Pairwise course analysis

Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Groton School

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Groton School runs faster

-3.06%

Roughly 36.7 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

292

Deep evidence

Median difference

-2.31%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-3.06%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+5.35%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Groton School fasterEvenGroton School slower

Confidence interval

-3.00% to -1.87%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonMiddlesex 5K CourseGroton SchoolDifference
Justine Lam201939:43.002 races28:35.001 race-28.03%
Linda Wang202537:45.002 races29:50.001 race-20.97%
Nick Noon202531:38.002 races26:13.001 race-17.12%
Vincent Gilbert202524:00.001 race20:31.001 race-14.51%
Ashton Vertus202429:56.001 race25:39.002 races-14.31%
Brady Gomez202530:36.002 races26:17.001 race-14.11%
Sofia Guisti202433:20.001 race29:04.002 races-12.80%
Ayo Pickering202433:20.001 race29:04.002 races-12.80%
Sebastian Canizares201925:02.002 races22:03.001 race-11.92%
Michael Lu202224:10.001 race21:25.003 races-11.38%
Daniel Chow202536:17.001 race32:20.001 race-10.89%
Steve Ma202524:45.002 races22:07.001 race-10.64%
Jasper Clark202427:08.001 race24:21.002 races-10.26%
Caitlin Fitzgerald202124:36.001 race22:05.001 race-10.23%
Kit Vernon202333:56.001 race30:36.001 race-9.82%
Lawrence Chen202529:00.002 races26:11.001 race-9.71%
Pipsa Palatsi202326:34.004 races24:00.001 race-9.66%
Ty Wilschut201929:07.002 races26:27.001 race-9.16%
Kiernan Patel202524:45.002 races22:30.001 race-9.09%
Haewon Kim202535:40.002 races32:28.001 race-8.97%
Christina Chen202225:50.001 race23:37.002 races-8.58%
Henry Seilheimer202419:55.001 race18:13.002 races-8.54%
Husayn Ladha202226:21.001 race24:08.002 races-8.41%
Emre Sahin202523:13.001 race21:16.001 race-8.40%
Gabriela Gill202223:50.001 race21:53.002 races-8.18%
Congle Ye202528:14.002 races25:59.001 race-7.97%
Katie Tantillo202523:34.002 races21:42.001 race-7.92%
Evi Robb202326:49.001 race24:46.001 race-7.64%
Allison Luo202326:08.003 races24:16.001 race-7.14%
Anika Ata202523:34.002 races21:54.001 race-7.07%
Owen Wang201923:12.001 race21:34.001 race-7.04%
Jessica Wu202529:30.002 races27:27.001 race-6.95%
Samara Gorton202425:40.001 race23:54.002 races-6.88%
Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici202420:36.001 race19:11.002 races-6.88%
Penelope Tregoe202225:25.001 race23:41.002 races-6.82%
Daichi Seki201923:33.001 race21:58.001 race-6.72%
Shreya Jain201929:28.002 races27:30.001 race-6.67%
Eric Liang202221:46.001 race20:23.003 races-6.36%
Allan Lu202525:49.002 races24:11.001 race-6.33%
Sarah Ku202426:48.001 race25:09.002 races-6.16%
Angela Huffer202523:05.002 races21:43.001 race-5.92%
Andres Palacios202220:15.001 race19:04.002 races-5.84%
Olivia Oates202529:32.002 races27:49.001 race-5.81%
Ray Tie202324:42.004 races23:16.001 race-5.80%
Lily Makepeace202327:27.001 race25:53.001 race-5.71%
Eric Ge202219:32.001 race18:26.002 races-5.63%
Casey Coleman202521:24.002 races20:12.001 race-5.61%
Emma Xi202425:41.001 race24:15.001 race-5.58%
Kelly Zhao202422:36.001 race21:22.002 races-5.46%
