Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-3.70%
Roughly 44.4 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
188
Deep evidence
Median difference
-1.99%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.70%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.88%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Bouchard Park 5K fasterEvenBouchard Park 5K slower
Confidence interval
-2.95% to -1.71%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Barber | 2024 | 24:49.002 races | 21:04.001 race | -15.11% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2023 | 28:27.001 race | 24:55.001 race | -12.42% |
| Mara Dubois | 2023 | 31:53.001 race | 28:12.001 race | -11.55% |
| Christina Hall | 2023 | 30:57.001 race | 27:23.001 race | -11.52% |
| Eliot Ragosa | 2019 | 33:57.003 races | 30:03.801 race | -11.45% |
| Riya Jain | 2023 | 31:48.001 race | 28:13.001 race | -11.27% |
| Catherine Curran | 2023 | 31:19.001 race | 27:52.001 race | -11.02% |
| Jerry Cao | 2024 | 22:54.001 race | 20:30.001 race | -10.48% |
| Annie Lopez | 2023 | 27:24.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -9.79% |
| Olivia Standish | 2024 | 24:32.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -9.78% |
| Jax Tran | 2024 | 25:15.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -9.44% |
| Sofia Branco | 2023 | 31:38.001 race | 28:49.001 race | -8.90% |
| Zach Green | 2023 | 23:24.001 race | 21:22.001 race | -8.69% |
| Nate Madden | 2023 | 22:34.001 race | 20:37.001 race | -8.64% |
| Ella Berger | 2023 | 26:09.001 race | 24:09.001 race | -7.65% |
| Lucy Wang | 2024 | 31:30.001 race | 29:07.001 race | -7.57% |
| Eva Zhao | 2024 | 31:28.001 race | 29:08.001 race | -7.42% |
| Vincent Gilbert | 2024 | 21:10.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -7.32% |
| Lucy Wu | 2024 | 32:08.001 race | 29:47.001 race | -7.31% |
| Max Liang | 2024 | 22:59.002 races | 21:19.001 race | -7.25% |
| Pepper Taylor | 2024 | 27:44.001 race | 25:45.001 race | -7.15% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2023 | 26:10.001 race | 24:18.001 race | -7.13% |
| Alex Kovtunenko | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 20:45.001 race | -6.95% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2024 | 26:54.001 race | 25:02.001 race | -6.94% |
| Bennett Walker | 2021 | 34:28.001 race | 32:05.401 race | -6.90% |
| Eliza Hirsch | 2019 | 41:12.002 races | 38:28.001 race | -6.63% |
| Sue Hayashi | 2024 | 26:35.002 races | 24:51.001 race | -6.52% |
| Isla Scott | 2024 | 23:33.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -6.51% |
| James Fair | 2023 | 21:05.001 race | 19:48.001 race | -6.09% |
| Elizabeth Lapides | 2024 | 23:23.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -5.99% |
| Matthew Loose | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -5.78% |
| John Park | 2024 | 30:55.001 race | 29:09.001 race | -5.71% |
| Raquel Frankel | 2023 | 29:12.001 race | 27:33.001 race | -5.65% |
| Leah Jin | 2021 | 27:07.001 race | 25:37.101 race | -5.53% |
| Ethan Yuan | 2024 | 23:33.002 races | 22:16.001 race | -5.45% |
| Jeffrey Liu | 2023 | 25:30.001 race | 24:07.001 race | -5.42% |
| Alex Spindt | 2024 | 23:10.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -5.40% |
| Henry McLane | 2023 | 18:14.001 race | 17:15.001 race | -5.39% |
| Time Tanglertsumphun | 2024 | 23:43.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -5.34% |
| Charlie Young | 2023 | 22:38.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -5.23% |
| Jake Rosenfeld | 2024 | 22:33.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -5.03% |
| Madi Pugatch | 2024 | 27:43.001 race | 26:20.001 race | -4.99% |
| Jayden Leung | 2023 | 22:22.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -4.84% |
| Justin Lee | 2023 | 20:40.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -4.84% |
