Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.WNH 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
WNH 5K runs slower
+1.40%
Roughly 16.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
58
Strong evidence
Median difference
+1.27%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.40%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.88%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
WNH 5K fasterEvenWNH 5K slower
Confidence interval
+0.50% to +1.66%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | WNH 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate McBride | 2021 | 23:34.003 races | 22:25.001 race | -4.88% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 20:47.001 race | 19:56.001 race | -4.09% |
| Sophia Bueno | 2021 | 25:42.003 races | 24:52.001 race | -3.24% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 26:15.001 race | 25:31.001 race | -2.79% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 21:26.001 race | 20:56.001 race | -2.33% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 27:09.001 race | 26:41.001 race | -1.72% |
| Matt Wing | 2021 | 17:09.002 races | 16:52.001 race | -1.65% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2021 | 18:42.003 races | 18:27.001 race | -1.34% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 24:36.001 race | 24:17.001 race | -1.29% |
| Henry Horvath | 2021 | 18:42.003 races | 18:29.001 race | -1.16% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:18.001 race | 18:11.001 race | -0.64% |
| Ben Luo | 2021 | 20:41.002 races | 20:34.001 race | -0.56% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2021 | 21:23.003 races | 21:16.001 race | -0.55% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 18:52.001 race | 18:49.001 race | -0.27% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 22:38.001 race | 22:36.001 race | -0.15% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:05.001 race | 21:04.001 race | -0.08% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2021 | 19:17.001 race | 19:17.001 race | 0.00% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 22:43.001 race | 22:44.001 race | +0.07% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 22:46.001 race | +0.29% |
| Clare LaMattina | 2021 | 23:39.001 race | 23:44.001 race | +0.35% |
| Will Jevon | 2021 | 19:46.003 races | 19:52.001 race | +0.51% |
| Jaden Smith | 2021 | 19:51.001 race | 19:59.001 race | +0.67% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 23:12.001 race | 23:22.001 race | +0.72% |
| Abigail Riordan | 2021 | 26:06.002 races | 26:18.001 race | +0.77% |
| David Rome | 2021 | 21:34.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +0.77% |
| Ella Richards | 2021 | 24:40.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +0.88% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2021 | 26:11.001 race | 26:27.001 race | +1.02% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 21:41.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +1.15% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 17:09.001 race | 17:22.001 race | +1.26% |
| Florence Morlock | 2021 | 23:20.003 races | 23:38.001 race | +1.29% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 21:45.001 race | 22:03.001 race | +1.38% |
| Peter Favero | 2021 | 17:53.003 races | 18:08.001 race | +1.40% |
| Aparajita Srivastava | 2021 | 26:36.001 race | 26:59.001 race | +1.44% |
| Catherine Bain | 2021 | 25:36.002 races | 25:59.001 race | +1.50% |
| Sadie Millett | 2021 | 21:11.003 races | 21:32.001 race | +1.65% |
| Lucas Liu | 2021 | 21:45.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +1.76% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:20.001 race | 18:40.001 race | +1.82% |
| Josie Silk | 2021 | 21:35.003 races | 22:01.001 race | +2.01% |
| Mitchell Ladd | 2021 | 24:30.002 races | 25:00.001 race | +2.04% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +2.07% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 22:50.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +2.19% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +2.28% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 22:55.001 race | 23:30.001 race | +2.55% |
| Emma Caffrey | 2021 | 25:28.003 races | 26:11.001 race | +2.81% |
| Maddie Gaynor | 2021 | 25:37.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +2.86% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 20:48.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +3.13% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 22:46.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +3.15% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 24:07.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +3.18% |
| Mariam Craig | 2021 | 22:24.003 races | 23:07.001 race | +3.20% |
| Jade Xiao | 2021 | 25:34.003 races | 26:24.001 race | +3.26% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 22:54.001 race | 23:39.001 race | +3.28% |
| Cooper Austen | 2021 | 16:56.002 races | 17:31.001 race | +3.44% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 22:57.001 race | 23:49.001 race | +3.78% |
| Sophia Yang | 2021 | 25:19.002 races | 26:21.001 race | +4.08% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +4.79% |
| Grace Millett | 2021 | 21:37.003 races | 22:41.001 race | +4.93% |
| Raymond Li | 2021 | 19:55.003 races | 20:54.001 race | +4.94% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2021 | 25:50.001 race | 27:23.001 race | +6.00% |