Pairwise course analysis

LA 5K Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Middlesex 5K Course runs faster

-1.11%

Roughly 13.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

42

Strong evidence

Median difference

+0.33%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-1.11%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+5.29%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

-0.39% to +3.44%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonLA 5K CourseMiddlesex 5K CourseDifference
Nathaniel Voss202120:38.001 race19:06.001 race-7.43%
Thomas Romney202120:16.001 race19:07.001 race-5.67%
William Trautz202119:30.001 race18:30.001 race-5.13%
Davis Woolbert202120:21.001 race19:23.001 race-4.75%
James Donahue202116:53.001 race16:06.001 race-4.64%
Aaron Stanger202119:59.001 race19:06.001 race-4.42%
Eita Fuse202518:44.001 race18:14.001 race-2.67%
Sebastian Culleton202218:50.001 race18:24.001 race-2.30%
Miles Sandoski202119:29.001 race19:03.001 race-2.22%
Nashr El Auliya201921:43.001 race21:19.001 race-1.84%
Samuel Hinman202218:21.001 race18:01.001 race-1.82%
Evan Salhanick201921:44.001 race21:24.001 race-1.53%
John Joyce202218:08.001 race17:52.001 race-1.47%
Fitz Courtney202517:49.001 race17:37.001 race-1.12%
John Pena202523:33.001 race23:22.001 race-0.78%
Gardner Brown201922:56.001 race22:48.001 race-0.58%
Suhas Kaniyar202525:23.001 race25:17.001 race-0.39%
Eddie Zhang202221:40.001 race21:37.001 race-0.23%
Tori Duckworth201924:40.001 race24:44.001 race+0.27%
Molly Madigan201924:18.001 race24:22.001 race+0.27%
Jack Connors202217:39.001 race17:42.001 race+0.28%
Yamin Ibrahim202518:04.001 race18:08.001 race+0.37%
Eleanor Mayer201927:34.001 race27:42.001 race+0.48%
Liam Gavin202220:54.001 race21:03.001 race+0.72%
Miles Keller202518:53.001 race19:04.001 race+0.97%
Michael Kalinichenko202225:50.001 race26:11.001 race+1.35%
Timothy Snail202518:40.001 race18:57.001 race+1.52%
William Hansen202220:02.001 race20:21.001 race+1.58%
Chris Thompson202219:41.001 race20:02.001 race+1.78%
Joe Zhao201925:40.001 race26:20.001 race+2.60%
Adam Jac201923:02.001 race23:47.001 race+3.26%
Jonathan Demosthene202220:50.001 race21:34.001 race+3.52%
Declan Woolbert202518:10.001 race18:51.001 race+3.76%
Minho Eune201922:21.001 race23:12.001 race+3.80%
Oliver Kim201928:49.001 race29:55.001 race+3.82%
James Lyman201921:46.001 race23:08.001 race+6.28%
William Trautz202516:01.001 race17:04.001 race+6.56%
Alex Tobias201918:50.001 race20:23.001 race+8.23%
Ryan Li202522:30.001 race24:36.001 race+9.33%
Sam Kim201926:44.001 race29:48.001 race+11.47%
James Palumbo202521:12.001 race24:11.001 race+14.07%
Adam Jin201926:21.001 race35:28.001 race+34.60%