| Brady Gomez | 2024 | 29:21.001 race | 27:56.001 race | -4.83% |
| Talia Frieze | 2024 | 25:07.001 race | 23:55.001 race | -4.78% |
| Cate O'Connor | 2021 | 25:00.001 race | 23:48.401 race | -4.77% |
| Skye Connell | 2021 | 23:31.001 race | 22:27.201 race | -4.52% |
| Taylor Hauff | 2024 | 23:30.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -4.47% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2023 | 20:10.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -4.46% |
| Allison Luo | 2024 | 23:23.002 races | 22:21.001 race | -4.42% |
| Charlie Hall | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 19:30.001 race | -4.41% |
| Steve Ma | 2024 | 22:19.001 race | 21:20.001 race | -4.41% |
| Will Grace | 2023 | 20:09.001 race | 19:17.001 race | -4.30% |
| Matt Palmer | 2024 | 18:46.001 race | 17:58.001 race | -4.26% |
| Anray Sheng | 2023 | 23:42.001 race | 22:43.001 race | -4.15% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2024 | 35:08.001 race | 33:41.001 race | -4.13% |
| Noah Douglas | 2023 | 17:46.001 race | 17:04.001 race | -3.94% |
| Alex DeChiara | 2024 | 21:12.002 races | 20:22.001 race | -3.93% |
| Katie Tantillo | 2024 | 22:34.002 races | 21:42.001 race | -3.84% |
| Michael Timmins | 2023 | 20:38.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -3.72% |
| Tim Churchill | 2023 | 17:31.001 race | 16:52.001 race | -3.71% |
| Allison Park | 2023 | 25:40.001 race | 24:44.001 race | -3.64% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2023 | 20:34.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -3.57% |
| Lukas Leibisch | 2024 | 21:07.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -3.55% |
| Devin Gray | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 19:12.001 race | -3.44% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:22.001 race | 19:41.501 race | -3.31% |
| Linda Qin | 2019 | 30:01.003 races | 29:01.401 race | -3.31% |
| Allan Lu | 2024 | 24:16.002 races | 23:28.001 race | -3.30% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2024 | 17:09.001 race | 16:36.001 race | -3.21% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 24:06.001 race | 23:20.401 race | -3.15% |
| Pipsa Palatsi | 2024 | 22:32.002 races | 21:50.001 race | -3.11% |
| Maxwell Huang | 2023 | 18:34.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -2.96% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 20:51.001 race | 20:14.201 race | -2.94% |
| Charlotte Friedmann | 2024 | 26:54.002 races | 26:08.001 race | -2.85% |
| Robert Sou | 2024 | 20:34.001 race | 20:00.001 race | -2.76% |
| Sunny Qian | 2024 | 21:01.001 race | 20:27.001 race | -2.70% |
| Theo Martin | 2024 | 23:39.002 races | 23:01.001 race | -2.68% |
| Angela Huffer | 2024 | 22:02.002 races | 21:28.001 race | -2.57% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2023 | 30:28.001 race | 29:41.001 race | -2.57% |
| Collette Noordzij | 2021 | 25:03.001 race | 24:24.501 race | -2.56% |
| Jessica Wu | 2024 | 26:52.001 race | 26:11.001 race | -2.54% |
| Stealla Curwin-Amfitheatrof | 2024 | 20:08.002 races | 19:38.001 race | -2.48% |
| Maya Daly | 2021 | 25:35.001 race | 24:57.101 race | -2.47% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 21:13.001 race | 20:42.101 race | -2.43% |
| Nina Douge | 2019 | 22:42.003 races | 22:10.001 race | -2.35% |
| Justin Jang | 2024 | 18:27.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -2.35% |
| Marvelous Ugwu | 2024 | 25:51.002 races | 25:15.001 race | -2.32% |
| Emme Salyer | 2024 | 22:03.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -2.19% |
| Alex Cheng | 2023 | 18:07.001 race | 17:44.001 race | -2.12% |
| Alexa Zhou | 2023 | 26:10.001 race | 25:38.001 race | -2.04% |
| Wes Shaller | 2024 | 20:33.001 race | 20:08.001 race | -2.03% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 20:53.002 races | 20:27.901 race | -2.00% |
| Rachel Bueker | 2024 | 25:52.001 race | 25:21.001 race | -2.00% |
