Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.St. Paul's School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Paul's School 5K runs faster
-1.52%
Roughly 18.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
15
Developing evidence
Median difference
-2.85%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-1.52%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.62%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-8.02% to -3.11%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | St. Paul's School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jane Kelley | 2022 | 29:54.001 race | 25:15.001 race | -15.55% |
| Carmel Harrison | 2022 | 28:13.001 race | 24:28.001 race | -13.29% |
| Christina Mayer | 2022 | 26:53.001 race | 23:45.001 race | -11.66% |
| Iris Shen | 2022 | 27:22.001 race | 25:17.001 race | -7.61% |
| Serena Toscani | 2022 | 23:34.001 race | 21:50.001 race | -7.36% |
| Caroline Shin | 2022 | 33:13.001 race | 30:55.001 race | -6.92% |
| Helena Nguyen | 2022 | 24:14.001 race | 23:19.001 race | -3.78% |
| Alicia Wu | 2022 | 25:11.001 race | 24:28.001 race | -2.85% |
| Ryan Fantasia | 2022 | 24:52.001 race | 24:14.001 race | -2.55% |
| Anne Kelley | 2022 | 24:58.001 race | 24:22.001 race | -2.40% |
| Lily-Rose Pepin | 2022 | 25:44.001 race | 25:07.001 race | -2.40% |
| Meg Madison | 2022 | 19:11.001 race | 18:46.001 race | -2.17% |
| Amber Bai | 2022 | 28:00.001 race | 27:35.001 race | -1.49% |
| Nicole Hwang | 2022 | 26:49.001 race | 26:30.001 race | -1.18% |
| Suzanne Pogorelec | 2022 | 23:46.001 race | 23:31.001 race | -1.05% |