Pairwise course analysis
Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.WNH 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
WNH 5K runs faster
-1.04%
Roughly 12.4 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
11
Limited evidence
Median difference
-0.25%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-1.04%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.59%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-2.38% to +0.99%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Noble and Greenough School 5K | WNH 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Churchill | 2021 | 20:56.002 races | 19:20.001 race | -7.64% |
| Will McLane | 2021 | 18:44.004 races | 18:14.001 race | -2.67% |
| Max Hall | 2021 | 20:37.004 races | 20:07.001 race | -2.43% |
| Sam Millay | 2021 | 19:32.004 races | 19:25.001 race | -0.60% |
| Arnav Harve | 2021 | 20:22.003 races | 20:18.001 race | -0.33% |
| Charlie Hall | 2021 | 20:11.004 races | 20:08.001 race | -0.25% |
| Noah Douglas | 2021 | 19:01.004 races | 19:06.001 race | +0.44% |
| David Hermanson | 2021 | 19:40.003 races | 19:50.001 race | +0.85% |
| Ben Guenther | 2021 | 19:08.003 races | 19:22.001 race | +1.22% |
| Matthew Loose | 2021 | 19:48.004 races | 20:06.001 race | +1.52% |
| Carter Bartel | 2021 | 18:48.004 races | 19:16.001 race | +2.48% |