Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Williston Northampton School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
+0.19%
Roughly 2.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
99
Strong evidence
Median difference
+0.58%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.19%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.30%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Williston Northampton School 5K fasterEvenWilliston Northampton School 5K slower
Confidence interval
-0.56% to +1.06%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Williston Northampton School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cian McCarthy | 2025 | 30:39.001 race | 25:26.001 race | -17.02% |
| Maddie Gao | 2025 | 30:56.001 race | 27:36.001 race | -10.78% |
| Celine Ding | 2025 | 29:08.002 races | 26:56.001 race | -7.55% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2025 | 26:48.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -6.84% |
| Nick Song | 2025 | 23:12.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -5.24% |
| Sophie Chatfield | 2025 | 28:00.001 race | 26:32.001 race | -5.24% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2025 | 26:53.001 race | 25:38.001 race | -4.65% |
| Henry Becker | 2025 | 23:17.001 race | 22:15.001 race | -4.44% |
| Arielle Guo | 2025 | 28:58.001 race | 27:44.001 race | -4.26% |
| Celeste Gao | 2025 | 27:36.001 race | 26:36.001 race | -3.62% |
| Caroline Stilwell | 2025 | 23:41.002 races | 22:54.001 race | -3.31% |
| Emily Geist | 2025 | 29:14.001 race | 28:18.001 race | -3.19% |
| Scarlett Gustafson | 2025 | 23:40.002 races | 22:55.001 race | -3.17% |
| Alex Xi | 2025 | 23:56.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -3.06% |
| Katie Tantillo | 2025 | 22:27.002 races | 21:46.001 race | -3.04% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2025 | 18:20.001 race | 17:51.001 race | -2.64% |
| Umar Fayzullaev | 2025 | 24:13.001 race | 23:40.001 race | -2.27% |
| Robert Sou | 2025 | 20:47.001 race | 20:21.001 race | -2.09% |
| Alexei Liska | 2025 | 22:06.002 races | 21:40.001 race | -1.96% |
| Aidan Pearsall | 2025 | 17:57.001 race | 17:36.001 race | -1.95% |
| Jude Anderson-Song | 2025 | 19:31.001 race | 19:09.001 race | -1.88% |
| Pipsa Palatsi | 2025 | 23:13.002 races | 22:47.001 race | -1.87% |
| Connor Moore | 2025 | 20:54.001 race | 20:33.001 race | -1.67% |
| Jamie Eslick | 2025 | 22:19.001 race | 21:57.001 race | -1.64% |
| Aadhya Mahesh | 2025 | 26:43.001 race | 26:17.001 race | -1.62% |
| Julianne Kelly | 2025 | 23:12.001 race | 22:55.001 race | -1.22% |
| Ashley Zhang | 2025 | 27:36.001 race | 27:17.001 race | -1.15% |
| Josh Taylor | 2025 | 22:02.001 race | 21:47.001 race | -1.13% |
| Grace Daoust | 2025 | 25:27.001 race | 25:13.001 race | -0.92% |
| Juliet Banzi | 2025 | 22:20.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -0.90% |
| Hei Tung (Joanna) Ng | 2025 | 24:27.001 race | 24:17.001 race | -0.68% |
| Merrick Brannigan | 2025 | 23:45.001 race | 23:37.001 race | -0.56% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2025 | 20:42.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -0.48% |
| Ellie Tesoro | 2025 | 29:34.001 race | 29:27.001 race | -0.39% |
| Alice Wang | 2025 | 27:08.001 race | 27:02.001 race | -0.37% |
| Amaro Castillo | 2025 | 17:25.001 race | 17:23.001 race | -0.19% |
| Olivia Oates | 2025 | 26:59.002 races | 26:58.001 race | -0.06% |
| Tessa Schillinger | 2025 | 25:11.001 race | 25:11.001 race | 0.00% |
| Alex Mao | 2025 | 21:31.001 race | 21:32.001 race | +0.08% |
| Saanvi Sadineni | 2025 | 32:44.001 race | 32:46.001 race | +0.10% |
| Presley Bruno | 2025 | 24:59.002 races | 25:02.001 race | +0.20% |
| Kiernan Patel | 2025 | 22:37.002 races | 22:40.001 race | +0.22% |
| Alex DeChiara | 2025 | 22:00.001 race | 22:03.001 race | +0.23% |
| Anika Ata | 2025 | 21:15.002 races | 21:18.001 race | +0.24% |
| Brady Preneta | 2025 | 20:17.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +0.33% |
