Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Rock Meadow 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow 5K runs faster
-0.29%
Roughly 3.4 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
26
Developing evidence
Median difference
-2.25%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-0.29%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+1.99%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-3.39% to +0.43%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Rock Meadow 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -5.64% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 24:00.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -5.49% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 27:35.001 race | 26:10.001 race | -5.14% |
| Ethan Xie | 2023 | 21:49.001 race | 20:43.001 race | -5.04% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 23:52.001 race | 22:44.001 race | -4.75% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 20:22.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -3.60% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 18:49.001 race | 18:09.001 race | -3.54% |
| John Pena | 2023 | 24:51.001 race | 24:00.001 race | -3.42% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 18:27.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -2.89% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 21:11.001 race | -2.75% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:40.001 race | 20:07.001 race | -2.66% |
| Alexandre White | 2023 | 21:58.001 race | 21:26.001 race | -2.43% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:34.001 race | 20:06.001 race | -2.27% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 21:00.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -2.22% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 18:15.001 race | 17:53.001 race | -2.01% |
| Timothy Snail | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -1.79% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:15.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -1.74% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:38.001 race | 19:18.001 race | -1.70% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -1.64% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 19:03.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -1.57% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:16.001 race | 18:06.001 race | -0.91% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2023 | 20:48.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +0.16% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 17:48.001 race | 17:52.001 race | +0.37% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 20:50.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +1.04% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 20:45.001 race | 21:15.001 race | +2.41% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2023 | 19:51.001 race | 24:32.001 race | +23.59% |