| Camryn Flessel | 2021 | 23:15.001 race | 22:47.301 race | -1.99% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 25:17.003 races | 24:47.201 race | -1.96% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 19:09.001 race | -1.88% |
| Martin Erath | 2024 | 19:11.002 races | 18:50.001 race | -1.82% |
| Sebastien Aubourg | 2024 | 18:17.002 races | 17:57.001 race | -1.82% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 18:23.001 race | 18:03.001 race | -1.81% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 21:11.003 races | 20:48.601 race | -1.76% |
| Casey Coleman | 2024 | 19:55.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -1.76% |
| Maggie Cabot | 2024 | 22:02.002 races | 21:39.001 race | -1.74% |
| Alex Wang | 2024 | 23:26.001 race | 23:04.001 race | -1.56% |
| Cassidy Bruno | 2024 | 20:26.002 races | 20:07.001 race | -1.55% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 21:42.003 races | 21:21.901 race | -1.54% |
| Aly Correia | 2024 | 26:11.001 race | 25:47.001 race | -1.53% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 22:19.003 races | 21:59.601 race | -1.45% |
| Neo Wang | 2024 | 23:16.002 races | 22:59.001 race | -1.22% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 19:50.001 race | 19:36.001 race | -1.18% |
| Alex Young | 2024 | 18:25.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -1.18% |
| Daghan Konur | 2024 | 19:34.002 races | 19:21.001 race | -1.11% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2023 | 23:49.001 race | 23:34.001 race | -1.05% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 24:31.003 races | 24:16.001 race | -1.02% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 22:14.003 races | 22:00.501 race | -1.01% |
| Justin O'Toole | 2019 | 16:48.001 race | 16:37.901 race | -1.00% |
| Terry Qi | 2024 | 19:21.002 races | 19:10.001 race | -0.95% |
| Dylan Fu | 2024 | 19:33.002 races | 19:22.001 race | -0.94% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:46.001 race | 19:34.901 race | -0.94% |
| Emery Nordahl | 2023 | 23:50.001 race | 23:37.001 race | -0.91% |
| Catherine (Cate) Wacholz | 2021 | 25:05.001 race | 24:51.501 race | -0.90% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 22:10.003 races | 21:58.101 race | -0.89% |
| James McCarron III | 2021 | 17:30.001 race | 17:20.901 race | -0.87% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 18:45.003 races | 18:35.801 race | -0.82% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 26:11.003 races | 25:58.301 race | -0.81% |
| Emma Finkelstein | 2023 | 24:53.001 race | 24:42.001 race | -0.74% |
| Michael Cheng | 2019 | 22:00.003 races | 21:50.601 race | -0.71% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 19:52.002 races | 19:44.701 race | -0.61% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2021 | 24:59.001 race | 24:49.901 race | -0.61% |
| Alexei Liska | 2024 | 21:04.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -0.55% |
| Xander Starobin | 2019 | 25:01.003 races | 24:53.101 race | -0.53% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 16:48.003 races | 16:42.801 race | -0.52% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 19:49.002 races | 19:43.501 race | -0.46% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:15.003 races | 18:10.001 race | -0.46% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 21:33.003 races | 21:27.501 race | -0.43% |
| Grace Hu | 2019 | 21:09.003 races | 21:04.301 race | -0.37% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 27:34.003 races | 27:29.401 race | -0.28% |
| Logan Hoffman | 2024 | 20:38.001 race | 20:35.001 race | -0.24% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 20:49.001 race | 20:47.201 race | -0.14% |
| Eden Hossaena | 2024 | 37:14.001 race | 37:14.001 race | 0.00% |
| Leah Farb | 2023 | 24:03.001 race | 24:04.001 race | +0.07% |
