Pairwise course analysis
Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-6.08%
Roughly 1:13 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
157
Deep evidence
Median difference
-5.50%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-6.08%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.90%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-5.50% to -4.19%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 29:02.001 race | 23:32.001 race | -18.94% |
| Conor Mannion | 2019 | 27:11.001 race | 22:49.001 race | -16.06% |
| Valentina Joseph | 2022 | 30:44.001 race | 26:43.001 race | -13.07% |
| Griffin Gibbs | 2019 | 24:46.001 race | 21:32.001 race | -13.06% |
| Erin Farmer | 2019 | 33:41.001 race | 29:33.002 races | -12.27% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 28:55.001 race | 25:35.002 races | -11.53% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 25:42.001 race | 22:54.001 race | -10.89% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2024 | 23:23.003 races | 21:01.001 race | -10.12% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:46.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -9.42% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 20:27.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -9.21% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 29:41.001 race | 26:57.002 races | -9.21% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2021 | 25:45.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -9.19% |
| Anya Carroll | 2022 | 27:30.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -9.03% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 25:12.001 race | -9.03% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 29:51.001 race | 27:10.002 races | -8.99% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2022 | 24:29.001 race | 22:17.001 race | -8.99% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 19:18.002 races | -8.82% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2022 | 28:28.001 race | 26:01.001 race | -8.61% |
| Henry McLane | 2024 | 17:33.003 races | 16:05.001 race | -8.36% |
| Emily English | 2019 | 30:08.001 race | 27:39.002 races | -8.24% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2021 | 37:41.001 race | 34:35.001 race | -8.23% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 33:31.001 race | 30:47.002 races | -8.16% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 17:48.001 race | 16:21.001 race | -8.15% |
| Finn Zinger | 2024 | 24:36.003 races | 22:37.001 race | -8.06% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 18:14.001 race | 16:46.001 race | -8.04% |
| Maggie Crowley | 2022 | 23:26.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -8.04% |
| Roger Gao | 2024 | 26:03.003 races | 23:58.001 race | -8.00% |
| Alena Mulhern | 2019 | 26:53.001 race | 24:45.001 race | -7.94% |
| Amalka Stuck | 2021 | 31:30.001 race | 29:02.001 race | -7.83% |
| Oliver Burstein | 2024 | 23:24.002 races | 21:35.001 race | -7.76% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2022 | 27:05.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -7.63% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 25:14.001 race | 23:21.001 race | -7.46% |
| Constance Legrand | 2019 | 27:21.001 race | 25:19.001 race | -7.43% |
| Nate Newmark | 2024 | 24:17.003 races | 22:30.001 race | -7.34% |
| Camille Destefano | 2022 | 28:16.001 race | 26:12.001 race | -7.31% |
| Michael You | 2024 | 20:06.003 races | 18:38.001 race | -7.30% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2024 | 23:27.003 races | 21:45.001 race | -7.25% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 25:23.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -7.22% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 18:17.001 race | 16:58.001 race | -7.20% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 20:39.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -7.18% |
| Emery Nordahl | 2024 | 22:53.003 races | 21:16.001 race | -7.06% |
| Sofia O'Hagan | 2024 | 27:53.003 races | 25:55.001 race | -7.05% |
| Anders Ulrich | 2024 | 21:04.003 races | 19:35.001 race | -7.04% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2024 | 28:36.003 races | 26:36.001 race | -6.99% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2024 | 23:20.002 races | 21:43.001 race | -6.93% |
| Nate Madden | 2024 | 21:28.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -6.91% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 20:44.001 race | 19:19.001 race | -6.83% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2019 | 23:10.001 race | 21:37.001 race | -6.69% |
| Samantha Noonan | 2019 | 27:18.001 race | 25:30.001 race | -6.59% |
| Allison Park | 2024 | 25:18.003 races | 23:38.001 race | -6.59% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:33.001 race | 17:20.001 race | -6.56% |
| Noah Douglas | 2024 | 17:39.003 races | 16:30.001 race | -6.52% |
| Clara Trautz | 2024 | 22:22.003 races | 20:55.001 race | -6.48% |
| Kira Morales | 2024 | 23:48.003 races | 22:17.001 race | -6.37% |
| Anray Sheng | 2024 | 23:24.003 races | 21:55.001 race | -6.34% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 24:29.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -6.26% |
| Emily Williams | 2019 | 25:00.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -6.20% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 21:22.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -6.08% |
| Lexie Hoffmeister | 2024 | 24:44.002 races | 23:14.001 race | -6.06% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2024 | 18:45.003 races | 17:37.001 race | -6.04% |
| Andrew Correia | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -6.04% |
| Vera Zatlyn-Weiner | 2024 | 22:16.003 races | 20:57.001 race | -5.91% |
| Tyler Case | 2024 | 24:21.002 races | 22:55.001 race | -5.89% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 24:22.001 race | 22:56.001 race | -5.88% |
| Ezra Lee | 2021 | 20:26.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -5.87% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 23:17.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -5.87% |
| Julia Santry | 2024 | 25:41.003 races | 24:11.001 race | -5.84% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:52.001 race | 17:46.001 race | -5.83% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 23:26.001 race | 22:05.001 race | -5.76% |
| Nahman Mack | 2024 | 18:40.003 races | 17:36.001 race | -5.71% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2024 | 22:47.003 races | 21:29.001 race | -5.71% |
| Anders Lewis | 2024 | 21:50.003 races | 20:36.001 race | -5.65% |
| Alec Borges | 2019 | 22:16.001 race | 21:01.001 race | -5.61% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:06.001 race | 19:55.001 race | -5.61% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 19:38.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -5.60% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 26:43.002 races | 25:14.002 races | -5.55% |
