Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
+0.18%
Roughly 2.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
196
Deep evidence
Median difference
-0.04%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.18%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.85%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-0.57% to +1.27%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Zeng | 2019 | 26:44.004 races | 22:32.001 race | -15.71% |
| Celeste Gao | 2025 | 32:13.001 race | 27:36.001 race | -14.33% |
| Alex Mao | 2025 | 24:54.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -13.59% |
| Brandon Perez | 2025 | 29:22.001 race | 25:25.001 race | -13.45% |
| Aryan Mago | 2022 | 24:58.001 race | 21:44.001 race | -12.95% |
| Christopher Lawrence | 2019 | 29:28.004 races | 26:13.001 race | -11.03% |
| Aristo Wang | 2019 | 21:59.004 races | 19:50.001 race | -9.78% |
| Ray Ottiano | 2019 | 26:18.004 races | 23:49.001 race | -9.44% |
| Alex Xi | 2025 | 26:24.001 race | 23:56.001 race | -9.34% |
| Sarah Ku | 2022 | 33:01.001 race | 29:58.001 race | -9.24% |
| Jamie Eslick | 2025 | 24:22.001 race | 22:19.001 race | -8.41% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2022 | 32:25.001 race | 29:54.001 race | -7.76% |
| Arielle Guo | 2025 | 31:13.001 race | 28:58.001 race | -7.21% |
| Tessa Schillinger | 2025 | 27:07.001 race | 25:11.001 race | -7.13% |
| Alice Wang | 2025 | 29:04.001 race | 27:08.001 race | -6.65% |
| Kayda Henroid | 2025 | 27:32.001 race | 25:45.001 race | -6.48% |
| Lillian Peake | 2025 | 33:48.001 race | 31:41.001 race | -6.26% |
| Fiji Chen | 2025 | 22:34.001 race | 21:11.001 race | -6.13% |
| Paul McLaughlin | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -6.07% |
| Cally Garth | 2021 | 28:55.002 races | 27:13.001 race | -5.88% |
| Chase Farrick | 2019 | 22:00.003 races | 20:46.001 race | -5.61% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 24:00.001 race | -5.26% |
| Nathan An | 2019 | 23:57.004 races | 22:45.001 race | -5.01% |
| Hei Tung (Joanna) Ng | 2025 | 25:43.001 race | 24:27.001 race | -4.93% |
| Maya Daly | 2019 | 25:44.003 races | 24:29.001 race | -4.86% |
| Corinne O'Loughlin | 2019 | 27:11.003 races | 25:52.001 race | -4.84% |
| Riley Eyman | 2021 | 24:02.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -4.79% |
| Seif El Gazzar | 2025 | 19:44.001 race | 18:48.001 race | -4.73% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 21:53.002 races | 20:51.001 race | -4.72% |
| Jasmine Zhang | 2025 | 26:19.001 race | 25:09.001 race | -4.43% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2023 | 25:20.001 race | 24:15.001 race | -4.28% |
| Owen Cronan | 2022 | 22:42.001 race | 21:47.001 race | -4.04% |
| Catherine Maloney | 2024 | 28:12.001 race | 27:04.001 race | -4.02% |
| Ethan Choung | 2019 | 23:44.004 races | 22:47.001 race | -4.00% |
| Connor Bragg | 2025 | 24:49.001 race | 23:50.001 race | -3.96% |
| Angela Pedulli | 2025 | 25:24.001 race | 24:26.001 race | -3.81% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2022 | 19:25.001 race | 18:42.001 race | -3.69% |
| Jason Tae | 2025 | 23:21.001 race | 22:30.001 race | -3.64% |
| Amaro Castillo | 2025 | 18:04.002 races | 17:25.001 race | -3.60% |
| Saanvi Sadineni | 2025 | 33:57.001 race | 32:44.001 race | -3.58% |
| Alejandro Gavilanes | 2025 | 19:25.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -3.52% |
| Jason Lee | 2019 | 22:44.004 races | 21:57.001 race | -3.45% |
| Julian Yang | 2025 | 23:45.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -3.30% |
| Catherine (Cate) Wacholz | 2021 | 25:55.002 races | 25:05.001 race | -3.22% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 18:59.002 races | 18:23.001 race | -3.16% |
| Allen Xia | 2019 | 23:32.004 races | 22:49.001 race | -3.05% |
