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Pairwise course analysis

Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.RL 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

RL 5K Course runs slower

+3.02%

Roughly 36.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

48

Strong evidence

Median difference

+4.06%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+3.02%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+6.31%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

+1.52% to +4.72%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K

5,000 meters

Compared course

RL 5K Course

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonRock Meadow Short Loop 5KRL 5K CourseDifference
Charles Wells201927:26.001 race24:25.001 race-11.00%
Charles Stevenson201926:17.001 race24:15.001 race-7.74%
Aidan McGaugh201919:10.001 race18:07.001 race-5.48%
Ryan Cannistraro201927:47.001 race26:17.001 race-5.40%
Tyler Forg201921:42.001 race20:53.001 race-3.76%
Luke Hogan201921:40.001 race21:15.001 race-1.92%
Cesar Hernandez202424:01.001 race23:35.001 race-1.80%
Yamin Ibrahim202419:28.001 race19:08.001 race-1.71%
Nicholas Hebard201923:01.001 race22:45.001 race-1.16%
Howard Huang201922:08.001 race21:56.001 race-0.90%
Sreetej Digumarthi201922:09.001 race21:57.001 race-0.90%
John Weldon201919:51.001 race19:41.001 race-0.84%
William Trautz202416:52.001 race16:46.001 race-0.59%
Christiaan Eikeboom201920:04.001 race20:03.001 race-0.08%
Gabriel Klug201922:47.001 race22:50.001 race+0.22%
Charles Donahue201918:58.001 race19:04.001 race+0.53%
Jack Good202419:41.001 race19:56.001 race+1.27%
Alex Chen202421:46.001 race22:12.001 race+1.99%
Eita Fuse202417:58.001 race18:24.001 race+2.41%
Babikir Saeed202419:07.001 race19:36.001 race+2.53%
Riley Marth202419:09.001 race19:42.001 race+2.87%
Fitz Courtney202417:33.001 race18:09.001 race+3.42%
Tyler Smith202419:47.001 race20:29.001 race+3.54%
Alexandre White202421:21.001 race22:12.001 race+3.98%
Daniel Bittner201922:55.001 race23:52.001 race+4.15%
Luis Sosa Espinal202421:34.001 race22:28.001 race+4.17%
Ryan Chang-Wu202423:57.001 race24:59.001 race+4.31%
William Achtmeyer202420:05.001 race21:03.001 race+4.81%
John Joyce202417:09.001 race17:59.001 race+4.86%
Patrick McDonald201918:38.001 race19:34.001 race+5.01%
Timothy Snail202418:17.001 race19:13.001 race+5.10%
Alexander Wasynczuk202420:30.001 race21:33.001 race+5.12%
Joseph Koh202418:46.001 race19:44.001 race+5.15%
Sebastian Colberg202420:08.001 race21:11.001 race+5.22%
Ethan Xie202421:28.001 race22:37.001 race+5.36%
Antonio Martinez202420:09.001 race21:15.001 race+5.46%
Davis Woolbert202417:16.001 race18:19.001 race+6.08%
Cormac Anderson202422:25.001 race23:49.001 race+6.25%
Matthew Choumenkovitch201927:46.001 race29:33.001 race+6.42%
John Pena202420:44.001 race22:09.001 race+6.83%
Joseph Pandit201919:55.001 race21:19.001 race+7.03%
Maksim Roman202418:49.001 race20:12.001 race+7.35%
William Hansen201921:29.001 race23:09.001 race+7.76%
Brendan Kilpatrick202422:57.001 race24:50.001 race+8.21%
Johannes Eikeboom202420:19.001 race22:32.001 race+10.91%
Daniel Ko201926:52.001 race30:59.001 race+15.32%
Abner Machuca Diaz202420:01.001 race23:23.001 race+16.82%
Ryan Albertson201922:49.001 race27:15.001 race+19.43%