Pairwise course analysis
RL 5K Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs faster
-2.33%
Roughly 28.0 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
211
Deep evidence
Median difference
-2.31%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.33%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.59%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-2.45% to -1.12%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | RL 5K Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Erath | 2022 | 25:34.001 race | 21:45.002 races | -14.93% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 26:17.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -12.68% |
| Lukas Leibisch | 2024 | 23:49.001 race | 21:07.001 race | -11.34% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2019 | 22:52.002 races | 20:17.001 race | -11.30% |
| Xavier Smith | 2022 | 26:35.001 race | 23:41.001 race | -10.91% |
| Jake Rosenfeld | 2024 | 25:18.001 race | 22:33.001 race | -10.87% |
| Isaac Scribner | 2022 | 22:50.001 race | 20:31.002 races | -10.15% |
| Sebastien Aubourg | 2023 | 21:03.001 race | 18:57.003 races | -9.98% |
| Leighton Glass | 2022 | 23:15.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -9.89% |
| Aryan Mago | 2022 | 24:07.001 race | 21:44.001 race | -9.88% |
| Wes Shaller | 2024 | 22:40.001 race | 20:33.001 race | -9.34% |
| Thomas Ireland | 2023 | 24:35.002 races | 22:38.004 races | -7.93% |
| Brendan Kilpatrick | 2024 | 24:50.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -7.92% |
| Maggie Cabot | 2022 | 26:08.001 race | 24:08.002 races | -7.65% |
| Sixing Wang | 2022 | 25:38.001 race | 23:41.001 race | -7.61% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 22:10.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -7.44% |
| Justin Lin | 2024 | 26:02.001 race | 24:08.001 race | -7.30% |
| Alex Kovtunenko | 2024 | 24:03.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -7.28% |
| Vincent Gilbert | 2022 | 24:43.001 race | 22:58.002 races | -7.08% |
| Justin Jang | 2024 | 19:51.001 race | 18:27.001 race | -7.05% |
| Anika Ata | 2023 | 23:30.002 races | 21:53.004 races | -6.88% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 22:20.001 race | 20:48.001 race | -6.87% |
| Antonio Ometeotl | 2022 | 22:16.001 race | 20:45.001 race | -6.81% |
| Brian Luppy | 2021 | 21:43.001 race | 20:15.001 race | -6.75% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 17:51.002 races | 16:39.001 race | -6.72% |
| David Yang | 2022 | 23:19.001 race | 21:45.002 races | -6.72% |
| Leighton Glass | 2023 | 23:23.002 races | 21:51.003 races | -6.56% |
| Luke Zhang | 2023 | 22:03.001 race | 20:37.002 races | -6.50% |
| Peter Favero | 2022 | 19:47.001 race | 18:33.003 races | -6.23% |
| Kate McBride | 2023 | 25:24.002 races | 23:49.004 races | -6.23% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 17:58.002 races | 16:51.001 race | -6.22% |
| John Pena | 2024 | 22:09.001 race | 20:47.001 race | -6.17% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 22:32.001 race | 21:09.001 race | -6.14% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 19:56.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -6.02% |
| Terry Qi | 2023 | 23:06.001 race | 21:45.004 races | -5.84% |
| David (Hershie) Liebowitz | 2019 | 24:15.002 races | 22:50.001 race | -5.84% |
| James Joyce | 2021 | 22:05.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -5.74% |
| Alex Young | 2024 | 19:32.001 race | 18:25.001 race | -5.72% |
| Thomas Scordino | 2021 | 21:37.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -5.71% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 22:12.002 races | 20:58.001 race | -5.56% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 19:31.002 races | 18:26.001 race | -5.55% |
| Florence Morlock | 2023 | 26:28.002 races | 25:01.002 races | -5.48% |
| Martin Erath | 2023 | 22:07.002 races | 20:55.003 races | -5.43% |
| David Lafond | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 26:12.001 race | -5.36% |
| James Fair | 2023 | 22:16.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -5.31% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 18:05.002 races | 17:08.001 race | -5.25% |
| Ross Tejeda | 2021 | 18:04.001 race | 17:09.001 race | -5.07% |
| Anton Balyuk | 2023 | 21:08.002 races | 20:05.004 races | -4.97% |