| Parker Lial | 2019 | 22:30.002 races | 21:52.001 race | -2.81% |
| Grant Vensel | 2024 | 20:33.002 races | 19:59.001 race | -2.76% |
| Juliana Di Napoli | 2019 | 28:03.003 races | 27:18.001 race | -2.67% |
| Jurnee Poulson | 2025 | 28:48.002 races | 28:02.001 race | -2.66% |
| Neela Soni | 2024 | 29:36.002 races | 28:49.001 race | -2.65% |
| Haotong Xue | 2025 | 19:33.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -2.56% |
| Lily Makepeace | 2025 | 24:19.002 races | 23:42.001 race | -2.54% |
| Ashley Zhang | 2025 | 28:19.001 race | 27:36.001 race | -2.53% |
| Sophie Chatfield | 2025 | 28:43.001 race | 28:00.001 race | -2.50% |
| Cate Wachholz | 2019 | 26:31.003 races | 25:52.001 race | -2.45% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 18:52.001 race | -2.41% |
| Henry Welch | 2019 | 19:13.004 races | 18:46.001 race | -2.34% |
| Will Husband | 2024 | 18:33.002 races | 18:07.001 race | -2.34% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 24:33.001 race | -2.19% |
| Jerry Zhang | 2023 | 32:52.001 race | 32:09.001 race | -2.18% |
| Lucas Miller | 2023 | 19:18.001 race | 18:53.001 race | -2.16% |
| Jack Lionette | 2022 | 17:05.001 race | 16:43.001 race | -2.15% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2025 | 19:00.001 race | 18:36.001 race | -2.11% |
| Owen Richer | 2024 | 18:55.002 races | 18:33.001 race | -1.94% |
| William Wilson | 2019 | 19:15.004 races | 18:56.001 race | -1.65% |
| Allen Xia | 2021 | 23:29.002 races | 23:06.001 race | -1.63% |
| Eleanor Corcoran | 2025 | 28:52.001 race | 28:26.001 race | -1.50% |
| Coco Liu | 2021 | 29:25.002 races | 28:59.001 race | -1.47% |
| Vivan Das | 2022 | 19:16.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -1.47% |
| Winnie Hatch | 2025 | 33:29.001 race | 33:00.001 race | -1.44% |
| Alexandra Nicholas | 2022 | 26:10.001 race | 25:48.001 race | -1.40% |
| Anthony Coston | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 22:24.001 race | -1.39% |
| Gryffin Daley | 2025 | 18:27.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -1.36% |
| Natalie Meleo | 2025 | 21:54.002 races | 21:37.001 race | -1.29% |
| Nick Song | 2025 | 23:30.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -1.28% |
| Annie Husband | 2024 | 24:59.001 race | 24:40.001 race | -1.27% |
| Eric Ge | 2022 | 19:47.001 race | 19:32.001 race | -1.26% |
| Nick Doan | 2019 | 20:41.004 races | 20:26.001 race | -1.21% |
| Sophie Kelly | 2023 | 24:24.001 race | 24:07.001 race | -1.16% |
| Zach Quintal | 2024 | 20:19.002 races | 20:07.001 race | -0.98% |
| P. Pogorzelska | 2025 | 27:20.001 race | 27:04.001 race | -0.98% |
| Miles Johnson | 2024 | 26:28.002 races | 26:13.001 race | -0.94% |
| Grace Tatirosian | 2019 | 23:26.003 races | 23:13.001 race | -0.92% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2022 | 21:39.001 race | 21:28.001 race | -0.85% |
| Peyton Lubeck | 2024 | 20:55.002 races | 20:45.001 race | -0.80% |
| Emily Geist | 2023 | 28:39.001 race | 28:26.001 race | -0.76% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2019 | 20:50.004 races | 20:42.001 race | -0.64% |
| Liliana Froehner | 2019 | 22:06.003 races | 21:59.001 race | -0.53% |
| Grace Daoust | 2025 | 25:35.002 races | 25:27.001 race | -0.52% |
| William Kim | 2025 | 21:49.001 race | 21:43.001 race | -0.46% |
| Finley Long | 2022 | 21:10.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -0.39% |
| James McCarron III | 2021 | 17:34.002 races | 17:30.001 race | -0.38% |
| Martin Mejia | 2025 | 23:44.002 races | 23:39.001 race | -0.35% |
| Maya Daly | 2021 | 25:39.002 races | 25:35.001 race | -0.26% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -0.16% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2024 | 18:39.002 races | 18:38.001 race | -0.09% |
