Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Milton Standard 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Milton Standard 5K runs faster
-2.57%
Roughly 30.9 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
237
Deep evidence
Median difference
-2.55%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.57%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.87%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Milton Standard 5K fasterEvenMilton Standard 5K slower
Confidence interval
-3.55% to -2.25%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Milton Standard 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Chu | 2023 | 30:47.001 race | 21:38.001 race | -29.72% |
| Alyssa Liu | 2025 | 32:45.001 race | 25:54.003 races | -20.92% |
| Daniel Chow | 2025 | 36:17.001 race | 29:18.001 race | -19.25% |
| Isabel Luo | 2025 | 30:03.001 race | 24:30.003 races | -18.47% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 29:45.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -16.92% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2023 | 28:27.001 race | 24:38.001 race | -13.42% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 27:06.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -13.10% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2023 | 26:10.001 race | 22:59.001 race | -12.17% |
| Sofia Branco | 2023 | 31:38.001 race | 27:54.001 race | -11.80% |
| Nick Proudlove | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 20:30.001 race | -11.32% |
| Vincent Gilbert | 2025 | 24:00.001 race | 21:19.001 race | -11.18% |
| Christina Hall | 2023 | 30:57.001 race | 27:35.001 race | -10.88% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 22:38.001 race | 20:11.001 race | -10.82% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 25:26.001 race | 22:50.001 race | -10.22% |
| Evi Robb | 2023 | 26:49.001 race | 24:15.001 race | -9.57% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 25:13.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -9.32% |
| Torey Mathews | 2023 | 26:39.001 race | 24:10.002 races | -9.32% |
| Henry Lin | 2025 | 27:59.001 race | 25:23.002 races | -9.29% |
| Celine Ding | 2025 | 29:08.002 races | 26:26.001 race | -9.27% |
| John Wallace | 2021 | 27:11.001 race | 24:40.001 race | -9.26% |
| Ella Cocchi | 2025 | 32:28.001 race | 29:30.003 races | -9.14% |
| Peter Abenante | 2021 | 27:19.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -8.72% |
| William Nass | 2025 | 22:56.001 race | 20:56.002 races | -8.72% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 25:06.001 race | 22:55.001 race | -8.70% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2023 | 23:24.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -8.48% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2023 | 25:38.001 race | 23:37.001 race | -7.87% |
| Haotong Xue | 2025 | 19:03.001 race | 17:37.003 races | -7.52% |
| Ella Berger | 2023 | 26:09.001 race | 24:14.001 race | -7.33% |
| Esme Campbell | 2025 | 21:02.001 race | 19:30.003 races | -7.29% |
| Nate Madden | 2023 | 22:34.001 race | 20:58.001 race | -7.09% |
| Laura Meli | 2025 | 37:11.001 race | 34:37.003 races | -6.90% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 18:26.001 race | 17:10.001 race | -6.87% |
| Dion Cheung | 2023 | 28:11.001 race | 26:16.002 races | -6.80% |
| Matthew Loose | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 18:33.001 race | -6.71% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2023 | 24:26.001 race | 22:49.001 race | -6.62% |
| Jax Tran | 2025 | 22:12.002 races | 20:44.001 race | -6.61% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2023 | 18:35.001 race | 17:24.001 race | -6.37% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2022 | 22:32.001 race | 21:06.001 race | -6.36% |
| Finley Long | 2023 | 21:54.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -6.24% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2023 | 24:05.001 race | 22:35.002 races | -6.23% |
