Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-3.18%
Roughly 38.2 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.30%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.18%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.21%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-1.47% to +0.86%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Houston-Davis | 2021 | 23:21.001 race | 21:58.001 race | -5.92% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 17:47.001 race | 16:46.001 race | -5.72% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:29.001 race | 17:46.001 race | -3.88% |
| Angus Harrison | 2021 | 20:02.001 race | 19:23.001 race | -3.24% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:07.001 race | 18:31.001 race | -3.14% |
| Ezra Lee | 2021 | 19:44.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -2.53% |
| Howard Huang | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -1.32% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:21.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -0.95% |
| Charles Geddes | 2021 | 22:08.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -0.60% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2021 | 21:37.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -0.54% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 19:24.001 race | 19:19.001 race | -0.43% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2021 | 22:23.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +0.30% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 21:55.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +0.46% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:04.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +0.50% |
| Daniel Xie | 2021 | 22:24.001 race | 22:36.001 race | +0.89% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 21:46.001 race | 21:58.001 race | +0.92% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 21:02.001 race | 21:17.001 race | +1.19% |
| David Carter | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +1.24% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:12.001 race | 20:37.001 race | +2.06% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2021 | 20:26.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +2.20% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 21:29.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +3.41% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2021 | 23:28.001 race | 24:27.001 race | +4.19% |
| Davin Roy | 2021 | 23:52.001 race | 24:59.001 race | +4.68% |