Pairwise course analysis

Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Thayer 5K Course runs faster

-3.77%

Roughly 45.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

37

Developing evidence

Median difference

-5.91%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-3.77%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+9.55%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

-9.38% to -5.38%

Scale shown

-10% to +10%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonMiddlesex 5K CourseThayer 5K CourseDifference
Justine Lam201939:43.002 races30:35.001 race-23.00%
Olivia Crisafi202131:12.001 race25:01.001 race-19.82%
Linda Qin201938:09.003 races31:27.001 race-17.56%
Kevin Yao202129:45.001 race25:14.002 races-15.18%
Amy Li201938:57.003 races33:31.001 race-13.95%
Jacqueline Thabit202131:19.001 race26:57.001 race-13.94%
Bruin Brayshaw202127:06.001 race23:21.001 race-13.84%
Mei-Ling Bielagus202126:46.001 race23:23.001 race-12.64%
Brian Zheng202125:06.001 race22:05.001 race-12.02%
Laruen McMahon202125:40.001 race22:54.001 race-10.78%
Aleah Ghiasuddin202125:13.001 race22:42.001 race-9.98%
Sophia Matherly202131:26.001 race28:39.001 race-8.85%
Cora Knoell202126:53.001 race24:33.001 race-8.68%
Aiden English202125:26.001 race23:16.001 race-8.52%
Bear Brooks202118:26.001 race16:58.001 race-7.96%
Calvin Jacobs202520:32.001 race18:58.001 race-7.63%
Benzo Zhou202122:38.001 race21:03.001 race-7.00%
Owen Haskell202520:20.001 race18:55.001 race-6.97%
Grace Luettgen201928:12.003 races26:32.001 race-5.91%
Maya Sidhu201926:19.003 races24:52.001 race-5.51%
Shreya Jain201929:28.002 races27:51.001 race-5.49%
Rosie Qin201928:19.003 races26:49.001 race-5.30%
Maanasi Chintamani201927:50.003 races26:29.001 race-4.85%
Dylan Crawford202520:21.001 race19:31.001 race-4.10%
Quinn Bartling202520:56.001 race20:09.001 race-3.74%
Oliver Massey202519:55.001 race19:15.001 race-3.35%
Phoebe Lu201927:35.003 races26:42.001 race-3.20%
Amelia Stevens201925:52.003 races25:17.001 race-2.26%
Elizabeth Gatto201928:05.003 races27:31.001 race-2.02%
Megan Ding201926:32.003 races26:00.001 race-2.01%
Lily Weinstein201940:16.001 race39:34.001 race-1.74%
Josie Silk201924:18.003 races23:56.001 race-1.51%
Charlotte Wolford201931:32.002 races31:07.001 race-1.32%
Connor Keleher202521:17.001 race21:08.001 race-0.70%
Mia Peng201930:05.003 races29:57.001 race-0.44%
Eliza Hirsch201940:41.002 races41:22.001 race+1.68%
Brandon Abell202521:10.001 race21:57.001 race+3.70%