| Zach Green | 2023 | 23:24.001 race | 21:57.001 race | -6.20% |
| Eleanor Lial | 2024 | 21:55.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -6.16% |
| David Xiong | 2023 | 20:25.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -6.12% |
| Pipsa Palatsi | 2025 | 23:13.002 races | 21:49.001 race | -6.03% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 24:36.001 race | 23:08.001 race | -5.96% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 2023 | 17:32.001 race | 16:30.001 race | -5.89% |
| Avery Gaffney | 2025 | 24:45.001 race | 23:18.002 races | -5.86% |
| Charlie Young | 2023 | 22:38.001 race | 21:19.001 race | -5.82% |
| Allan Lu | 2025 | 25:23.002 races | 23:55.001 race | -5.78% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 26:32.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -5.72% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2025 | 24:32.001 race | 23:08.003 races | -5.71% |
| Kira Morales | 2023 | 24:24.001 race | 23:01.001 race | -5.67% |
| Thomas Valderrama | 2023 | 21:46.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -5.51% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2023 | 21:36.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -5.40% |
| Isabella Chen | 2025 | 25:36.001 race | 24:14.003 races | -5.34% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 26:53.001 race | 25:29.001 race | -5.21% |
| Henry McLane | 2023 | 18:14.001 race | 17:18.001 race | -5.12% |
| Anya Carroll | 2024 | 27:08.001 race | 25:45.001 race | -5.10% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2023 | 20:22.001 race | 19:22.001 race | -4.91% |
| Erin Crisafi | 2021 | 26:11.001 race | 24:54.001 race | -4.90% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2023 | 20:10.001 race | 19:11.001 race | -4.88% |
| Annie Lopez | 2023 | 27:24.001 race | 26:07.001 race | -4.68% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2023 | 24:01.001 race | 22:54.003 races | -4.65% |
| Mira Anmeng Lu | 2023 | 26:15.001 race | 25:02.001 race | -4.63% |
| Charlie Hall | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -4.49% |
| Raquel Frankel | 2023 | 29:12.001 race | 27:55.001 race | -4.39% |
| Alexa Burton | 2023 | 24:39.001 race | 23:34.002 races | -4.39% |
| Kate Wei | 2023 | 25:26.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -4.33% |
| Nathan Ma | 2023 | 26:20.001 race | 25:12.001 race | -4.30% |
| Zoe Campbell | 2023 | 22:18.001 race | 21:21.003 races | -4.26% |
| Will Grace | 2023 | 20:09.001 race | 19:18.001 race | -4.22% |
| Grant Wheelan | 2025 | 19:28.001 race | 18:41.003 races | -4.02% |
| Michael Rosa | 2025 | 26:20.001 race | 25:17.003 races | -3.99% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2025 | 19:17.001 race | 18:31.003 races | -3.98% |
| Lucas Liu | 2022 | 21:02.001 race | 20:13.001 race | -3.88% |
| Emre Sahin | 2025 | 22:06.001 race | 21:15.001 race | -3.85% |
| Phoebe Quinn | 2025 | 22:44.001 race | 21:52.003 races | -3.81% |
| Esme Campbell | 2023 | 22:19.001 race | 21:28.003 races | -3.81% |
| Lucy Walker | 2024 | 23:14.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -3.80% |
| Devin Gray | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -3.77% |
| Alice Wang | 2023 | 27:05.001 race | 26:04.001 race | -3.75% |
| Benjamin Hebbel | 2023 | 18:07.001 race | 17:27.001 race | -3.68% |
| Jayden Leung | 2023 | 22:22.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -3.65% |
| Taylor Krepps | 2025 | 27:03.001 race | 26:04.003 races | -3.64% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2022 | 23:02.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -3.62% |
| Kiernan Patel | 2025 | 22:37.002 races | 21:48.001 race | -3.61% |
| Pablo Paxtor | 2023 | 19:26.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -3.60% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2023 | 20:37.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -3.56% |