| Jaden Huang | 2024 | 20:25.003 races | 19:17.001 race | -5.55% |
| Dylan Kovacs | 2024 | 28:41.003 races | 27:06.001 race | -5.52% |
| Gaby Guzman | 2024 | 29:04.002 races | 27:28.001 race | -5.50% |
| Alex Cai | 2024 | 21:07.003 races | 19:58.001 race | -5.45% |
| Will Grace | 2024 | 18:43.003 races | 17:43.001 race | -5.34% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 23:06.001 race | 21:52.001 race | -5.34% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2024 | 19:08.003 races | 18:08.001 race | -5.23% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:31.001 race | 18:31.001 race | -5.12% |
| Jayden Leung | 2024 | 21:39.003 races | 20:33.001 race | -5.08% |
| Xavier Clemente | 2024 | 23:46.003 races | 22:35.001 race | -4.98% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:13.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -4.95% |
| Mairin Anderson | 2022 | 26:06.001 race | 24:49.001 race | -4.92% |
| Devin Reid | 2024 | 21:06.003 races | 20:04.001 race | -4.90% |
| Emmett Chen | 2024 | 21:04.001 race | 20:03.001 race | -4.83% |
| AJ Jay | 2024 | 21:06.003 races | 20:05.001 race | -4.82% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 25:47.001 race | 24:33.001 race | -4.78% |
| Daniel Xie | 2021 | 23:43.001 race | 22:36.001 race | -4.71% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 21:22.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -4.68% |
| Leah Farb | 2024 | 24:57.001 race | 23:47.001 race | -4.68% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 30:03.001 race | 28:39.001 race | -4.66% |
| Helena Struzziery | 2024 | 24:42.002 races | 23:36.001 race | -4.45% |
| Tony Wu | 2024 | 23:23.002 races | 22:21.001 race | -4.42% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 20:16.001 race | -4.25% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 21:16.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -4.15% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 19:47.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -4.04% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:11.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -4.04% |
| James Fair | 2024 | 19:37.003 races | 18:51.001 race | -3.91% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 17:54.001 race | 17:13.001 race | -3.82% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 22:07.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -3.77% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:57.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -3.74% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 19:26.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -3.52% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 27:52.001 race | 26:57.001 race | -3.29% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2024 | 24:53.002 races | 24:06.001 race | -3.15% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2024 | 19:14.003 races | 18:38.001 race | -3.12% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 22:14.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -3.07% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 22:23.001 race | -3.03% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 19:17.001 race | -3.02% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 22:42.001 race | -2.92% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -2.87% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 18:06.001 race | 17:37.001 race | -2.67% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 20:43.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -2.65% |
| Christina Hall | 2024 | 29:05.003 races | 28:19.001 race | -2.64% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 26:00.001 race | 25:19.001 race | -2.63% |
| Lindsay Tucker | 2019 | 29:30.001 race | 28:45.002 races | -2.54% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 25:37.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -2.34% |
| Catherine Anderson | 2019 | 27:48.001 race | 27:10.001 race | -2.28% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 21:17.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -2.19% |
| Tomas Hernandez | 2024 | 20:12.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -2.15% |
| Jeanna Shaw | 2019 | 25:18.001 race | 24:49.001 race | -1.91% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 31:39.001 race | 31:04.001 race | -1.84% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 22:37.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -1.77% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:59.001 race | 20:37.001 race | -1.75% |
| Olivia Pasquale | 2021 | 31:55.001 race | 31:26.001 race | -1.51% |
| Josephine Vogel | 2019 | 26:40.001 race | 26:18.001 race | -1.38% |
| Emilio Manz | 2024 | 20:30.002 races | 20:17.001 race | -1.06% |
| Cole Ogden | 2024 | 22:10.002 races | 21:58.001 race | -0.90% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2021 | 21:03.001 race | 20:53.001 race | -0.79% |
| Kirsten Ting | 2019 | 33:43.001 race | 33:28.001 race | -0.74% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:42.001 race | 19:35.001 race | -0.59% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 21:10.001 race | 21:03.001 race | -0.55% |
| A Raycroft | 2019 | 29:56.001 race | 29:49.002 races | -0.39% |
| Izzy O'Brien | 2022 | 25:38.001 race | 25:34.001 race | -0.26% |
| Justin Lee | 2024 | 19:09.003 races | 19:08.001 race | -0.09% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:03.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -0.08% |
| Michelle Chen | 2019 | 35:05.001 race | 35:04.001 race | -0.05% |
| Abdirizak Abdulle | 2024 | 20:36.002 races | 20:36.001 race | 0.00% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 22:42.001 race | 22:42.001 race | 0.00% |
| Eliza Hartnick | 2019 | 29:22.001 race | 29:23.001 race | +0.06% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:29.001 race | 22:38.001 race | +0.67% |
| Elizabeth Strang | 2019 | 27:19.001 race | 27:38.001 race | +1.16% |
| Buket Aktas | 2019 | 27:18.001 race | 27:43.001 race | +1.53% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 22:47.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +1.61% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 21:06.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +1.74% |
| Charlotte Torrey | 2019 | 28:30.001 race | 29:02.001 race | +1.87% |
| Jessica Ding | 2019 | 29:25.001 race | 30:01.001 race | +2.04% |
| Samantha Cody | 2019 | 26:04.001 race | 26:38.001 race | +2.17% |
| Derek Yin | 2024 | 27:25.002 races | 28:10.001 race | +2.74% |
| Jasper Dabora | 2024 | 26:12.001 race | 27:06.001 race | +3.44% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 22:13.001 race | 22:59.001 race | +3.45% |
| Emma Zuccotti | 2019 | 28:44.001 race | 31:02.001 race | +8.00% |
| G Quealy | 2019 | 30:59.001 race | 37:29.002 races | +20.98% |