Pairwise course analysis

Rock Meadow 5Kvs.Bouchard Park 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Bouchard Park 5K runs faster

-3.42%

Roughly 41.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

23

Developing evidence

Median difference

-2.29%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-3.42%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.77%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Bouchard Park 5K fasterEvenBouchard Park 5K slower

Confidence interval

-4.06% to -1.77%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonRock Meadow 5KBouchard Park 5KDifference
Jeremy Eaton202221:24.001 race19:26.001 race-9.19%
Daniel Xie202222:52.001 race20:57.001 race-8.38%
Henry Ramanathan202220:56.001 race19:22.001 race-7.48%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo202221:47.001 race20:24.001 race-6.35%
Carver Porter202220:06.001 race19:00.001 race-5.47%
Andrew Bittner202221:04.001 race20:16.001 race-3.80%
Gabriel Simmons202220:46.001 race20:05.001 race-3.29%
Nathaniel Voss202218:15.001 race17:39.001 race-3.29%
Davis Woolbert202218:10.001 race17:40.001 race-2.75%
Aaron Stanger202218:12.001 race17:42.001 race-2.75%
Maksim Roman202219:47.001 race19:17.001 race-2.53%
Adrian Tan202224:00.001 race23:27.001 race-2.29%
Fitz Courtney202217:58.001 race17:34.001 race-2.23%
Tobias Jonas202222:24.001 race21:58.001 race-1.93%
Alexander Behn202219:33.001 race19:14.001 race-1.62%
Jack Kastner202222:18.001 race21:59.001 race-1.42%
Luca Mezzanotte202219:56.001 race19:42.001 race-1.17%
William Trautz202217:42.001 race17:36.001 race-0.56%
Angus Harrison202219:00.001 race18:57.001 race-0.26%
Reuben Siegel202223:26.001 race23:23.001 race-0.21%
Miles Sandoski202217:19.001 race17:17.001 race-0.19%
Jackson Pagan202219:07.001 race19:11.001 race+0.35%
Wesley Lindstrom-Chalpin202226:00.001 race26:09.001 race+0.58%