| Amelia Simoneau | 2025 | 27:24.001 race | 26:26.003 races | -3.53% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2022 | 23:02.001 race | 22:14.001 race | -3.47% |
| Kailin Shi | 2023 | 24:36.001 race | 23:45.002 races | -3.46% |
| Robert Sou | 2025 | 20:47.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -3.45% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 21:24.001 race | 20:40.001 race | -3.43% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 18:51.001 race | -3.42% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 26:33.001 race | 25:39.001 race | -3.39% |
| Cate Corbett | 2025 | 21:49.002 races | 21:05.001 race | -3.36% |
| Ana Quijano | 2023 | 27:04.001 race | 26:11.001 race | -3.26% |
| Jennifer Li | 2023 | 26:22.001 race | 25:31.002 races | -3.22% |
| Justin Lin | 2024 | 24:08.001 race | 23:22.001 race | -3.18% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 23:12.001 race | 22:28.001 race | -3.16% |
| Emilio Manz | 2023 | 21:20.001 race | 20:40.001 race | -3.12% |
| Finley Long | 2022 | 21:05.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -3.08% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 22:40.001 race | -3.06% |
| Maxwell Huang | 2023 | 18:34.001 race | 18:00.001 race | -3.05% |
| Jace LiVigni | 2025 | 18:36.001 race | 18:02.002 races | -3.05% |
| Miles Johnson | 2024 | 26:13.001 race | 25:26.001 race | -2.99% |
| Griffin Kelleher | 2025 | 18:07.001 race | 17:35.002 races | -2.94% |
| Noah Douglas | 2023 | 17:46.001 race | 17:15.001 race | -2.91% |
| Emma Finkelstein | 2023 | 24:53.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -2.88% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2023 | 23:46.001 race | 23:05.001 race | -2.88% |
| Daniyal Mian | 2025 | 23:52.001 race | 23:11.003 races | -2.86% |
| Jennifer Li | 2025 | 25:24.001 race | 24:41.002 races | -2.82% |
| Casey Coleman | 2025 | 20:45.002 races | 20:11.001 race | -2.73% |
| Neela Soni | 2024 | 28:49.001 race | 28:02.001 race | -2.72% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 19:49.001 race | -2.70% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 22:54.001 race | 22:17.001 race | -2.69% |
| Peyton Lubeck | 2024 | 20:45.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -2.65% |
| Ellie Rankin | 2024 | 30:48.001 race | 30:00.001 race | -2.60% |
| Owen Chrisensen | 2025 | 22:12.001 race | 21:38.003 races | -2.55% |
| Alitza Soiffer | 2023 | 26:11.001 race | 25:31.002 races | -2.55% |
| Anray Sheng | 2023 | 23:42.001 race | 23:06.001 race | -2.53% |
| Amory Forman | 2023 | 21:35.001 race | 21:04.001 race | -2.39% |
| Alex DeChiara | 2025 | 22:00.001 race | 21:29.001 race | -2.35% |
| P. Pogorzelska | 2025 | 27:04.001 race | 26:26.002 races | -2.34% |
| Sunny Qian | 2025 | 20:26.002 races | 19:58.001 race | -2.28% |
| Haewon Kim | 2025 | 32:23.002 races | 31:39.001 race | -2.26% |
| Justin Lee | 2023 | 20:40.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -2.26% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -2.17% |
| Dylan Fu | 2025 | 20:12.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -2.15% |
| Eleanor Corcoran | 2025 | 28:26.001 race | 27:50.002 races | -2.11% |
| Allison Park | 2023 | 25:40.001 race | 25:08.001 race | -2.08% |
| Noah Divon | 2023 | 22:33.001 race | 22:05.001 race | -2.07% |
| Will Frazier | 2025 | 19:36.001 race | 19:12.003 races | -2.04% |
| Alex Beys | 2025 | 22:13.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -2.03% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2024 | 17:09.001 race | 16:49.001 race | -1.94% |
| Alex Signorovitch | 2025 | 18:18.001 race | 17:58.003 races | -1.82% |
| Taylor Ehler | 2024 | 35:08.001 race | 34:30.001 race | -1.80% |
| Elizabeth Lapides | 2024 | 23:23.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -1.78% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 18:52.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -1.77% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2023 | 18:21.001 race | 18:02.001 race | -1.73% |