| Anthony Billings | 2024 | 21:13.001 race | 21:14.001 race | +0.08% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 21:16.001 race | 21:17.601 race | +0.13% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 23:57.003 races | 23:59.601 race | +0.18% |
| Ben Luo | 2019 | 21:43.003 races | 21:45.401 race | +0.18% |
| Oliver Mitchell | 2019 | 24:29.003 races | 24:32.601 race | +0.25% |
| Alex Beys | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 22:25.001 race | +0.52% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 24:32.003 races | 24:40.401 race | +0.57% |
| Brianna Boucher | 2021 | 25:13.001 race | 25:22.101 race | +0.60% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 17:48.001 race | 17:54.801 race | +0.64% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 18:38.001 race | 18:45.401 race | +0.66% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2021 | 25:09.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +0.73% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 18:35.003 races | 18:43.201 race | +0.74% |
| Camille Destefano | 2021 | 29:00.001 race | 29:13.601 race | +0.78% |
| Gavin Cassidy | 2019 | 19:54.003 races | 20:03.501 race | +0.80% |
| Megan Shi | 2019 | 31:26.001 race | 31:42.201 race | +0.86% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 18:33.003 races | 18:43.801 race | +0.97% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 16:22.003 races | 16:31.601 race | +0.98% |
| Riley Eyman | 2021 | 22:53.001 race | 23:06.501 race | +0.98% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 25:38.003 races | 25:54.301 race | +1.06% |
| Allen Xia | 2021 | 23:06.001 race | 23:20.801 race | +1.07% |
| Henry Orraca-Cecil | 2024 | 18:35.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +1.17% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 20:34.003 races | 20:49.001 race | +1.22% |
| Ethan Chang | 2019 | 24:47.003 races | 25:06.601 race | +1.32% |
| Julian Dai | 2019 | 22:52.002 races | 23:11.201 race | +1.40% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 25:28.003 races | 25:52.301 race | +1.59% |
| Andy Chefetz | 2019 | 24:10.002 races | 24:33.101 race | +1.59% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 25:39.003 races | 26:04.801 race | +1.68% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 17:13.003 races | 17:31.601 race | +1.80% |
| Katherine Buckhout | 2021 | 22:47.001 race | 23:13.301 race | +1.92% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 22:26.003 races | 22:52.101 race | +1.94% |
| Raymond Li | 2019 | 21:48.002 races | 22:14.101 race | +2.00% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 17:28.003 races | 17:49.201 race | +2.02% |
| Celine Ding | 2024 | 27:22.001 race | 27:57.001 race | +2.13% |
| Jack Starobin | 2019 | 18:19.001 race | 18:42.501 race | +2.14% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 27:39.003 races | 28:14.601 race | +2.15% |
| Parker Lial | 2021 | 23:56.001 race | 24:29.601 race | +2.34% |
| Kate Wei | 2023 | 25:26.001 race | 26:05.001 race | +2.56% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2019 | 23:54.003 races | 24:31.501 race | +2.62% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2023 | 22:23.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +3.20% |
| Lucas Lu | 2021 | 22:50.001 race | 24:00.501 race | +5.15% |
| Amy Li | 2019 | 29:22.003 races | 30:59.101 race | +5.51% |
| Tyler Case | 2023 | 24:00.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +5.56% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 27:56.001 race | 29:39.501 race | +6.18% |
| Cally Garth | 2021 | 27:13.001 race | 29:13.401 race | +7.37% |
| Justin Lin | 2024 | 24:08.001 race | 26:45.001 race | +10.84% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2023 | 24:01.001 race | 28:10.001 race | +17.28% |
| Anika Ata | 2024 | 21:49.002 races | 26:09.001 race | +19.86% |