Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Andover 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Andover 5K runs faster
-3.55%
Roughly 42.6 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
5
Limited evidence
Median difference
-4.28%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.55%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.07%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-5.60% to -2.14%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Andover 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 19:07.001 race | 17:58.001 race | -6.02% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:23.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -5.07% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 18:17.001 race | -4.28% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 16:06.001 race | 15:36.001 race | -3.11% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 18:56.001 race | -0.87% |