Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+5.09%
Roughly 1:01 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
233
Deep evidence
Median difference
+4.86%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.09%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.25%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+3.96% to +5.23%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theodore Choe | 2023 | 21:49.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -14.90% |
| Violet Zhang | 2023 | 32:20.001 race | 27:42.001 race | -14.33% |
| Alexa Adams | 2023 | 28:43.001 race | 24:49.002 races | -13.58% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2022 | 23:07.001 race | 20:43.001 race | -10.38% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2023 | 32:41.001 race | 29:35.001 race | -9.48% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2023 | 22:49.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -8.18% |
| Matthew Ding | 2023 | 25:27.001 race | 23:44.001 race | -6.75% |
| Parker Lewis-Pierce | 2023 | 22:27.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -5.20% |
| Kate Wei | 2022 | 28:15.001 race | 26:58.001 race | -4.54% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2023 | 23:37.001 race | 22:33.001 race | -4.52% |
| Ben Kaplan | 2023 | 25:45.001 race | 24:39.001 race | -4.27% |
| Chris Peng | 2024 | 25:52.002 races | 24:57.001 race | -3.54% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2023 | 23:05.001 race | 22:25.001 race | -2.89% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2023 | 24:14.001 race | 23:42.001 race | -2.20% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:59.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -2.20% |
| Alice Wang | 2023 | 26:04.001 race | 25:33.001 race | -1.98% |
| Abdirizak Abdulle | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 21:51.001 race | -1.80% |
| George Scanlon | 2023 | 21:37.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -0.77% |
| Christina Hall | 2022 | 29:07.001 race | 28:54.001 race | -0.74% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2021 | 18:36.001 race | 18:29.001 race | -0.63% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 19:51.002 races | -0.17% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2023 | 19:53.001 race | 19:51.001 race | -0.17% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -0.15% |
| Jacob Moon | 2023 | 22:54.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -0.07% |
| Natalia Calvillo | 2022 | 23:24.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -0.07% |
| Amory Forman | 2023 | 21:04.001 race | 21:12.001 race | +0.63% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:00.001 race | 18:07.001 race | +0.65% |
| Finley Long | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +0.65% |
| Cailan MacDonald | 2023 | 23:29.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +0.92% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2024 | 23:21.002 races | 23:34.001 race | +0.93% |
| Arnav Harve | 2022 | 19:19.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +0.95% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 23:20.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +1.14% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2023 | 26:49.001 race | 27:09.001 race | +1.24% |
| Steven Silvers | 2023 | 19:40.001 race | 19:55.002 races | +1.27% |
| Justin Lee | 2022 | 20:35.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +1.30% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2023 | 22:02.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +1.44% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2021 | 19:40.001 race | 19:57.001 race | +1.44% |
| William Hansen | 2021 | 20:17.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +1.48% |
| Hans Vigener | 2021 | 18:57.001 race | 19:14.001 race | +1.50% |
| Scarlett Hawkins | 2023 | 19:33.001 race | 19:51.001 race | +1.53% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2023 | 20:53.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +1.60% |
| John Weldon | 2019 | 19:22.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +1.64% |
| Margot Murphy-Hara | 2024 | 24:34.002 races | 25:00.001 race | +1.76% |
| Edward Qiu | 2023 | 25:49.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +1.87% |
| Ethan Train | 2022 | 19:25.001 race | 19:47.001 race | +1.89% |
| Emma Edgar | 2022 | 27:59.001 race | 28:31.001 race | +1.91% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2022 | 27:59.001 race | 28:31.001 race | +1.91% |
| Ching Hei (Andre) Leung | 2024 | 22:40.002 races | 23:06.001 race | +1.91% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:41.001 race | 19:04.001 race | +2.05% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 20:41.001 race | 21:07.001 race | +2.10% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 25:17.001 race | 25:50.002 races | +2.18% |
| Mara Dubois | 2022 | 26:22.001 race | 26:58.001 race | +2.28% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 22:21.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +2.39% |
