Pairwise course analysis

Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.Groton School

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Groton School runs faster

-5.39%

Roughly 1:05 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

253

Deep evidence

Median difference

-3.90%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-5.39%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+5.29%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Groton School fasterEvenGroton School slower

Confidence interval

-4.79% to -3.69%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonNoble and Greenough School 5KGroton SchoolDifference
Molly Sheehan202128:02.001 race22:28.001 race-19.86%
Luke Zhang202130:14.001 race24:42.001 race-18.30%
Christina Chen201928:55.001 race23:51.002 races-17.52%
Nadia Fourie201927:55.001 race23:24.001 race-16.18%
Aisling O'Connell201926:30.001 race22:21.002 races-15.66%
Jasper Hyatt202524:52.001 race21:00.001 race-15.55%
John Fu202131:26.001 race26:51.001 race-14.58%
Tim Cassidy202124:50.001 race21:19.001 race-14.16%
Michael Bobo202122:40.001 race19:32.001 race-13.82%
Andy Chefetz202128:09.001 race24:35.001 race-12.67%
Kinh Kieu202233:15.001 race29:06.001 race-12.48%
Nathaniel Voss202120:44.001 race18:17.001 race-11.82%
Sophia Bueno202128:34.001 race25:17.001 race-11.49%
Katie Reveno201925:07.001 race22:22.002 races-10.95%
Nick Costantino202125:10.001 race22:28.001 race-10.73%
Gabriela Gil202426:13.001 race23:25.002 races-10.68%
Braeden Moitoso202221:36.001 race19:18.001 race-10.65%
Caroline Creasy202426:05.001 race23:26.002 races-10.16%
Temi Martins Dosumu202527:27.001 race24:41.001 race-10.08%
Joey Caspar202123:32.001 race21:12.001 race-9.92%
Julia Torrey202123:34.001 race21:19.001 race-9.55%
Zidan Graham202130:13.001 race27:20.001 race-9.54%
Andrew Rodriguez202123:43.001 race21:29.001 race-9.42%
Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld202420:17.001 race18:23.002 races-9.37%
Carver Porter202122:37.001 race20:33.001 race-9.14%
Charlotte Maturo201929:04.001 race26:26.003 races-9.06%
Davis Woolbert202120:39.001 race18:47.001 race-9.04%
Zach Green202124:04.004 races21:54.001 race-9.00%
Ameer Hasan202524:20.001 race22:13.001 race-8.70%
Claire Choe202123:14.001 race21:15.001 race-8.54%
Gratian Ting202125:45.001 race23:35.001 race-8.41%
Alexander Kirby202222:37.001 race20:44.001 race-8.33%
Phoebe Lynch201931:46.001 race29:09.002 races-8.24%
Nathan Pappas202122:55.001 race21:02.001 race-8.22%
Jeremy Eaton202122:07.001 race20:18.001 race-8.21%
Julian Vidal202522:24.001 race20:34.001 race-8.18%
Lindsay Saunders202126:51.003 races24:40.001 race-8.13%
Robinson Noble202123:59.001 race22:02.001 race-8.13%
Yeabsira Gugssa201929:56.001 race27:30.003 races-8.13%
Paul Tompros202525:18.001 race23:15.001 race-8.10%
Myles McCusker202222:52.001 race21:03.001 race-7.94%
Oliver Colbert202523:09.001 race21:19.001 race-7.92%
Anthony Coston202222:57.001 race21:09.001 race-7.84%
Lucas Miller202221:53.001 race20:11.001 race-7.77%
Andrew Cao202126:59.001 race24:54.001 race-7.72%
Maxwell Rothman202424:20.001 race22:31.001 race-7.47%
Arec Keomurjian202120:05.001 race18:36.001 race-7.39%
Ruby Tsai202125:59.001 race24:04.001 race-7.38%
Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero202118:42.001 race17:20.001 race-7.31%
Joshua White202225:20.001 race23:29.001 race-7.30%
Kailin Shi202124:44.001 race22:56.001 race-7.28%
Jade Xiao202127:48.001 race25:49.001 race-7.13%
