Pairwise course analysis
NEPSTA Championship Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+7.20%
Roughly 1:26 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
41
Strong evidence
Median difference
+7.49%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+7.20%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.46%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+6.75% to +10.53%
Scale shown
-12% to +12%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | NEPSTA Championship Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machias Poreda | 2023 | 21:12.001 race | 20:58.001 race | -1.10% |
| Ray Gao | 2023 | 25:36.001 race | 25:48.001 race | +0.78% |
| Emma Finkelstein | 2023 | 24:32.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +1.43% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2023 | 21:38.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +3.47% |
| Jonathan Dase | 2023 | 16:54.001 race | 17:35.001 race | +4.04% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2023 | 20:55.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +4.06% |
| Jacob Snell | 2023 | 18:49.001 race | 19:38.001 race | +4.34% |
| Tyler Case | 2023 | 22:59.001 race | 24:00.001 race | +4.42% |
| Martin Li | 2023 | 23:12.001 race | 24:16.001 race | +4.60% |
| Ollie Seed | 2023 | 20:09.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +4.63% |
| Diego Gonzalez | 2023 | 19:47.001 race | 20:48.001 race | +5.14% |
| Owen Gorenc | 2023 | 16:43.001 race | 17:39.001 race | +5.58% |
| Charles Carroll | 2023 | 17:22.001 race | 18:25.001 race | +6.05% |
| Ella Berger | 2023 | 24:37.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +6.23% |
| Eric Zhang | 2023 | 20:09.001 race | 21:25.001 race | +6.29% |
| Ian Chang | 2023 | 17:36.001 race | 18:43.001 race | +6.34% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2023 | 22:34.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +6.43% |
| Thad Lucentini | 2023 | 18:28.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +6.50% |
| Horace (Harry) Moyer | 2023 | 18:52.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +7.07% |
| Andrew Carroll | 2023 | 17:06.001 race | 18:20.001 race | +7.21% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2023 | 20:29.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +7.49% |
| Condy Bao | 2023 | 20:59.001 race | 22:36.001 race | +7.70% |
| Delin Liu | 2023 | 20:45.001 race | 22:28.001 race | +8.27% |
| Ian Choe | 2023 | 24:33.001 race | 26:39.001 race | +8.55% |
| Hayden Gobron | 2023 | 16:24.001 race | 17:50.001 race | +8.74% |
| Allison Park | 2023 | 23:34.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +8.91% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2023 | 21:46.001 race | 23:49.001 race | +9.42% |
| Shaoquin (Sam) Du | 2023 | 18:47.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +10.03% |
| Steven Zhang | 2023 | 18:17.001 race | 20:09.001 race | +10.21% |
| Henry Wang | 2023 | 18:44.001 race | 20:44.001 race | +10.68% |
| Alex Chen | 2023 | 22:31.001 race | 24:58.001 race | +10.88% |
| Annie Lopez | 2023 | 24:31.001 race | 27:24.001 race | +11.76% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2023 | 25:27.001 race | 28:27.001 race | +11.79% |
| Kira Morales | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 24:24.001 race | +12.01% |
| Kate Wei | 2023 | 22:40.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +12.21% |
| Jeff Lei | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +14.58% |
| Cooper Wang | 2023 | 23:46.001 race | 27:24.001 race | +15.29% |
| Christina Hall | 2023 | 26:50.001 race | 30:57.001 race | +15.34% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2023 | 20:02.001 race | 23:10.001 race | +15.64% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2023 | 22:27.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +16.56% |
| Harry Shin | 2023 | 30:30.001 race | 43:07.001 race | +41.37% |