| Thatcher Brown | 2023 | 20:50.002 races | 21:20.001 race | +2.40% |
| Eli Berk | 2024 | 21:33.002 races | 22:05.001 race | +2.47% |
| Riya Jain | 2022 | 28:40.001 race | 29:23.001 race | +2.50% |
| Emmett Burghardt | 2024 | 20:57.002 races | 21:29.001 race | +2.55% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2023 | 21:25.001 race | 21:58.001 race | +2.57% |
| Jack Connors | 2021 | 18:05.001 race | 18:34.001 race | +2.67% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 23:40.001 race | 24:18.001 race | +2.68% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 24:02.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +2.70% |
| Jerry Qin | 2022 | 19:39.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +2.80% |
| Om Paithankar | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +2.82% |
| Michael Timmins | 2022 | 21:43.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +2.84% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2024 | 23:13.002 races | 23:54.001 race | +2.94% |
| Sam Soukas | 2022 | 20:17.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +2.96% |
| Ben Owusu-Amo | 2022 | 21:43.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +3.07% |
| Cate Devaney | 2023 | 23:45.001 race | 24:32.002 races | +3.30% |
| David Xiong | 2023 | 19:10.001 race | 19:48.001 race | +3.30% |
| Luke Hotra | 2022 | 20:55.001 race | 21:37.001 race | +3.35% |
| Adrian Tan | 2022 | 24:16.001 race | 25:05.001 race | +3.37% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:07.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +3.40% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 28:49.001 race | 29:49.002 races | +3.47% |
| William Trautz | 2022 | 17:35.001 race | 18:12.001 race | +3.51% |
| Chris Tillen | 2022 | 20:16.001 race | 20:59.001 race | +3.54% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +3.57% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 18:33.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +3.59% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 18:32.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +3.60% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 18:59.001 race | 19:41.002 races | +3.69% |
| Connor Steele | 2023 | 20:32.003 races | 21:18.001 race | +3.73% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 22:17.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +3.74% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 25:20.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +3.75% |
| Ezra Lee | 2022 | 19:57.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +3.76% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +3.76% |
| Masan Porter | 2024 | 21:15.002 races | 22:03.001 race | +3.76% |
| Andreas Bai | 2023 | 24:37.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +3.79% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:07.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +3.81% |
| Haotong Xue | 2024 | 18:36.002 races | 19:19.001 race | +3.85% |
| Kailyn Love | 2024 | 22:50.002 races | 23:43.001 race | +3.87% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 20:39.001 race | 21:27.002 races | +3.87% |
| Colin Anderson | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +3.89% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 21:14.001 race | +3.92% |
| Elizabeth De Ramel | 2024 | 22:48.002 races | 23:42.001 race | +3.95% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2023 | 19:22.001 race | 20:08.001 race | +3.96% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2022 | 26:37.001 race | 27:42.001 race | +4.07% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 21:27.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +4.12% |
| Eric Zhou | 2022 | 20:14.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +4.20% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 18:25.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +4.34% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2023 | 23:07.001 race | 24:08.002 races | +4.40% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 23:40.001 race | +4.41% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 18:03.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +4.43% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 22:54.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +4.44% |
| Angie Feng | 2022 | 25:09.001 race | 26:16.001 race | +4.44% |
| Maksim Roman | 2022 | 19:28.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +4.45% |
| Thomas Xue | 2022 | 21:48.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +4.51% |
| Phoebe Quinn | 2024 | 22:53.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +4.52% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 22:28.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +4.53% |
| Esme Campbell | 2024 | 19:52.002 races | 20:46.001 race | +4.53% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2023 | 26:06.001 race | 27:17.002 races | +4.53% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 21:50.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +4.58% |
