Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow 5Kvs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+2.36%
Roughly 28.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
25
Developing evidence
Median difference
+4.15%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.36%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.21%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+3.52% to +5.86%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow 5K | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 25:21.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +0.59% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2023 | 17:54.001 race | 18:05.001 race | +1.02% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 21:15.001 race | 21:33.001 race | +1.41% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:06.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +1.49% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:07.001 race | 20:26.001 race | +1.57% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +1.79% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:06.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +2.12% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 17:52.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +2.33% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:55.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +2.70% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 24:13.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +3.30% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 19:38.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +3.82% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 24:05.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +4.01% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:18.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +4.15% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 17:56.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +4.83% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2023 | 24:32.001 race | 25:46.001 race | +5.03% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 22:44.001 race | 23:58.001 race | +5.43% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 21:03.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +5.46% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 22:41.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +5.88% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 18:09.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +7.44% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 18:45.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +8.00% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 21:59.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +8.19% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +8.31% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 21:11.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +8.73% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 17:53.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +8.95% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 26:10.001 race | 29:11.001 race | +11.53% |