Adalynne Mertz202434:05.001 race32:14.002 races-5.43%
Henry Orraca-Cecil202519:59.001 race18:54.001 race-5.42%
Carter Lightburn202220:18.001 race19:12.003 races-5.42%
Alexei Liska202522:46.002 races21:32.001 race-5.42%
Sarah Ku202229:58.001 race28:22.002 races-5.34%
Kylie Bogar202130:37.001 race28:59.001 race-5.33%
Jovic Stachelski202520:06.002 races19:02.001 race-5.31%
Alene Fernandes201922:52.002 races21:40.001 race-5.25%
Alexa Adams202126:06.001 race24:44.001 race-5.24%
Alex DeChiara202522:00.001 race20:51.001 race-5.23%
William Trautz202118:30.001 race17:32.001 race-5.23%
Chase Bellamy202221:28.001 race20:21.003 races-5.20%
Oliver Hochman202423:06.001 race21:54.002 races-5.19%
Pipsa Palatsi202523:08.002 races21:56.001 race-5.19%
Sunny Qian202520:54.002 races19:49.001 race-5.18%
Cameron Baylor202325:48.001 race24:30.001 race-5.04%
David Yang202323:20.004 races22:10.001 race-5.00%
Cassidy Bruno202521:19.002 races20:16.001 race-4.93%
Sahovan Modi202224:43.001 race23:30.002 races-4.92%
Jessie Hoffman202529:28.002 races28:01.001 race-4.92%
Brandon Christ201920:40.001 race19:39.001 race-4.92%
Jude Hebb202521:20.002 races20:18.001 race-4.84%
Megan Corry202123:23.001 race22:17.001 race-4.70%
Kate McBride202323:49.004 races22:42.001 race-4.69%
Ethan Yuan202324:33.002 races23:24.001 race-4.68%
Brooke Hansen202123:12.001 race22:07.001 race-4.67%
Jeremy Bullock202317:32.001 race16:43.001 race-4.66%
Stella Curwin-Amfitheatrof202520:08.002 races19:12.001 race-4.64%
Sunny Qian202324:00.004 races22:54.001 race-4.58%
Trip Wight202221:15.001 race20:17.002 races-4.55%
Gavin Shan201928:57.001 race27:39.001 race-4.49%
Jeremy Gall202219:54.001 race19:02.003 races-4.36%
Maxwell Rothman202423:32.001 race22:31.001 race-4.32%
Nathaniel Voss202119:06.001 race18:17.001 race-4.28%
Lindsey Bennett202125:06.001 race24:02.001 race-4.25%
Lucas Mylon202120:01.002 races19:10.001 race-4.25%
Chase Phillips202520:33.002 races19:41.001 race-4.22%
Lang Burgess202227:18.001 race26:09.002 races-4.21%
Stephanie Mo202229:54.001 race28:39.001 race-4.18%
Robert Sou202520:47.001 race19:56.001 race-4.09%
Jess Fatzinger201929:30.001 race28:19.001 race-4.01%
Damien West202220:54.001 race20:04.003 races-3.99%
Terry Qi202519:47.002 races19:00.001 race-3.96%
Sebastian Culleton202318:13.001 race17:30.001 race-3.93%
Christopher Hovet202417:02.001 race16:22.002 races-3.91%
Adam Ewing201921:11.003 races20:22.001 race-3.86%
Aaron Stanger202119:06.001 race18:22.001 race-3.84%
Owen Cronan202221:47.001 race20:57.002 races-3.83%
David Yu202423:17.001 race22:24.002 races-3.79%
Ella Richards202124:40.001 race23:44.001 race-3.78%
Sophia Lando201926:34.001 race25:34.001 race-3.76%
Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld202419:06.001 race18:23.002 races-3.75%
Liam Warren202221:25.001 race20:38.003 races-3.66%
Cate Corbett202522:02.002 races21:15.001 race-3.56%
Chase Bellamy202419:15.001 race18:34.002 races-3.55%
Nicolas Huaco202318:35.001 race17:56.001 race-3.50%
Stealla Curwin-Amfitheatrof202321:58.003 races21:12.001 race-3.49%
Eliza Hirsch201941:12.002 races39:46.001 race-3.48%
Thomas Valderrama202321:46.001 race21:01.001 race-3.45%
Lindy Zhang202422:45.001 race21:58.002 races-3.44%
