Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-3.52%
Roughly 42.2 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
130
Deep evidence
Median difference
-4.08%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.52%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.07%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Bouchard Park 5K fasterEvenBouchard Park 5K slower
Confidence interval
-4.39% to -2.65%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keira McNeil | 2023 | 35:16.001 race | 28:50.001 race | -18.24% |
| Juliana Lynch | 2023 | 29:51.001 race | 25:35.001 race | -14.29% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 22:31.101 race | -12.38% |
| Branford Chen | 2025 | 24:05.003 races | 21:09.301 race | -12.16% |
| Quinn Taylor | 2023 | 29:30.001 race | 26:16.001 race | -10.96% |
| Pepper Taylor | 2023 | 28:32.001 race | 25:35.001 race | -10.34% |
| Priya Devavaeam | 2019 | 29:42.001 race | 26:46.701 race | -9.84% |
| Neela Soni | 2025 | 28:58.002 races | 26:18.801 race | -9.16% |
| Maia Soni | 2025 | 26:44.003 races | 24:20.501 race | -8.95% |
| Heng Leong | 2023 | 22:32.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -8.58% |
| Tess Holland | 2019 | 26:25.001 race | 24:13.501 race | -8.30% |
| Alan Wang | 2025 | 25:47.001 race | 23:42.401 race | -8.05% |
| Camille Destefano | 2023 | 29:59.001 race | 27:35.001 race | -8.00% |
| Justin Jang | 2023 | 20:01.001 race | 18:27.001 race | -7.83% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 25:34.501 race | -7.62% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 21:53.002 races | 20:14.201 race | -7.52% |
| Lucy Walker | 2025 | 22:29.003 races | 20:47.701 race | -7.51% |
| Michael Wu | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 22:30.401 race | -7.51% |
| Rhaya Nestor | 2025 | 26:04.002 races | 24:09.801 race | -7.30% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2025 | 22:55.002 races | 21:14.701 race | -7.29% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 23:30.301 race | -7.16% |
| Charles Broderick | 2025 | 22:18.002 races | 20:44.701 race | -6.97% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 19:11.701 race | -6.90% |
| Andy Chen | 2025 | 23:00.002 races | 21:25.701 race | -6.83% |
| Quinn McCaffrey | 2025 | 22:57.001 race | 21:25.701 race | -6.63% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 25:52.101 race | -6.61% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 22:09.201 race | -6.53% |
| John Friedmann | 2025 | 25:16.002 races | 23:40.201 race | -6.32% |
| Lucas Liu | 2019 | 22:58.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -6.31% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 23:31.201 race | -6.29% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:47.001 race | 17:36.301 race | -6.27% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 19:24.801 race | -6.14% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 20:39.201 race | -6.12% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 21:28.401 race | -6.09% |
| Claire Hackel | 2025 | 22:57.003 races | 21:33.101 race | -6.09% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:21.901 race | -5.95% |
| Miles Johnson | 2025 | 26:37.001 race | 25:04.301 race | -5.80% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 21:02.601 race | -5.78% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 20:27.901 race | -5.76% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 26:18.001 race | 24:47.201 race | -5.75% |
| Lucas Miller | 2025 | 19:25.002 races | 18:19.201 race | -5.65% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:22.001 race | 20:09.601 race | -5.65% |
| Corrine Waters | 2019 | 23:46.001 race | 22:26.901 race | -5.55% |
| Ella Cuccia | 2025 | 24:11.002 races | 22:51.401 race | -5.49% |
| Reagan Whitaker | 2023 | 24:57.001 race | 23:35.001 race | -5.48% |
| Elizabeth Lapides | 2023 | 24:54.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -5.42% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 24:54.801 race | -5.39% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 20:20.101 race | -5.20% |
| Emmett Kellogg | 2025 | 28:02.001 race | 26:35.801 race | -5.12% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 20:33.001 race | 19:31.301 race | -5.00% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 18:59.002 races | 18:03.001 race | -4.92% |
| Violet Safari | 2025 | 25:02.002 races | 23:48.601 race | -4.89% |
| Percy Gao | 2025 | 21:46.002 races | 20:44.701 race | -4.69% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 20:54.901 race | -4.64% |
| Parker Lial | 2021 | 25:41.001 race | 24:29.601 race | -4.63% |
| Cordelia Loomis | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 24:08.901 race | -4.61% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 22:39.401 race | -4.40% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2025 | 22:04.003 races | 21:07.101 race | -4.30% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 22:03.001 race | 21:06.501 race | -4.27% |
| Kate Tarr | 2025 | 21:45.002 races | 20:49.901 race | -4.22% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 18:45.701 race | -4.20% |
| Cate O'Connor | 2021 | 24:50.002 races | 23:48.401 race | -4.13% |
| Jake Pappo | 2019 | 21:20.001 race | 20:27.101 race | -4.13% |