| Ideal Liang | 2025 | 25:13.001 race | 25:18.001 race | +0.33% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2025 | 18:36.001 race | 18:40.001 race | +0.36% |
| Cassidy Kamil | 2025 | 26:19.001 race | 26:26.001 race | +0.44% |
| Wes Gray | 2025 | 24:58.001 race | 25:05.001 race | +0.47% |
| Dylan Fu | 2025 | 20:12.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +0.58% |
| Sebastien Amor | 2025 | 17:45.002 races | 17:52.001 race | +0.66% |
| Marvelous Ugwu | 2025 | 23:40.002 races | 23:50.001 race | +0.70% |
| Willow Dixon | 2025 | 26:48.001 race | 27:01.001 race | +0.81% |
| Jessie Hoffman | 2025 | 26:42.002 races | 26:55.001 race | +0.81% |
| Alex Beys | 2025 | 22:13.001 race | 22:24.001 race | +0.83% |
| Julian Barber | 2025 | 19:59.001 race | 20:09.001 race | +0.83% |
| Allison Luo | 2025 | 23:29.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +0.85% |
| Theo Martin | 2025 | 21:12.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +0.86% |
| Natalie Meleo | 2025 | 21:37.001 race | 21:49.001 race | +0.93% |
| Steve Ma | 2025 | 22:05.002 races | 22:18.001 race | +0.98% |
| Seif El Gazzar | 2025 | 18:48.001 race | 19:00.001 race | +1.06% |
| David Chen | 2025 | 20:43.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +1.13% |
| Brandon Perez | 2025 | 25:25.001 race | 25:44.001 race | +1.25% |
| Lily Makepeace | 2025 | 23:42.001 race | 24:03.001 race | +1.48% |
| Jason Tae | 2025 | 22:30.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +1.48% |
| Chase Phillips | 2025 | 18:59.002 races | 19:16.001 race | +1.49% |
| Margot Beaumont-Mill | 2025 | 24:51.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +1.54% |
| Cassidy Bruno | 2025 | 20:20.002 races | 20:39.001 race | +1.56% |
| Heloise Langlais | 2025 | 28:15.001 race | 28:42.001 race | +1.59% |
| Stella Curwin-Amfitheatrof | 2025 | 19:18.002 races | 19:37.001 race | +1.64% |
| Fiji Chen | 2025 | 21:11.001 race | 21:33.001 race | +1.73% |
| Jude Hebb | 2025 | 20:16.002 races | 20:38.001 race | +1.81% |
| Winnie Hatch | 2025 | 33:00.001 race | 33:36.001 race | +1.82% |
| Sita Warner | 2025 | 25:33.001 race | 26:01.001 race | +1.83% |
| Cate Corbett | 2025 | 21:49.002 races | 22:13.001 race | +1.83% |
| Ray Zhao | 2025 | 21:48.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +1.83% |
| Daghan Konur | 2025 | 19:44.002 races | 20:06.001 race | +1.86% |
| Lillian Peake | 2025 | 31:41.001 race | 32:20.001 race | +2.05% |
| Casey Coleman | 2025 | 20:45.002 races | 21:11.001 race | +2.09% |
| Max Rochford | 2025 | 22:56.001 race | 23:25.001 race | +2.11% |
| Jasmine Zhang | 2025 | 25:09.001 race | 25:41.001 race | +2.12% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2025 | 20:19.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +2.13% |
| Ethan Gu | 2025 | 20:50.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +2.48% |
| Jovic Stachelski | 2025 | 19:12.002 races | 19:41.001 race | +2.52% |
| Ella McDonald | 2025 | 21:04.001 race | 21:38.001 race | +2.69% |
| Gryffin Daley | 2025 | 18:12.001 race | 18:46.001 race | +3.11% |
| Angela Huffer | 2025 | 22:08.002 races | 22:50.001 race | +3.16% |
| Suma Bogelli | 2025 | 25:18.001 race | 26:07.001 race | +3.23% |
| Stella Pham | 2025 | 25:43.002 races | 26:33.001 race | +3.24% |
| Alejandro Gavilanes | 2025 | 18:44.001 race | 19:24.001 race | +3.56% |
| Lucy McCormick | 2025 | 20:54.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +4.07% |
| Alexander Zhao | 2025 | 22:21.002 races | 23:23.001 race | +4.62% |
| Lucy Bonner | 2025 | 23:49.001 race | 24:59.001 race | +4.90% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2025 | 21:38.001 race | 22:44.001 race | +5.08% |
| Terry Qi | 2025 | 19:16.002 races | 20:20.001 race | +5.54% |
| Nelson Li | 2025 | 25:19.001 race | 26:45.001 race | +5.66% |
| Jason Fan | 2025 | 23:07.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +10.24% |
| Thomas Ireland | 2025 | 18:49.001 race | 21:50.001 race | +16.03% |
| Sunny Qian | 2025 | 20:26.002 races | 23:49.001 race | +16.56% |