| Jack Butterworth | 2023 | 20:34.002 races | 21:32.001 race | +4.70% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2022 | 23:19.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +4.72% |
| Patrick McDonald | 2019 | 18:41.001 race | 19:34.001 race | +4.73% |
| Alex Sherman | 2023 | 19:58.003 races | 20:55.001 race | +4.76% |
| Jason Louie | 2024 | 18:10.002 races | 19:02.001 race | +4.77% |
| Jason Louie | 2023 | 18:56.003 races | 19:51.001 race | +4.84% |
| Riley Gordon | 2022 | 24:43.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +4.86% |
| Dion Cheung | 2024 | 26:02.002 races | 27:18.001 race | +4.87% |
| Jessie Shi | 2024 | 25:15.002 races | 26:30.001 race | +4.95% |
| Emilie Andrews | 2022 | 25:00.001 race | 26:15.001 race | +5.00% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2022 | 23:02.001 race | 24:12.001 race | +5.07% |
| Alex Sherman | 2024 | 20:01.002 races | 21:02.001 race | +5.08% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2023 | 28:48.001 race | 30:16.002 races | +5.09% |
| Gianluca Foschi Walko | 2019 | 21:42.001 race | 22:49.001 race | +5.15% |
| Oliver Burstein | 2022 | 20:39.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +5.17% |
| Josh Levine | 2022 | 22:50.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +5.18% |
| Armand Matijasevic | 2024 | 19:48.002 races | 20:50.001 race | +5.22% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 17:48.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +5.24% |
| Ava Kocher | 2022 | 24:42.001 race | 26:00.001 race | +5.26% |
| Ethan Burack | 2022 | 21:45.001 race | 22:54.001 race | +5.29% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 24:27.001 race | +5.31% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 23:11.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +5.32% |
| Will Frazier | 2024 | 20:02.002 races | 21:06.001 race | +5.32% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 26:37.001 race | 28:03.002 races | +5.39% |
| Justin Jang | 2024 | 18:50.001 race | 19:51.001 race | +5.40% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +5.41% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:40.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +5.48% |
| Jack Butterworth | 2024 | 19:39.002 races | 20:44.001 race | +5.51% |
| Michael Bobo | 2022 | 20:39.001 race | 21:48.001 race | +5.57% |
| Felix Stuart | 2024 | 20:20.002 races | 21:28.001 race | +5.57% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 19:15.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +5.63% |
| Ella Berger | 2022 | 25:06.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +5.71% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 22:25.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +5.72% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 24:12.002 races | +5.75% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2022 | 19:37.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +5.78% |
| Lia Gavin | 2022 | 23:05.001 race | 24:26.001 race | +5.85% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 22:33.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +5.91% |
| Isaac Wu | 2024 | 21:14.002 races | 22:30.001 race | +5.97% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +6.06% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 18:41.001 race | 19:51.002 races | +6.24% |
| Matthew Abati | 2023 | 19:09.002 races | 20:21.001 race | +6.27% |
| Annie Lopez | 2022 | 24:42.001 race | 26:15.001 race | +6.28% |
| Thomas Scordino | 2021 | 20:20.001 race | 21:37.001 race | +6.31% |
| Thomas Flatley | 2019 | 19:14.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +6.33% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2024 | 16:49.001 race | 17:53.001 race | +6.34% |
| Jace LiVigni | 2024 | 18:01.002 races | 19:10.001 race | +6.38% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 27:00.001 race | 28:44.002 races | +6.42% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 22:47.001 race | 24:15.002 races | +6.44% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 19:49.001 race | 21:06.001 race | +6.48% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 21:51.001 race | 23:16.002 races | +6.48% |
| Joe Jia | 2024 | 20:43.002 races | 22:04.001 race | +6.52% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 20:40.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +6.53% |
| Alex Young | 2024 | 18:20.001 race | 19:32.001 race | +6.55% |
| Wes Shaller | 2024 | 21:16.001 race | 22:40.001 race | +6.58% |
| Anthony Wu | 2023 | 21:22.002 races | 22:47.001 race | +6.63% |
| Davin Roy | 2022 | 23:57.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +6.68% |
| Matthew Loose | 2022 | 19:11.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +6.69% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 16:56.001 race | 18:04.001 race | +6.69% |
| Lukas Leibisch | 2024 | 22:19.001 race | 23:49.001 race | +6.72% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 21:41.001 race | 23:09.002 races | +6.76% |
| Wesley Lindstrom-Chalpin | 2022 | 23:58.001 race | 25:37.001 race | +6.88% |
| Zarak Ahmad | 2023 | 25:10.002 races | 26:54.001 race | +6.89% |