Liv Ding202427:26.001 race26:30.002 races-3.40%
Joaquin Lodin202523:33.002 races22:45.001 race-3.40%
Virginia Thompson202124:45.001 race23:55.001 race-3.37%
Chloe Clifford202120:31.001 race19:50.001 race-3.33%
Benjamin Hebbel202318:07.001 race17:31.001 race-3.31%
Sebastian Sepulveda201922:45.001 race22:00.001 race-3.30%
Christopher Hovet202217:45.001 race17:10.003 races-3.29%
Cole JV Stewart201926:31.002 races25:40.001 race-3.21%
Mitchell Ladd202124:30.002 races23:43.001 race-3.20%
Ryan Chiari202118:52.001 race18:16.001 race-3.18%
Brianna Zhang202227:19.001 race26:27.002 races-3.17%
Davis Woolbert202119:23.001 race18:47.001 race-3.10%
Anton Balyuk202320:05.004 races19:28.001 race-3.07%
Enock Musyoka201917:29.001 race16:57.001 race-3.05%
Jack Connors202318:06.001 race17:33.001 race-3.04%
Sebastien Amor202518:15.002 races17:42.001 race-3.01%
Clare LaMattina202123:39.001 race22:57.001 race-2.96%
John Park202326:50.003 races26:03.001 race-2.92%
Colleen Leary202122:55.001 race22:15.001 race-2.91%
Thomas Ireland202322:38.004 races21:59.001 race-2.87%
Maddie Stearns202122:38.001 race21:59.001 race-2.87%
Owen Spring202423:33.001 race22:53.001 race-2.83%
Jaden Smith202119:51.001 race19:18.001 race-2.77%
Eric Liu202322:18.001 race21:41.001 race-2.77%
Jillian Robertson201922:19.003 races21:42.001 race-2.76%
Megan Shi202127:28.002 races26:43.001 race-2.73%
Allison Luo202523:29.001 race22:51.001 race-2.70%
Vincent Gilbert202321:07.003 races20:33.001 race-2.68%
Nick Costantino202317:30.004 races17:02.001 race-2.67%
Patrick Riley201924:33.001 race23:54.001 race-2.65%
Aryan Mago202221:44.001 race21:10.003 races-2.61%
Shaniece Nugent201926:30.001 race25:49.001 race-2.58%
Paul McLaughlin202220:54.001 race20:22.002 races-2.55%
Dylan Fu202520:12.001 race19:42.001 race-2.48%
Zachary Lim202425:01.001 race24:24.002 races-2.47%
Cassidy Bruno202321:11.004 races20:40.001 race-2.44%
Alexander Zhao202523:37.002 races23:04.001 race-2.33%
Vivan Das202218:59.001 race18:33.003 races-2.28%
Kogo Bennsion202221:14.001 race20:45.003 races-2.28%
Liam Warren202418:19.001 race17:54.002 races-2.27%
David Latham201917:39.003 races17:15.001 race-2.27%
Elizabeth Gatto201926:11.003 races25:36.001 race-2.23%
Noah Divon202322:33.001 race22:03.001 race-2.22%
Xavier Smith202325:07.003 races24:34.001 race-2.19%
Meena Menon201922:10.003 races21:41.001 race-2.18%
Linda Qin201930:01.003 races29:22.001 race-2.17%
Carter Lightburn202419:25.001 race19:00.002 races-2.15%
Phoebe Lu201925:28.003 races24:56.001 race-2.09%
Jack Lionette202216:43.001 race16:22.003 races-2.09%
Sophie Kopp-Hills202430:15.001 race29:37.002 races-2.09%
James Donahue202116:06.001 race15:46.001 race-2.07%
Luke Taylor202318:48.003 races18:25.001 race-2.04%
Benjamin Jiang202323:34.001 race23:06.002 races-1.98%
Maanasi Chintamani201925:38.003 races25:08.001 race-1.95%
Taylor Holmes202320:29.001 race20:06.001 race-1.87%
Owen Barry202320:03.004 races19:41.001 race-1.83%
Abby Cherry202127:31.001 race27:01.001 race-1.82%
Abigail Riordan202126:06.002 races25:38.001 race-1.79%
Ayur Vallecha202218:52.001 race18:32.003 races-1.77%
Luis Sosa Espinal202322:48.001 race22:24.001 race-1.75%
Rosie Qin201925:39.003 races25:12.001 race-1.75%