William Trautz202118:52.001 race17:32.001 race-7.07%
Lucy Anderson201929:30.001 race27:26.002 races-7.01%
Elizabeth Girian201929:30.001 race27:26.001 race-7.01%
Alexander Cesaretti202121:27.001 race19:57.001 race-6.99%
Quentin DeFreitas202225:25.001 race23:40.001 race-6.89%
Nick Glaeser202524:14.001 race22:34.001 race-6.88%
Kolby Sahin202524:16.001 race22:36.001 race-6.87%
Zoe Campbell202123:12.001 race21:37.001 race-6.82%
Vedant Deokar202119:36.001 race18:16.001 race-6.80%
Matthew Smith202223:06.001 race21:33.001 race-6.71%
Ben Luo202122:14.001 race20:46.001 race-6.60%
Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici202420:32.001 race19:11.002 races-6.57%
Henry Horvath202119:37.001 race18:20.001 race-6.54%
Justine Lam202131:21.001 race29:18.001 race-6.54%
Sid Chopra202531:23.001 race29:20.001 race-6.53%
Megan Shi202128:35.001 race26:43.001 race-6.53%
Ceres Moraitis202421:43.001 race20:18.002 races-6.52%
James Donahue202116:52.001 race15:46.001 race-6.52%
Emme Salyer202423:04.001 race21:34.001 race-6.50%
Olivia Fayemi201932:03.001 race29:58.003 races-6.50%
Samara Gorton202425:32.001 race23:54.002 races-6.40%
Myles Ndiritu202123:13.001 race21:44.001 race-6.39%
Peter Leitzes202120:39.001 race19:20.001 race-6.38%
Jackson Pagan202120:57.001 race19:37.001 race-6.36%
Sophia Wu201925:53.001 race24:18.003 races-6.12%
Louis Chiasson202121:34.001 race20:15.001 race-6.11%
James Good202122:00.001 race20:40.001 race-6.06%
Liam Warren202419:03.001 race17:54.002 races-6.04%
Annabelle Rogers202122:40.001 race21:18.001 race-6.03%
Henry Seilheimer202419:23.001 race18:13.002 races-6.02%
Wren Fortunoff201924:27.001 race22:59.003 races-6.00%
Elliot Smith202122:15.001 race20:55.001 race-5.99%
Angie Feng202128:13.002 races26:32.001 race-5.97%
Harrison Huang202125:43.001 race24:12.001 race-5.90%
Aaron Stanger202119:31.001 race18:22.001 race-5.89%
Kendra Snell202421:39.001 race20:24.001 race-5.77%
Caroline Locke201928:20.001 race26:42.003 races-5.76%
Alexander Colangelo202219:26.001 race18:19.001 race-5.75%
Toby Harrison202519:10.001 race18:04.001 race-5.74%
Christopher Hovet202417:21.001 race16:22.002 races-5.67%
Max Kesselheim202519:58.001 race18:52.001 race-5.51%
Kajsa Harrington202124:27.003 races23:07.001 race-5.45%
Sofia Samuels202129:12.003 races27:37.001 race-5.42%
Luis Sosa Espinal202323:41.001 race22:24.001 race-5.42%
Josie Silk202122:52.001 race21:38.001 race-5.39%
Sophia Deng201928:13.001 race26:43.003 races-5.32%
Evan Ning202124:39.001 race23:21.001 race-5.27%
Quinn Taylor202427:19.001 race25:53.001 race-5.25%
Alexa Burton202125:10.001 race23:51.001 race-5.23%
Lindy Zhang202423:08.001 race21:58.002 races-5.04%
Colin Bradley202518:52.001 race17:56.001 race-4.95%
Ashton Vertus202426:59.001 race25:39.002 races-4.94%
Ryan Shue202122:22.001 race21:17.001 race-4.84%
Philip Holland202420:02.001 race19:04.002 races-4.83%
Ryan Wei202119:00.001 race18:05.001 race-4.82%
Sadie Millett202122:13.001 race21:09.001 race-4.80%
Mitchell Ladd202124:53.001 race23:43.001 race-4.69%
Jack Bradner202122:45.001 race21:42.001 race-4.62%
Amy Ma201928:13.001 race26:55.002 races-4.61%
Chris Athanasia202127:08.001 race25:53.001 race-4.61%
Rohan Meier202121:46.003 races20:46.001 race-4.59%
Altan Marvi202125:00.003 races23:54.001 race-4.40%
Connor Steele202119:29.001 race18:38.001 race-4.36%
Evan Zhang202120:51.001 race19:58.001 race-4.24%
Jacob Casper202125:12.003 races24:08.001 race-4.23%
Peter Favero202118:11.001 race17:25.001 race-4.22%
Chase Bellamy202419:23.001 race18:34.002 races-4.21%