| Aly Correia | 2024 | 26:11.001 race | 25:44.001 race | -1.72% |
| Claire Choe | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 20:11.003 races | -1.70% |
| Alexa Zhou | 2023 | 26:10.001 race | 25:44.001 race | -1.66% |
| Nick Noon | 2025 | 26:26.002 races | 26:00.001 race | -1.64% |
| Tim Churchill | 2023 | 17:31.001 race | 17:14.001 race | -1.62% |
| Ethan Gu | 2025 | 20:50.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -1.52% |
| Linda Wang | 2025 | 29:42.002 races | 29:15.001 race | -1.52% |
| Adair Johnson | 2023 | 25:08.001 race | 24:48.002 races | -1.33% |
| Bohdan Savin | 2025 | 26:15.002 races | 25:55.001 race | -1.27% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 17:09.001 race | 16:56.001 race | -1.26% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 22:38.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -1.25% |
| Julian Barber | 2025 | 19:59.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -1.08% |
| George Scanlon | 2023 | 21:51.001 race | 21:37.001 race | -1.07% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:18.001 race | 18:07.001 race | -1.00% |
| Angela Huffer | 2025 | 22:08.002 races | 21:55.001 race | -0.98% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2023 | 22:15.001 race | 22:02.001 race | -0.97% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2023 | 30:28.001 race | 30:11.001 race | -0.93% |
| Kendra Snell | 2024 | 20:56.001 race | 20:45.001 race | -0.88% |
| Brady Gomez | 2025 | 26:04.002 races | 25:51.001 race | -0.83% |
| Cassidy Bruno | 2025 | 20:20.002 races | 20:10.001 race | -0.82% |
| Sam Blank | 2024 | 18:21.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -0.82% |
| Catherine Maloney | 2024 | 27:04.001 race | 26:51.001 race | -0.80% |
| Luke Peabody | 2023 | 19:25.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -0.77% |
| Eric Liu | 2023 | 22:18.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -0.75% |
| James Fair | 2023 | 21:05.001 race | 20:56.001 race | -0.71% |
| Masan Porter | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 22:15.003 races | -0.67% |
| Matthew Ding | 2023 | 25:37.001 race | 25:27.001 race | -0.65% |
| Annie Husband | 2024 | 24:40.001 race | 24:31.001 race | -0.61% |
| Will Husband | 2024 | 18:07.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -0.55% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2024 | 18:38.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -0.54% |
| Alexei Liska | 2025 | 22:06.002 races | 21:59.001 race | -0.53% |
| Alex Young | 2024 | 18:25.001 race | 18:20.001 race | -0.45% |
| Keenan Billings | 2023 | 19:12.001 race | 19:07.001 race | -0.43% |
| Jude Hebb | 2025 | 20:16.002 races | 20:11.001 race | -0.41% |
| Olivia Standish | 2024 | 24:32.001 race | 24:26.001 race | -0.41% |
| Pati Pogorzelska | 2023 | 24:36.001 race | 24:30.001 race | -0.41% |
| Elizabeth Pener | 2023 | 24:47.001 race | 24:42.001 race | -0.34% |
| Presley Bruno | 2025 | 24:59.002 races | 24:55.001 race | -0.27% |
| Jovic Stachelski | 2025 | 19:12.002 races | 19:09.001 race | -0.26% |
| Stella Curwin-Amfitheatrof | 2025 | 19:18.002 races | 19:15.001 race | -0.26% |
| Isla Scott | 2024 | 23:33.001 race | 23:33.001 race | 0.00% |
| Taylor Hauff | 2024 | 23:30.001 race | 23:30.001 race | 0.00% |
| Ryan Xu | 2025 | 25:21.001 race | 25:22.003 races | +0.07% |
| Alexander Zhao | 2025 | 22:21.002 races | 22:22.001 race | +0.07% |
| Terry Qi | 2025 | 19:16.002 races | 19:17.001 race | +0.09% |
| Chase Phillips | 2025 | 18:59.002 races | 19:00.001 race | +0.09% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2023 | 21:46.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +0.15% |
| Parker Lewis-Pierce | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +0.22% |