Izzy Hall202424:04.001 race23:40.002 races-1.66%
Jade Xiao202126:13.003 races25:49.001 race-1.53%
Ryder Cavanagh202218:42.001 race18:25.002 races-1.52%
Matt Wing202116:56.002 races16:42.001 race-1.38%
Ethan Chang201924:47.003 races24:27.001 race-1.34%
Iliana Tassev202329:49.004 races29:27.001 race-1.23%
Penelope Tregoe202424:43.001 race24:25.001 race-1.21%
Celine Ding202527:28.002 races27:08.001 race-1.21%
Pauline McAndrew202427:31.001 race27:11.001 race-1.21%
Sue Hayashi202329:52.003 races29:31.001 race-1.17%
Ross Tejeda202117:09.001 race16:57.001 race-1.17%
Cate Corbett202320:03.004 races19:49.001 race-1.16%
Mariam Craig202121:57.003 races21:42.001 race-1.14%
Lindy Zhang202223:32.001 race23:16.002 races-1.13%
Stephanie Mo202427:24.001 race27:06.002 races-1.09%
Amelia Stevens201924:31.003 races24:16.001 race-1.02%
Arhant Ghanta201924:54.001 race24:41.001 race-0.87%
Mia Peng201927:34.003 races27:20.001 race-0.85%
Tanglertsumphun Time202322:41.002 races22:30.001 race-0.81%
Sophia Hansen202122:43.001 race22:32.001 race-0.81%
Presley Bruno202525:37.002 races25:25.001 race-0.78%
Gabby Walsh201920:34.003 races20:26.001 race-0.65%
Grace Luettgen201924:32.003 races24:23.001 race-0.61%
Annabelle Rogers201921:42.003 races21:35.001 race-0.54%
Sophia Ronchetti201931:04.001 race30:54.001 race-0.54%
Zan Danoff201918:45.003 races18:39.001 race-0.53%
James Pener202118:18.001 race18:13.001 race-0.46%
Cate Devaney202126:18.001 race26:11.001 race-0.44%
Luke Driscoll202121:05.001 race21:00.001 race-0.40%
Grace Millett202121:44.003 races21:39.001 race-0.38%
Peter Favero202117:29.003 races17:25.001 race-0.38%
Eddie Zhang202322:32.001 race22:27.001 race-0.37%
Charlotte Wolford201929:04.002 races28:58.001 race-0.34%
Ana Quijano202327:04.001 race26:59.001 race-0.31%
Sydney Nelson202424:05.001 race24:02.002 races-0.21%
Logan Hoffman202320:47.004 races20:45.001 race-0.16%
Cesar Hernandez202324:34.001 race24:32.001 race-0.14%
Sadie Millett202320:12.004 races20:11.001 race-0.08%
Josie Silk202121:39.003 races21:38.001 race-0.08%
Margaret Kaneb202427:30.001 race27:30.001 race0.00%
Ruby Massengale201927:39.003 races27:39.001 race0.00%
Scarlett Gustafson202525:20.002 races25:21.001 race+0.07%
Nina Douge201922:42.003 races22:43.001 race+0.07%
Lucy Wang202131:20.002 races31:22.001 race+0.11%
Justin Li201924:31.003 races24:33.001 race+0.14%
Mariam Craig201922:26.003 races22:28.001 race+0.15%
Josie Silk201922:14.003 races22:18.001 race+0.30%
Stella Pham202527:00.002 races27:06.001 race+0.37%
Ben Luo202120:41.002 races20:46.001 race+0.40%
Peter Favero201918:35.003 races18:40.001 race+0.45%
Gabriela Coates202424:07.001 race24:14.002 races+0.48%
Eloise Daniello202122:46.001 race22:53.001 race+0.51%
Theo Martin202521:12.001 race21:19.001 race+0.55%
Rileigh Murphy-Morris202126:12.001 race26:21.001 race+0.57%
Harrison Huang202526:14.001 race26:24.001 race+0.64%
Ethan Gu202520:50.001 race20:58.001 race+0.64%
Megan Shi201931:26.001 race31:39.001 race+0.69%
Cooper Austen201916:48.003 races16:55.001 race+0.69%
Grace Hu201921:09.003 races21:18.001 race+0.71%
Henry Horvath202118:12.003 races18:20.001 race+0.73%
Caroline Stilwell202525:10.002 races25:23.001 race+0.86%
