Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+4.77%
Roughly 57.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
61
Strong evidence
Median difference
+6.60%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+4.77%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.74%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
St. Sebastian's 5K Course fasterEvenSt. Sebastian's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+6.04% to +8.19%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Berk | 2022 | 25:12.001 race | 24:24.001 race | -3.17% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2023 | 22:32.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -2.29% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2023 | 22:14.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -1.57% |
| Evan Zhang | 2022 | 20:58.002 races | 21:19.001 race | +1.67% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 19:23.001 race | 19:58.001 race | +3.01% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 17:42.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +3.30% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2022 | 20:25.001 race | 21:07.001 race | +3.43% |
| Liam Gavin | 2023 | 21:01.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +3.57% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2022 | 19:31.002 races | 20:15.001 race | +3.76% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 19:38.001 race | 20:26.001 race | +4.07% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 19:34.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +4.26% |
| Connor Steele | 2022 | 18:55.002 races | 19:44.001 race | +4.32% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 20:02.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +4.33% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 17:43.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +4.33% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +4.44% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 19:41.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +4.49% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 20:04.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +4.65% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2022 | 17:51.002 races | 18:41.001 race | +4.67% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 24:19.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +4.87% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:32.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +4.94% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 21:14.001 race | +5.03% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 19:22.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +5.34% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 21:47.002 races | 22:59.001 race | +5.51% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 17:14.001 race | 18:12.001 race | +5.61% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 16:41.001 race | 17:38.001 race | +5.69% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 16:56.001 race | 17:55.001 race | +5.81% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 19:03.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +6.30% |
| Yaman Habip | 2022 | 19:17.002 races | 20:30.001 race | +6.31% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 18:53.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +6.44% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 20:51.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +6.47% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 21:33.001 race | +6.60% |
| Hudson Li | 2022 | 20:58.002 races | 22:21.001 race | +6.60% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 19:32.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +6.74% |
| Abner Machuca-Diaz | 2023 | 20:12.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +6.77% |
| Haotong (HT) Xue | 2022 | 18:57.002 races | 20:14.001 race | +6.77% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 17:34.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +7.02% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2022 | 20:40.002 races | 22:15.001 race | +7.66% |
| Theodore Choe | 2022 | 18:45.002 races | 20:12.001 race | +7.73% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 22:13.001 race | 23:58.001 race | +7.88% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 23:12.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +7.97% |
| Kevin Weldon | 2023 | 22:09.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +8.05% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 23:05.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +8.38% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 17:56.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +8.74% |
| Gratian Ting | 2022 | 20:59.002 races | 22:51.001 race | +8.90% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 19:33.002 races | 21:22.001 race | +9.29% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 19:36.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +9.44% |
| Samuel Degrappo | 2022 | 19:07.002 races | 21:01.001 race | +9.94% |
| Brady Payne | 2022 | 19:34.002 races | 21:31.001 race | +9.97% |
| Taylor Holmes | 2023 | 18:38.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +10.02% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +10.25% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 17:31.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +11.23% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 19:42.001 race | 21:55.001 race | +11.25% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 26:08.001 race | 29:11.001 race | +11.67% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 19:55.002 races | 22:16.001 race | +11.80% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 20:34.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +11.99% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 20:48.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +14.34% |
| Archer Coy | 2022 | 22:38.002 races | 25:59.001 race | +14.80% |
| Zidan Graham | 2022 | 23:49.002 races | 27:23.001 race | +14.98% |
| Serhii Malevych | 2022 | 23:23.002 races | 27:22.001 race | +17.03% |
| Jaiden Delva | 2022 | 25:27.001 race | 29:52.001 race | +17.35% |
| Andrew Rodriguez | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 26:22.001 race | +17.88% |