Kate Wei202128:08.003 races26:57.001 race-4.21%
Sam Dunn202119:02.001 race18:15.001 race-4.12%
Taylor Holmes202320:57.001 race20:06.001 race-4.06%
Patrick Albers202120:49.002 races19:59.001 race-4.00%
Max Hall202121:14.004 races20:23.001 race-4.00%
Abigail Riordan202126:42.001 race25:38.001 race-4.00%
Cesar Hernandez202325:32.001 race24:32.001 race-3.92%
Kelly Zhao202422:14.001 race21:22.002 races-3.90%
Natalie Williamson202121:08.001 race20:19.001 race-3.86%
Sebastian Culleton202318:11.001 race17:30.001 race-3.76%
Ella Brown202128:28.004 races27:24.001 race-3.75%
Jenny Phan202128:29.001 race27:26.001 race-3.69%
Kevin Farmer202122:14.001 race21:26.001 race-3.60%
Mariam Craig202122:30.001 race21:42.001 race-3.56%
Lincoln Hyatt202518:16.001 race17:38.001 race-3.47%
Gabriela Coates202425:06.001 race24:14.002 races-3.45%
Emma Xi202425:07.001 race24:15.001 race-3.45%
Grace Millett202122:25.001 race21:39.001 race-3.42%
Sofia Mraz202125:11.001 race24:20.001 race-3.38%
Charlotte Lokere202226:02.001 race25:10.001 race-3.33%
Lowndes Robinson202422:35.001 race21:50.002 races-3.32%
Nick Rodriguez202121:57.004 races21:14.001 race-3.26%
Ethan Anderson202119:35.003 races18:57.001 race-3.23%
Om Paithankar202122:41.004 races21:57.001 race-3.23%
Eric Nie202125:20.001 race24:31.001 race-3.22%
Celia Cheng202122:13.004 races21:31.001 race-3.15%
Sarah Ku202425:58.001 race25:09.002 races-3.15%
Alitza Soiffer202128:06.001 race27:14.001 race-3.08%
Teddy Ellis202118:59.001 race18:24.001 race-3.07%
Ching Hei (Andre) Leung202131:29.001 race30:32.001 race-3.02%
Margaret Kaneb202428:21.001 race27:30.001 race-3.00%
Emma Skelly202128:55.003 races28:03.001 race-3.00%
Lucy Wang202132:20.001 race31:22.001 race-2.99%
Lara Poole202126:52.002 races26:04.001 race-2.98%
Andrew Yang202124:09.001 race23:26.001 race-2.97%
Kate McBride202123:13.001 race22:32.001 race-2.94%
Rachel Bueker202427:15.001 race26:28.001 race-2.87%
Jack Connors202318:04.001 race17:33.001 race-2.86%
Carter Bartel202119:29.004 races18:56.001 race-2.82%
Stephanie Mo202427:50.001 race27:06.002 races-2.63%
Sophie Majernik202124:49.004 races24:10.001 race-2.62%
Sam Millay202120:02.004 races19:31.001 race-2.58%
Carter Lightburn202419:30.001 race19:00.002 races-2.56%
Sydney Nelson202424:39.001 race24:02.002 races-2.50%
Nolan Chong202422:46.001 race22:13.001 race-2.42%
Pauline McAndrew202427:51.001 race27:11.001 race-2.39%
Taylor Hauff202423:46.001 race23:12.001 race-2.38%
Alex Doctoroff202421:03.001 race20:33.001 race-2.38%
Macy Lindberg202128:55.002 races28:14.001 race-2.36%
Owen Spring202423:25.001 race22:53.001 race-2.28%
Oliver Hochman202422:24.001 race21:54.002 races-2.23%
Molly Epker202124:47.003 races24:14.001 race-2.22%
Sophie Kopp-Hills202430:17.001 race29:37.002 races-2.20%
Sophia Lee202126:04.004 races25:30.001 race-2.17%
Jason Minicozzi202417:16.001 race16:54.001 race-2.12%
Lindsay Popeo202123:44.003 races23:14.001 race-2.11%
Sofia Branco202130:09.003 races29:31.001 race-2.10%
Justin Li202125:24.002 races24:52.001 race-2.10%
Rohin Pinisetti202123:08.003 races22:39.001 race-2.09%
Noah Douglas202119:35.004 races19:11.001 race-2.04%
Richard Federico III202517:52.001 race17:31.001 race-1.96%
Eric Liang202422:16.001 race21:50.002 races-1.95%
Alex Kovtunenko202423:17.001 race22:50.001 race-1.93%
Isla Scott202424:10.001 race23:42.001 race-1.93%
Ben Guenther202119:25.003 races19:04.001 race-1.80%
Maxwell Huang202122:26.003 races22:03.001 race-1.71%
Chris Tillen202122:43.003 races22:20.001 race-1.69%
