Pairwise course analysis
LA 5K Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-4.84%
Roughly 58.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
10
Limited evidence
Median difference
-10.42%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.84%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.26%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-13.38% to -8.43%
Scale shown
-14% to +14%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | LA 5K Course | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 29:52.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -19.59% |
| Amber Banks | 2021 | 26:05.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -14.89% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 23:54.002 races | 21:13.001 race | -11.23% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 23:35.002 races | 20:58.001 race | -11.10% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 29:43.001 race | 26:27.001 race | -10.99% |
| Chen-An Lin | 2021 | 32:01.001 race | 28:52.001 race | -9.84% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 27:40.002 races | 25:16.001 race | -8.67% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 21:12.002 races | 19:28.001 race | -8.18% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 24:14.002 races | 22:16.001 race | -8.12% |
| Bryant Huang | 2021 | 32:26.001 race | 30:29.001 race | -6.01% |