| Jack Connors | 2021 | 18:34.001 race | 17:40.001 race | -4.85% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 23:55.001 race | 22:46.001 race | -4.81% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2024 | 23:40.001 race | 22:32.001 race | -4.79% |
| William Hansen | 2021 | 20:35.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -4.62% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 24:01.001 race | 22:55.001 race | -4.58% |
| Tiffany Chiang | 2019 | 25:16.001 race | 24:07.001 race | -4.55% |
| Katie Tantillo | 2022 | 24:13.001 race | 23:07.001 race | -4.54% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 20:46.002 races | 19:50.001 race | -4.49% |
| Sadie Millett | 2023 | 21:09.002 races | 20:12.004 races | -4.49% |
| Alex Yin | 2019 | 23:01.002 races | 21:59.001 race | -4.49% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 17:06.002 races | 16:20.001 race | -4.48% |
| Sahovan Modi | 2022 | 25:52.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -4.45% |
| Alexandre White | 2024 | 22:12.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -4.43% |
| Andres Palacios | 2022 | 21:11.001 race | 20:15.001 race | -4.41% |
| Luke Taylor | 2023 | 19:00.001 race | 18:10.003 races | -4.39% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 23:21.002 races | 22:21.001 race | -4.28% |
| Ethan Xie | 2024 | 22:37.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -4.20% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 18:52.001 race | -4.15% |
| Owen Barry | 2023 | 20:55.002 races | 20:03.004 races | -4.14% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2024 | 17:53.001 race | 17:09.001 race | -4.10% |
| Mitchell Ladd | 2022 | 24:05.002 races | 23:07.003 races | -4.01% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 21:17.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -3.99% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 19:37.002 races | 18:50.001 race | -3.99% |
| Kogo Bennsion | 2022 | 22:04.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -3.78% |
| Catherine Bain | 2023 | 24:45.001 race | 23:49.002 races | -3.77% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 19:55.002 races | 19:10.001 race | -3.77% |
| Nick Costantino | 2023 | 18:11.002 races | 17:30.004 races | -3.76% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 23:36.001 race | 22:43.001 race | -3.74% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 19:13.001 race | 18:30.001 race | -3.73% |
| John Harrington | 2019 | 19:59.002 races | 19:15.001 race | -3.67% |
| Jack Lionette | 2022 | 17:21.001 race | 16:43.001 race | -3.65% |
| Luke Zhang | 2022 | 22:31.001 race | 21:43.002 races | -3.55% |
| Tanglertsumphun Time | 2023 | 23:31.001 race | 22:41.002 races | -3.54% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2024 | 23:32.001 race | 22:42.001 race | -3.54% |
| Sadie Millett | 2022 | 21:48.001 race | 21:02.003 races | -3.52% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2021 | 18:29.001 race | 17:51.001 race | -3.43% |
| Cameron Baylor | 2022 | 25:05.001 race | 24:14.002 races | -3.39% |
| Dylan Fu | 2023 | 22:26.002 races | 21:41.004 races | -3.34% |
| Catherine Bain | 2022 | 24:26.001 race | 23:37.003 races | -3.34% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 18:11.002 races | 17:35.001 race | -3.30% |
| Raymond Li | 2022 | 21:26.001 race | 20:44.002 races | -3.27% |
| Logan Hoffman | 2023 | 21:29.002 races | 20:47.004 races | -3.26% |
| Stealla Curwin-Amfitheatrof | 2023 | 22:42.002 races | 21:58.003 races | -3.23% |
| Alex Chen | 2024 | 22:12.001 race | 21:29.001 race | -3.23% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 17:39.001 race | 17:05.001 race | -3.21% |
| Ben Luo | 2022 | 21:04.001 race | 20:25.002 races | -3.09% |
| Owen Barry | 2022 | 20:47.001 race | 20:09.002 races | -3.05% |
| Cate Corbett | 2023 | 20:40.002 races | 20:03.004 races | -2.98% |
| Eric Liang | 2022 | 22:25.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -2.90% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 22:01.001 race | 21:24.001 race | -2.80% |
| Angela Huffer | 2022 | 22:55.001 race | 22:17.002 races | -2.76% |
| Henry McLane | 2023 | 18:43.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -2.58% |
| Noah Douglas | 2023 | 18:14.001 race | 17:46.001 race | -2.56% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2022 | 21:05.001 race | 20:33.003 races | -2.53% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 25:13.001 race | 24:36.001 race | -2.45% |
