Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.St. Paul's School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Paul's School 5K runs slower
+1.08%
Roughly 13.0 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
37
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.81%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.08%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.92%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+0.33% to +1.97%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | St. Paul's School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaela Ocko | 2022 | 23:52.002 races | 23:09.001 race | -3.00% |
| Emma Rose Zilla | 2022 | 26:07.004 races | 25:22.001 race | -2.87% |
| Riley Gordon | 2022 | 24:43.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -2.83% |
| Zoe Campbell | 2022 | 21:51.003 races | 21:14.001 race | -2.82% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2022 | 23:19.001 race | 22:54.001 race | -1.79% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 21:47.002 races | 21:25.001 race | -1.68% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 19:55.002 races | 19:44.001 race | -0.92% |
| Meredith Monnich | 2022 | 23:34.004 races | 23:24.001 race | -0.71% |
| Sophia Lee | 2022 | 24:18.001 race | 24:08.001 race | -0.69% |
| Lia Gavin | 2022 | 23:05.001 race | 22:56.001 race | -0.65% |
| Mara Dubois | 2022 | 26:22.001 race | 26:12.001 race | -0.63% |
| Torey Mathews | 2022 | 23:56.004 races | 23:54.001 race | -0.14% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2022 | 23:02.001 race | 23:02.001 race | 0.00% |
| Dion Cheung | 2022 | 27:15.004 races | 27:16.001 race | +0.06% |
| Evan Zhang | 2022 | 20:58.002 races | 21:02.001 race | +0.32% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 19:36.001 race | 19:43.001 race | +0.60% |
| Ella Berger | 2022 | 25:06.001 race | 25:17.001 race | +0.73% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +0.75% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2022 | 20:40.002 races | 20:50.001 race | +0.81% |
| Natalia Calvillo | 2022 | 23:24.001 race | 23:45.001 race | +1.50% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 19:42.001 race | 20:01.001 race | +1.61% |
| Lara Poole | 2022 | 25:49.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +1.87% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 19:33.002 races | 19:55.001 race | +1.88% |
| Hudson Li | 2022 | 20:58.002 races | 21:25.001 race | +2.15% |
| Emilie Andrews | 2022 | 25:00.001 race | 25:35.001 race | +2.33% |
| Ava Kocher | 2022 | 24:42.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +2.56% |
| Matthew Abati | 2022 | 19:35.002 races | 20:06.001 race | +2.64% |
| Angie Feng | 2022 | 25:09.001 race | 25:58.001 race | +3.25% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2022 | 22:31.004 races | 23:15.001 race | +3.26% |
| Claire Choe | 2022 | 20:39.004 races | 21:21.001 race | +3.39% |
| Kailin Shi | 2022 | 22:31.004 races | 23:17.001 race | +3.40% |
| Masan Porter | 2022 | 22:01.004 races | 22:46.001 race | +3.41% |
| Annie Lopez | 2022 | 24:42.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +3.44% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +3.45% |
| Mathilde Senter | 2022 | 24:40.001 race | 25:35.001 race | +3.72% |
| Alexa Burton | 2022 | 21:39.003 races | 23:11.001 race | +7.08% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2022 | 23:08.001 race | 25:00.001 race | +8.07% |