| Aggie Dursi | 2025 | 20:46.003 races | 19:55.101 race | -4.09% |
| Catherine (Cate) Wacholz | 2021 | 25:55.002 races | 24:51.501 race | -4.08% |
| Liam Peterson | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 20:26.801 race | -4.08% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2023 | 19:04.001 race | 18:18.001 race | -4.02% |
| Skye Connell | 2021 | 23:23.002 races | 22:27.201 race | -3.98% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 18:00.701 race | -3.94% |
| Riley Eyman | 2021 | 24:02.001 race | 23:06.501 race | -3.85% |
| Eloise Finley | 2025 | 25:19.002 races | 24:21.801 race | -3.77% |
| Arden Conine | 2019 | 25:25.001 race | 24:28.701 race | -3.69% |
| Carlos Panayiotopoulos | 2019 | 23:49.001 race | 22:56.601 race | -3.67% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 30:40.001 race | 29:33.101 race | -3.64% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2025 | 24:55.002 races | 24:00.701 race | -3.63% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:25.201 race | -3.44% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2019 | 25:54.001 race | 25:02.401 race | -3.32% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 21:15.801 race | -3.28% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 21:03.001 race | 20:23.501 race | -3.13% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 18:34.601 race | -3.08% |
| Gillian Griffin | 2025 | 24:32.003 races | 23:48.101 race | -2.98% |
| Avery Rubins | 2019 | 25:43.001 race | 24:57.401 race | -2.96% |
| Cam Stathos | 2019 | 17:45.001 race | 17:14.501 race | -2.86% |
| Alex Young | 2023 | 18:20.001 race | 17:50.001 race | -2.73% |
| Maya Daly | 2021 | 25:39.002 races | 24:57.101 race | -2.72% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:44.001 race | 20:12.201 race | -2.56% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2019 | 27:27.001 race | 26:45.301 race | -2.53% |
| Owen Richer | 2025 | 18:29.003 races | 18:03.401 race | -2.31% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:26.001 race | 21:55.001 race | -2.30% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:09.001 race | 18:43.001 race | -2.26% |
| Eleanor Lial | 2025 | 20:34.003 races | 20:08.101 race | -2.10% |
| Alison Leiva | 2023 | 31:16.001 race | 30:41.001 race | -1.87% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:33.001 race | 18:12.401 race | -1.85% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 23:28.001 race | 23:02.101 race | -1.84% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 24:06.001 race | 23:43.301 race | -1.57% |
| Kaia Eckton | 2019 | 28:53.001 race | 28:27.501 race | -1.47% |
| Collette Noordzij | 2021 | 24:46.001 race | 24:24.501 race | -1.45% |
| Mae Lial | 2021 | 25:43.002 races | 25:22.601 race | -1.32% |
| James McCarron III | 2021 | 17:34.002 races | 17:20.901 race | -1.24% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 21:11.201 race | -1.23% |
| Thomas Romney | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 19:14.701 race | -1.22% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:02.101 race | -1.20% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 22:18.701 race | -0.98% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:13.001 race | 17:05.001 race | -0.77% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 20:27.401 race | -0.70% |
| Allen Xia | 2021 | 23:29.002 races | 23:20.801 race | -0.58% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 21:12.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -0.55% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2021 | 24:57.002 races | 24:49.901 race | -0.47% |
| Nolan McNeil | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 21:42.001 race | -0.38% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 19:35.101 race | -0.33% |
| Camryn Flessel | 2021 | 22:49.002 races | 22:47.301 race | -0.12% |
| Cole Miller | 2025 | 18:26.002 races | 18:25.801 race | -0.02% |
| James (JJ) Oldershaw | 2021 | 19:36.002 races | 19:37.801 race | +0.15% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2025 | 19:10.003 races | 19:17.001 race | +0.61% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:41.001 race | 26:52.801 race | +0.74% |
| Julia Maimones | 2019 | 23:38.001 race | 23:49.501 race | +0.81% |
| Brianna Boucher | 2021 | 25:08.001 race | 25:22.101 race | +0.94% |
| Cally Garth | 2021 | 28:55.002 races | 29:13.401 race | +1.06% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 20:16.001 race | 20:42.101 race | +2.15% |
| Christopher Lawrence | 2021 | 26:54.001 race | 27:29.001 race | +2.17% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 20:35.001 race | 21:03.401 race | +2.30% |
| George Yerid | 2025 | 23:13.002 races | 23:57.901 race | +3.22% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 25:09.901 race | +4.56% |
| Bennett Walker | 2021 | 30:22.001 race | 32:05.401 race | +5.68% |
| Lucas Lu | 2021 | 22:41.002 races | 24:00.501 race | +5.84% |
| Nate Hagerty | 2025 | 18:58.002 races | 20:36.601 race | +8.66% |
| Dhruv Padmanabhan | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 29:24.701 race | +9.47% |
| CJ Briere | 2025 | 20:32.002 races | 22:52.501 race | +11.40% |
| Keira Amick | 2025 | 26:55.002 races | 30:31.401 race | +13.40% |
| Peter Yu | 2021 | 23:41.001 race | 30:24.901 race | +28.42% |