| Ryan Chang-Wu | 2024 | 24:59.001 race | 24:24.001 race | -2.33% |
| Ayur Vallecha | 2022 | 19:19.001 race | 18:52.001 race | -2.33% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:44.001 race | 18:18.001 race | -2.31% |
| Mitchell Ladd | 2023 | 23:40.002 races | 23:09.003 races | -2.18% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2022 | 19:06.001 race | 18:42.001 race | -2.09% |
| Joey Caspar | 2023 | 19:31.002 races | 19:07.004 races | -2.05% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2021 | 21:30.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -1.94% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 18:24.001 race | 18:04.001 race | -1.81% |
| Sam Leviton | 2024 | 18:30.001 race | 18:10.001 race | -1.80% |
| Daghan Konur | 2023 | 20:27.002 races | 20:05.003 races | -1.79% |
| Cassidy Bruno | 2023 | 21:34.002 races | 21:11.004 races | -1.78% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 20:03.002 races | 19:42.001 race | -1.75% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 19:12.001 race | 18:52.001 race | -1.74% |
| Sunny Qian | 2023 | 24:25.002 races | 24:00.004 races | -1.71% |
| Iliana Tassev | 2023 | 30:19.002 races | 29:49.004 races | -1.65% |
| Sue Hayashi | 2023 | 30:21.001 race | 29:52.003 races | -1.59% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 18:19.001 race | 18:02.001 race | -1.55% |
| Michael Timmins | 2023 | 20:55.001 race | 20:38.001 race | -1.35% |
| Anika Ata | 2022 | 23:57.001 race | 23:38.003 races | -1.32% |
| Vivan Das | 2022 | 19:14.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -1.30% |
| Terry Qi | 2022 | 24:22.001 race | 24:03.001 race | -1.30% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 23:29.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -1.21% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:40.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -1.20% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 22:53.001 race | 22:38.001 race | -1.09% |
| Trip Wight | 2022 | 21:29.001 race | 21:15.001 race | -1.09% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 19:48.001 race | -1.00% |
| Sawyer Rogers | 2023 | 25:13.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -0.99% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 23:07.001 race | 22:54.001 race | -0.94% |
| Joey Caspar | 2022 | 19:59.001 race | 19:48.003 races | -0.92% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:56.001 race | 22:45.001 race | -0.80% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2024 | 19:08.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -0.78% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2022 | 20:03.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -0.75% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 18:21.001 race | 18:13.001 race | -0.73% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 18:09.001 race | 18:02.001 race | -0.64% |
| Jaime Li | 2023 | 25:25.001 race | 25:19.001 race | -0.39% |
| Liam Warren | 2022 | 21:30.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -0.39% |
| Henry Orraca-Cecil | 2023 | 19:35.002 races | 19:31.004 races | -0.34% |
| Taylor Holmes | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 20:29.001 race | -0.24% |
| Sophia Ronchetti | 2019 | 31:07.001 race | 31:04.001 race | -0.16% |
| Katie Tantillo | 2023 | 23:30.002 races | 23:28.004 races | -0.14% |
| Tran Jax | 2023 | 24:40.002 races | 24:38.002 races | -0.14% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2022 | 17:46.001 race | 17:45.001 race | -0.09% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2022 | 23:32.001 race | 23:32.001 race | 0.00% |
| Devin Gray | 2023 | 19:52.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +0.08% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2022 | 21:26.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +0.16% |
| Grace Fundaro | 2023 | 26:03.002 races | 26:07.003 races | +0.26% |
| Alex Cheng | 2023 | 18:03.001 race | 18:07.001 race | +0.37% |
| Carter Lightburn | 2022 | 20:13.001 race | 20:18.001 race | +0.41% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 16:46.001 race | 16:51.001 race | +0.50% |
| Cassidy Bruno | 2022 | 23:04.001 race | 23:11.003 races | +0.51% |
| Luke Taylor | 2022 | 19:07.001 race | 19:13.003 races | +0.52% |