| Steve Ma | 2025 | 22:05.002 races | 22:10.001 race | +0.38% |
| Ben Kaplan | 2023 | 25:38.001 race | 25:45.001 race | +0.46% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 22:46.001 race | 22:54.001 race | +0.59% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2023 | 22:23.001 race | 22:31.001 race | +0.60% |
| Caroline Stilwell | 2025 | 23:41.002 races | 23:51.001 race | +0.70% |
| Jessica Wu | 2025 | 27:28.002 races | 27:40.001 race | +0.73% |
| Zach Quintal | 2024 | 20:07.001 race | 20:16.001 race | +0.75% |
| Alex Kovtunenko | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 22:28.001 race | +0.75% |
| Rachel Bueker | 2024 | 25:52.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +0.77% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 22:29.001 race | +0.82% |
| Alyssa Ho | 2023 | 24:52.001 race | 25:05.001 race | +0.87% |
| Stella Pham | 2025 | 25:43.002 races | 25:57.001 race | +0.91% |
| Marvelous Ugwu | 2025 | 23:40.002 races | 23:54.001 race | +0.99% |
| Grant Vensel | 2024 | 19:59.001 race | 20:11.001 race | +1.00% |
| Madi Pugatch | 2024 | 27:43.001 race | 28:00.001 race | +1.02% |
| Georgia Barrett | 2023 | 24:18.001 race | 24:34.003 races | +1.10% |
| Eli Berk | 2025 | 23:04.001 race | 23:22.003 races | +1.30% |
| Sebastien Amor | 2025 | 17:45.002 races | 18:02.001 race | +1.60% |
| Talia Frieze | 2024 | 25:07.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +1.79% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +1.87% |
| Alexandra Nicholas | 2022 | 25:48.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +1.87% |
| Justin Jang | 2024 | 18:27.001 race | 18:50.001 race | +2.08% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2023 | 24:01.001 race | 24:34.001 race | +2.29% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2023 | 23:41.001 race | 24:14.001 race | +2.32% |
| Anika Ata | 2025 | 21:15.002 races | 21:45.001 race | +2.35% |
| Theo Martin | 2025 | 21:12.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +2.36% |
| Claire Liu | 2025 | 33:37.001 race | 34:28.003 races | +2.53% |
| George Pinkas | 2023 | 25:24.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +2.62% |
| Allis Seifer | 2025 | 29:04.002 races | 29:51.001 race | +2.69% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 22:43.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +2.71% |
| Jaden Smith | 2021 | 19:51.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +3.02% |
| Olivia Oates | 2025 | 26:59.002 races | 27:49.001 race | +3.09% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 20:48.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +3.13% |
| Lawrence Chen | 2025 | 26:20.002 races | 27:15.001 race | +3.48% |
| Wes Shaller | 2024 | 20:33.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +3.49% |
| Eden Hossaena | 2024 | 37:14.001 race | 38:42.001 race | +3.94% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:05.001 race | 21:59.001 race | +4.27% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2023 | 25:43.001 race | 26:49.001 race | +4.28% |
| Jessie Hoffman | 2025 | 26:42.002 races | 27:54.001 race | +4.49% |
| Alex Spindt | 2024 | 23:10.001 race | 24:14.001 race | +4.60% |
| Daghan Konur | 2025 | 19:44.002 races | 20:45.001 race | +5.15% |
| Lukas Leibisch | 2024 | 21:07.001 race | 22:19.001 race | +5.68% |
| Alex Cheng | 2023 | 18:07.001 race | 19:11.001 race | +5.89% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2023 | 19:42.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +6.01% |
| Violet Zhang | 2023 | 29:49.001 race | 32:20.001 race | +8.44% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 22:57.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +10.38% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2023 | 29:26.001 race | 32:41.001 race | +11.04% |
| Harrison Huang | 2025 | 26:14.001 race | 29:13.001 race | +11.37% |
| Owen Richer | 2024 | 18:33.001 race | 20:44.001 race | +11.77% |