Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+2.69%
Roughly 32.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
9
Limited evidence
Median difference
-3.16%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.69%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.63%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-6.96% to +0.10%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2019 | 27:46.001 race | 23:37.001 race | -14.95% |
| Alessandro Barbiellini | 2019 | 24:28.001 race | 22:47.001 race | -6.88% |
| Joseph Pandit | 2019 | 19:55.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -4.35% |
| Patrick McDonald | 2019 | 18:38.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -3.31% |
| Daniel Ko | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 26:01.001 race | -3.16% |
| Henry Gennari | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -0.95% |
| Ryan Albertson | 2019 | 22:49.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -0.88% |
| William Hansen | 2019 | 21:29.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +1.71% |
| Mark Wilson | 2019 | 19:58.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +2.50% |