| Vincent Gilbert | 2023 | 21:00.002 races | 21:07.003 races | +0.56% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2022 | 18:30.001 race | 18:37.003 races | +0.63% |
| Owen Cronan | 2022 | 21:37.001 race | 21:47.001 race | +0.77% |
| Allison Luo | 2023 | 25:56.002 races | 26:08.003 races | +0.77% |
| Eric Ge | 2022 | 19:23.001 race | 19:32.001 race | +0.77% |
| Vanessa Leung | 2023 | 27:26.001 race | 27:40.001 race | +0.85% |
| Henry Horvath | 2022 | 19:08.001 race | 19:18.003 races | +0.87% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +0.91% |
| Matt Wing | 2022 | 17:03.001 race | 17:13.003 races | +0.98% |
| Ray Tie | 2023 | 24:23.002 races | 24:42.004 races | +1.30% |
| Seunghyeon (Karry) Kim | 2023 | 27:46.001 race | 28:09.001 race | +1.38% |
| Sawyer Rogers | 2022 | 26:23.001 race | 26:45.002 races | +1.39% |
| Lang Burgess | 2022 | 26:55.001 race | 27:18.001 race | +1.42% |
| Matthew Loose | 2023 | 19:34.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +1.62% |
| Damien West | 2022 | 20:31.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +1.87% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 20:43.001 race | 21:08.001 race | +2.01% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:08.001 race | 17:29.001 race | +2.04% |
| Justin Lee | 2023 | 20:14.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +2.14% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 17:43.001 race | 18:06.001 race | +2.16% |
| Eli Norden | 2024 | 23:43.001 race | 24:14.001 race | +2.18% |
| Kit Vernon | 2023 | 33:04.002 races | 33:56.001 race | +2.62% |
| Colette Brille | 2023 | 28:29.001 race | 29:16.002 races | +2.75% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2023 | 19:37.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +2.80% |
| Alice Wang | 2023 | 28:25.001 race | 29:14.001 race | +2.87% |
| Arhant Ghanta | 2019 | 24:12.001 race | 24:54.001 race | +2.89% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2023 | 18:57.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +2.99% |
| Hei Tung (Joanna) Ng | 2023 | 24:54.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +3.08% |
| Charlie Brand | 2022 | 23:26.001 race | 24:10.002 races | +3.13% |
| Charlie Hall | 2023 | 19:46.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +3.20% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:41.001 race | 26:34.001 race | +3.44% |
| Christina Chen | 2022 | 24:57.001 race | 25:50.001 race | +3.54% |
| Pipsa Palatsi | 2023 | 24:52.001 race | 25:45.004 races | +3.55% |
| Will Grace | 2023 | 19:27.001 race | 20:09.001 race | +3.60% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +3.85% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +3.87% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 19:58.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +3.92% |
| Weixin (Wendy) Wu | 2023 | 27:03.001 race | 28:09.001 race | +4.07% |
| Nick Costantino | 2022 | 19:14.001 race | 20:03.003 races | +4.25% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:36.001 race | 30:52.001 race | +4.28% |
| Isabella (Izzy) Mundel | 2023 | 28:26.001 race | 29:44.001 race | +4.57% |
| Jayden Leung | 2023 | 21:23.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +4.60% |
| Sarah Ku | 2022 | 28:35.001 race | 29:58.001 race | +4.84% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 28:02.001 race | 29:30.001 race | +5.23% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 25:23.001 race | +5.47% |
| Ellie Tesoro | 2023 | 26:24.001 race | 27:57.001 race | +5.87% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2022 | 25:46.001 race | 27:19.001 race | +6.02% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +7.13% |
| Michael Lu | 2022 | 22:21.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +8.13% |
| Diya Bhaireddy | 2023 | 30:05.001 race | 32:34.001 race | +8.25% |
| Julia Blake | 2023 | 29:33.002 races | 32:04.001 race | +8.52% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:11.001 race | 28:57.001 race | +10.57% |
| Husayn Ladha | 2022 | 23:45.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +10.95% |
| Morgan Kim | 2023 | 36:23.001 race | 41:31.001 race | +14.11% |
| Feifei Cao | 2023 | 28:29.001 race | 32:32.001 race | +14.22% |
| Jerry Li | 2022 | 24:51.001 race | 28:49.002 races | +15.96% |
| Katie Chen | 2022 | 25:57.001 race | 30:10.002 races | +16.25% |
| Jacquelyn Gao | 2022 | 25:48.001 race | 30:34.002 races | +18.48% |