| Zifu Song | 2024 | 20:59.002 races | 22:26.001 race | +6.91% |
| William Nass | 2024 | 19:23.002 races | 20:44.001 race | +6.96% |
| William Nass | 2023 | 19:11.002 races | 20:32.001 race | +7.04% |
| Alex Kovtunenko | 2024 | 22:28.001 race | 24:03.001 race | +7.05% |
| Hudson Li | 2024 | 21:15.002 races | 22:45.001 race | +7.06% |
| Theodore Choe | 2024 | 17:36.002 races | 18:51.001 race | +7.10% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 21:33.001 race | +7.30% |
| Christian MacCallum | 2023 | 19:38.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +7.39% |
| Alaina Millian | 2023 | 26:42.001 race | 28:41.002 races | +7.43% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:23.001 race | 18:43.001 race | +7.67% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2023 | 19:17.003 races | 20:46.001 race | +7.69% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:22.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +7.77% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2022 | 23:14.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +7.82% |
| Mia Sung | 2022 | 24:23.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +7.86% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 18:35.001 race | 20:03.001 race | +7.89% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2022 | 20:00.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +7.92% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2022 | 19:41.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +8.04% |
| Emilio Manz | 2022 | 19:27.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +8.05% |
| Brian Luppy | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +8.13% |
| Jace Livingi | 2023 | 18:41.003 races | 20:13.001 race | +8.21% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 17:46.001 race | 19:14.001 race | +8.26% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2022 | 23:08.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +8.29% |
| Gratian Ting | 2024 | 20:30.002 races | 22:12.001 race | +8.29% |
| Torey Mathews | 2024 | 25:40.001 race | 27:49.001 race | +8.38% |
| Eli Berk | 2023 | 20:52.002 races | 22:37.001 race | +8.39% |
| James Joyce | 2021 | 20:22.001 race | 22:05.001 race | +8.43% |
| Joseph Pandit | 2019 | 19:38.001 race | 21:19.001 race | +8.57% |
| Zidan Graham | 2024 | 22:52.001 race | 24:51.001 race | +8.67% |
| Archer Coy | 2023 | 22:21.002 races | 24:18.001 race | +8.72% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2023 | 18:59.003 races | 20:39.001 race | +8.78% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 19:10.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +8.78% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2024 | 19:09.002 races | 20:50.001 race | +8.79% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 23:08.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +9.01% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 16:31.001 race | 18:01.001 race | +9.08% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2023 | 18:59.003 races | 20:43.001 race | +9.13% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2023 | 16:59.003 races | 18:34.001 race | +9.32% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2023 | 23:22.001 race | 25:33.002 races | +9.34% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 19:21.001 race | 21:10.001 race | +9.39% |
| Kailin Shi | 2024 | 24:40.002 races | 27:01.001 race | +9.53% |
| Kai On (Jason) Yu | 2023 | 20:11.003 races | 22:07.001 race | +9.58% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 25:54.001 race | 28:24.001 race | +9.65% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 19:59.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +9.76% |
| Lily Heaton | 2023 | 25:49.001 race | 28:21.001 race | +9.81% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 22:22.001 race | 24:35.002 races | +9.91% |
| Mike Gao | 2024 | 24:14.001 race | 26:41.001 race | +10.11% |
| Haotong Xue | 2023 | 17:37.002 races | 19:28.001 race | +10.50% |
| Harvey Rupp | 2019 | 20:53.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +10.61% |
| Jeffrey Liu | 2022 | 23:22.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +10.77% |
| Lara Poole | 2022 | 25:49.001 race | 28:36.001 race | +10.78% |
| Joe Jia | 2023 | 24:07.002 races | 26:46.001 race | +10.99% |
| Lousia Corbett | 2024 | 24:47.002 races | 27:35.001 race | +11.30% |
| Justin Lin | 2024 | 23:22.001 race | 26:02.001 race | +11.41% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +13.20% |
| Jason Wu | 2023 | 20:33.001 race | 23:16.001 race | +13.22% |
| Mathilde Senter | 2022 | 24:40.001 race | 28:01.001 race | +13.58% |
| Jeff Song | 2023 | 23:20.002 races | 26:50.001 race | +15.00% |
| Zach Green | 2022 | 20:33.001 race | 23:50.001 race | +15.98% |
| Ernesto Ortiz | 2024 | 21:25.002 races | 24:55.001 race | +16.34% |
| Hunter Caggiano | 2023 | 20:10.003 races | 23:36.001 race | +17.02% |
| Ching Hei (Andre) Leung | 2023 | 22:37.002 races | 26:38.001 race | +17.76% |
| Gratian Ting | 2023 | 21:12.003 races | 27:16.001 race | +28.62% |