Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow 5Kvs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-3.42%
Roughly 41.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
-2.29%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.42%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.77%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-4.06% to -1.77%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow 5K | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Eaton | 2022 | 21:24.001 race | 19:26.001 race | -9.19% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 22:52.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -8.38% |
| Henry Ramanathan | 2022 | 20:56.001 race | 19:22.001 race | -7.48% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2022 | 21:47.001 race | 20:24.001 race | -6.35% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 20:06.001 race | 19:00.001 race | -5.47% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2022 | 21:04.001 race | 20:16.001 race | -3.80% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:46.001 race | 20:05.001 race | -3.29% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 18:15.001 race | 17:39.001 race | -3.29% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 18:10.001 race | 17:40.001 race | -2.75% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 18:12.001 race | 17:42.001 race | -2.75% |
| Maksim Roman | 2022 | 19:47.001 race | 19:17.001 race | -2.53% |
| Adrian Tan | 2022 | 24:00.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -2.29% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 17:58.001 race | 17:34.001 race | -2.23% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 22:24.001 race | 21:58.001 race | -1.93% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 19:33.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -1.62% |
| Jack Kastner | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -1.42% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 19:56.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -1.17% |
| William Trautz | 2022 | 17:42.001 race | 17:36.001 race | -0.56% |
| Angus Harrison | 2022 | 19:00.001 race | 18:57.001 race | -0.26% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2022 | 23:26.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -0.21% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:19.001 race | 17:17.001 race | -0.19% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 19:07.001 race | 19:11.001 race | +0.35% |
| Wesley Lindstrom-Chalpin | 2022 | 26:00.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +0.58% |