Mark's School Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Mark's School Championship Course runs slower
+1.35%
Roughly 16.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
35
Developing evidence
Median difference
+1.17%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.35%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.26%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.22% to +2.40%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Hotchkiss School 5K | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emlyn Joseph | 2024 | 20:03.001 race | 19:19.001 race | -3.66% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 18:09.001 race | 17:38.001 race | -2.85% |
| Gratian Ting | 2024 | 21:17.001 race | 20:41.001 race | -2.82% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 20:06.001 race | 19:36.001 race | -2.49% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 16:28.001 race | 16:07.001 race | -2.13% |
| Sam Leviton | 2024 | 18:01.001 race | 17:41.001 race | -1.85% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 17:35.001 race | 17:16.001 race | -1.80% |
| Dion Cheung | 2024 | 25:38.001 race | 25:11.001 race | -1.76% |
| Hudson Li | 2024 | 20:58.001 race | 20:45.001 race | -1.03% |
| Alex Sherman | 2024 | 19:39.001 race | 19:28.001 race | -0.93% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 17:52.001 race | 17:44.001 race | -0.75% |
| Kailin Shi | 2024 | 24:46.001 race | 24:44.002 races | -0.13% |
| Mira Anmeng Lu | 2024 | 24:52.001 race | 24:51.001 race | -0.07% |
| Esme Campbell | 2024 | 20:01.001 race | 20:01.001 race | 0.00% |
| Felix Stuart | 2024 | 20:17.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +0.25% |
| Jason Louie | 2024 | 18:24.001 race | 18:28.001 race | +0.36% |
| Isaac Wu | 2024 | 20:54.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +0.48% |
| Jack Good | 2024 | 18:30.001 race | 18:43.001 race | +1.17% |
| Armand Matijasevic | 2024 | 19:36.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +1.19% |
| Babikir Saeed | 2024 | 18:41.001 race | 18:55.001 race | +1.25% |
| Maksim Roman | 2024 | 18:50.001 race | 19:05.001 race | +1.33% |
| Margot Murphy-Hara | 2024 | 23:36.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +1.34% |
| Jace LiVigni | 2024 | 18:24.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +1.63% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2024 | 19:19.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +1.81% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2024 | 22:56.001 race | 23:26.001 race | +2.18% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 17:05.001 race | 17:28.001 race | +2.24% |
| Kailyn Love | 2024 | 22:15.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +2.25% |
| Elizabeth De Ramel | 2024 | 22:10.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +2.26% |
| Will Frazier | 2024 | 19:39.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +2.29% |
| Sebastian Colberg | 2024 | 19:01.001 race | 19:28.001 race | +2.37% |
| Torey Mathews | 2024 | 25:22.001 race | 26:05.001 race | +2.83% |
| Ching Hei (Andre) Leung | 2024 | 21:42.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +3.00% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2024 | 22:16.001 race | 23:26.001 race | +5.24% |
| Haotong Xue | 2024 | 17:56.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +5.67% |
| Joe Jia | 2024 | 20:57.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +21.72% |