Luke Peabody202319:25.001 race19:36.001 race+0.94%
Henry Horvath201920:53.002 races21:05.001 race+0.96%
Caleb Krueger201918:33.003 races18:44.001 race+0.99%
Stone Shen201919:52.002 races20:04.001 race+1.01%
Amy Li201929:22.003 races29:40.001 race+1.02%
Ethan Paek201920:45.001 race20:58.001 race+1.04%
Marvelous Ugwu202525:08.002 races25:24.001 race+1.06%
Vedant Deokar201921:33.003 races21:47.001 race+1.08%
Vedant Deokar202118:04.003 races18:16.001 race+1.11%
Kate McBride202122:17.003 races22:32.001 race+1.12%
Eliot Ragosa201933:57.003 races34:21.001 race+1.18%
Cannon Caspar201918:10.003 races18:23.001 race+1.19%
Alexander Wasynczuk202320:26.001 race20:41.001 race+1.22%
Mitchell Ladd202323:09.003 races23:28.001 race+1.37%
Katie Tantillo202323:28.004 races23:48.001 race+1.42%
Mia McLean202122:54.001 race23:14.001 race+1.46%
Julian Barber202519:59.001 race20:18.001 race+1.58%
Annabelle Rogers202120:58.003 races21:18.001 race+1.59%
Hyuntae Choi201922:38.003 races23:01.001 race+1.69%
Sadie Millett202120:47.003 races21:09.001 race+1.76%
Ben Luo201921:43.003 races22:06.001 race+1.77%
Sean McLaughlin201919:49.002 races20:10.001 race+1.77%
Chris Thompson202319:48.001 race20:11.001 race+1.94%
Florence Morlock202323:47.002 races24:16.001 race+2.03%
Liam Gavin202322:50.001 race23:18.001 race+2.04%
Sophia Bueno202124:46.003 races25:17.001 race+2.09%
Raymond Li201921:48.002 races22:16.001 race+2.14%
John Joyce202317:05.001 race17:27.001 race+2.15%
Michael Cheng201922:00.003 races22:29.001 race+2.20%
Katie Wipf202120:48.001 race21:17.001 race+2.32%
Andrew Harris201917:28.003 races17:54.001 race+2.48%
Charles Jackivicz202318:21.001 race18:50.001 race+2.63%
Jonathan Demosthene202321:06.001 race21:40.001 race+2.69%
Matt Wing201917:28.003 races17:57.001 race+2.77%
Sebastien Aubourg202318:57.003 races19:30.001 race+2.90%
Allis Seifer202531:47.002 races32:45.001 race+3.04%
Xander Starobin201925:01.003 races25:47.001 race+3.06%
Maya Sidhu201923:57.003 races24:42.001 race+3.13%
Cameron Gonzalez202318:19.001 race18:54.001 race+3.18%
Alyssa Ho202324:52.001 race25:40.001 race+3.22%
Catherine Bain202323:49.002 races24:36.001 race+3.29%
Tim Cassidy201923:54.003 races24:42.001 race+3.35%
Luke Zhang202320:37.002 races21:19.001 race+3.40%
Justine Lam202128:13.003 races29:18.001 race+3.84%
Abner Machuca Diaz202322:12.001 race23:05.001 race+3.98%
Emily Williams202122:57.001 race23:59.001 race+4.50%
Gavin Cassidy201919:54.003 races20:49.001 race+4.61%
Oliver Mitchell201924:29.003 races25:38.001 race+4.70%
Jenny Phan202126:11.002 races27:26.001 race+4.77%
Julian Dai201922:52.002 races23:59.001 race+4.88%
Florence Morlock202122:23.003 races23:34.001 race+5.29%
Kiet Nguyen201925:23.001 race26:52.001 race+5.84%
Justin O'Toole201916:48.001 race17:49.001 race+6.05%
Greg JV Linton201927:30.002 races29:32.001 race+7.39%
Anika Ata202321:53.004 races23:48.001 race+8.76%
Neha Kommineni202126:41.003 races29:06.001 race+9.06%
Catherine Bain202125:36.002 races28:23.001 race+10.87%
Terry Qi202321:45.004 races24:17.001 race+11.65%
Andy Chefetz201924:10.002 races27:09.001 race+12.34%
Emre Sahin202522:06.001 race25:31.001 race+15.46%
Charlotte Jones202224:13.001 race28:33.001 race+17.89%