David Yu202422:47.001 race22:24.002 races-1.68%
Immy Serifovic202124:47.001 race24:22.001 race-1.68%
George Taggart202421:04.001 race20:43.002 races-1.66%
Justin Jang202419:27.001 race19:08.001 race-1.63%
Torey Mathews202126:30.001 race26:07.001 race-1.45%
Liv Ding202426:52.001 race26:30.002 races-1.36%
Ellie Sullivan202126:58.001 race26:36.001 race-1.36%
Alex Young202418:49.001 race18:34.001 race-1.33%
Arnav Harve202120:20.003 races20:04.001 race-1.31%
Austin Reid202519:12.001 race18:58.001 race-1.22%
Madi Pugatch202427:54.001 race27:34.001 race-1.19%
Victor Fat202422:03.001 race21:48.002 races-1.13%
Liam Walsh202517:41.001 race17:30.001 race-1.04%
Alexander Wasynczuk202320:53.001 race20:41.001 race-0.96%
Charlie Hall202121:59.004 races21:47.001 race-0.91%
Angelina Ha202423:09.001 race22:57.001 race-0.86%
Will McLane202119:38.004 races19:29.001 race-0.76%
Luke Hotra202122:36.004 races22:26.001 race-0.74%
Florence Morlock202123:44.001 race23:34.001 race-0.70%
Jake Rosenfeld202423:55.001 race23:46.001 race-0.63%
Cara Chang201926:46.001 race26:36.003 races-0.62%
Matthew Loose202121:24.004 races21:17.001 race-0.55%
Matthew Abati202121:30.001 race21:23.001 race-0.54%
Sparsh Verma202124:35.003 races24:27.001 race-0.54%
Justin Lin202424:50.001 race24:42.001 race-0.54%
Rebecca Janfaza202128:17.003 races28:08.001 race-0.53%
Nico Badia202126:01.003 races25:58.001 race-0.19%
John Joyce202317:29.001 race17:27.001 race-0.19%
Wes Shaller202421:08.001 race21:06.001 race-0.16%
Jonathan Demosthene202321:42.001 race21:40.001 race-0.15%
Rhodes Martinez202123:55.004 races23:53.001 race-0.14%
John Henr Lotz-McMillen202124:11.002 races24:09.001 race-0.14%
Jerry Qin202121:58.004 races21:58.001 race0.00%
Sam Blank202418:38.001 race18:39.001 race+0.09%
Emilio Manz202124:07.004 races24:10.001 race+0.21%
Justin Power202124:30.002 races24:34.001 race+0.27%
Charles Zhang202225:50.001 race25:55.001 race+0.32%
David Hermanson202119:47.003 races19:51.001 race+0.34%
Abner Machuca Diaz202323:00.001 race23:05.001 race+0.36%
Denmark Chirunga202529:40.001 race29:49.001 race+0.51%
Chris Thompson202320:04.001 race20:11.001 race+0.58%
Ethan Train202123:38.003 races23:47.001 race+0.63%
Eddie Zhang202322:16.001 race22:27.001 race+0.82%
Allison Park202128:43.004 races28:58.001 race+0.87%
Paris Liston202120:59.001 race21:11.001 race+0.95%
Alex Janower202126:56.005 races27:12.001 race+0.99%
Akshaya Sundraraj202132:02.001 race32:30.001 race+1.46%
Ryan Sanghavi202123:24.004 races23:46.001 race+1.57%
Colin Anderson202123:46.004 races24:09.001 race+1.61%
Amy Sharma201922:03.001 race22:31.002 races+2.12%
Ella Berger202126:52.004 races27:27.001 race+2.17%
Emilie Andrews202130:29.004 races31:12.001 race+2.35%
Eric Zhou202124:51.003 races25:29.001 race+2.55%
Lukas Leibisch202422:03.001 race22:38.001 race+2.65%
Adalynne Mertz202431:21.001 race32:14.002 races+2.82%
Noah Peters202123:34.004 races24:17.001 race+3.04%
Thomas Xue202123:11.004 races23:56.001 race+3.24%
Neha Kommineni202128:01.001 race29:06.001 race+3.87%
Hayley O'Connor202130:31.003 races31:44.001 race+3.99%
Liam Gavin202322:22.001 race23:18.001 race+4.17%
Gemma Soukas202133:15.002 races34:40.001 race+4.26%
Nat Holland202424:45.001 race25:53.002 races+4.58%
James Kerr202516:37.001 race17:30.001 race+5.32%
Devin Gray202124:50.004 races26:31.001 race+6.78%
Daniel Wang202125:29.001 race27:19.001 race+7.19%
Nico Brown202122:47.002 races24:28.001 race+7.39%
Shivani Gulati202133:10.002 races37:19.001 race+12.51%