Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.NEPSTA Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NEPSTA Championship Course runs faster
-4.25%
Roughly 51.0 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
27
Developing evidence
Median difference
-4.19%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.25%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.98%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-7.05% to -3.39%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | NEPSTA Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Li | 2023 | 30:55.002 races | 25:16.001 race | -18.27% |
| Rhia Patel | 2023 | 30:56.002 races | 26:48.001 race | -13.36% |
| Alitza Soiffer | 2023 | 26:18.002 races | 23:18.001 race | -11.41% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2023 | 24:13.003 races | 21:43.001 race | -10.32% |
| Torey Mathews | 2023 | 26:21.002 races | 23:56.001 race | -9.17% |
| Alex Sherman | 2023 | 21:44.003 races | 19:47.001 race | -8.97% |
| Connor Steele | 2023 | 20:26.003 races | 18:51.001 race | -7.75% |
| Ernesto Ortiz | 2023 | 21:11.003 races | 19:51.001 race | -6.29% |
| Leo Demissie | 2023 | 20:53.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -5.83% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2023 | 17:27.003 races | 16:32.001 race | -5.25% |
| Zoe Campbell | 2023 | 21:18.003 races | 20:18.001 race | -4.69% |
| Gratian Ting | 2023 | 20:22.003 races | 19:25.001 race | -4.66% |
| Hudson Li | 2023 | 20:15.003 races | 19:24.001 race | -4.20% |
| Thatcher Brown | 2023 | 21:05.002 races | 20:12.001 race | -4.19% |
| Kai On (Jason) Yu | 2023 | 20:31.003 races | 19:41.001 race | -4.06% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2023 | 19:30.003 races | 18:45.001 race | -3.85% |
| Hunter Caggiano | 2023 | 20:40.003 races | 19:54.001 race | -3.71% |
| Esme Campbell | 2023 | 21:23.003 races | 20:37.001 race | -3.59% |
| Masan Porter | 2023 | 21:55.003 races | 21:08.001 race | -3.57% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2023 | 19:16.003 races | 18:36.001 race | -3.46% |
| William Nass | 2023 | 19:52.002 races | 19:14.001 race | -3.19% |
| Elizabeth De Ramel | 2023 | 24:01.003 races | 23:16.001 race | -3.12% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2023 | 19:17.003 races | 18:59.001 race | -1.56% |
| Jace Livingi | 2023 | 18:42.003 races | 18:38.001 race | -0.36% |
| Jason Louie | 2023 | 18:55.003 races | 18:53.001 race | -0.18% |
| Haotong Xue | 2023 | 18:08.002 races | 18:14.001 race | +0.55% |
| Claire Choe | 2023 | 20:36.003 races | 21:53.001 race | +6.23% |