| Trip Wight | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 21:15.001 race | -0.08% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2024 | 22:18.002 races | 22:18.001 race | 0.00% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2021 | 24:57.002 races | 24:59.001 race | +0.13% |
| Phoebe Quinn | 2025 | 22:42.001 race | 22:44.001 race | +0.15% |
| Zuriel Jimenez | 2019 | 27:12.003 races | 27:15.001 race | +0.18% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2023 | 17:49.001 race | 17:52.001 race | +0.28% |
| Amelia Simoneau | 2025 | 27:18.001 race | 27:24.001 race | +0.37% |
| Lang Burgess | 2022 | 27:11.001 race | 27:18.001 race | +0.43% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +0.51% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 22:08.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +0.53% |
| Jace LiVigni | 2025 | 18:30.001 race | 18:36.001 race | +0.54% |
| Skye Connell | 2021 | 23:23.002 races | 23:31.001 race | +0.57% |
| Jg Hill-Edgar | 2019 | 19:28.004 races | 19:35.001 race | +0.60% |
| Lucas Lu | 2021 | 22:41.002 races | 22:50.001 race | +0.66% |
| Cate O'Connor | 2021 | 24:50.002 races | 25:00.001 race | +0.67% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +0.74% |
| Matthew Smith | 2023 | 22:11.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +0.75% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2023 | 27:02.001 race | 27:15.001 race | +0.80% |
| Taylor Krepps | 2025 | 26:49.001 race | 27:03.001 race | +0.87% |
| Aidan Pearsall | 2025 | 17:47.002 races | 17:57.001 race | +0.94% |
| Ella McDonald | 2023 | 23:30.001 race | 23:45.001 race | +1.06% |
| Josh Taylor | 2023 | 21:40.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +1.31% |
| Kevin Yao | 2023 | 20:23.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +1.31% |
| Janciel Martinez | 2023 | 23:40.001 race | 24:00.001 race | +1.41% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +1.45% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2022 | 22:40.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +1.62% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2022 | 23:09.001 race | 23:32.001 race | +1.66% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2023 | 25:53.001 race | 26:22.001 race | +1.87% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 25:23.001 race | +1.87% |
| Camryn Flessel | 2021 | 22:49.002 races | 23:15.001 race | +1.90% |
| John O'Brien | 2019 | 25:15.004 races | 25:45.001 race | +1.98% |
| Alex Signorovitch | 2025 | 17:56.001 race | 18:18.001 race | +2.04% |
| Isabella Chen | 2025 | 25:03.001 race | 25:36.001 race | +2.20% |
| Ryan Xu | 2025 | 24:47.001 race | 25:21.001 race | +2.29% |
| Violet Ke | 2019 | 28:52.002 races | 29:34.001 race | +2.42% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 17:29.001 race | +2.54% |
| Eleanor Lial | 2024 | 21:22.002 races | 21:55.001 race | +2.57% |
| William Nass | 2025 | 22:21.001 race | 22:56.001 race | +2.61% |
| Peter Abenante | 2023 | 20:21.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +2.62% |
| Gabriela Gill | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 23:50.001 race | +2.66% |
| Martin Beaumont-Mill | 2023 | 22:26.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +2.67% |
| Husayn Ladha | 2022 | 25:39.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +2.73% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 26:34.001 race | +2.77% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2025 | 18:45.001 race | 19:17.001 race | +2.84% |
| Eric Liu | 2025 | 19:44.002 races | 20:18.001 race | +2.87% |
| Henry Becker | 2025 | 22:38.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +2.87% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 25:48.001 race | 26:33.001 race | +2.91% |
| Will Frazier | 2025 | 19:02.001 race | 19:36.001 race | +2.98% |
| Sophia Petrovas | 2019 | 23:25.003 races | 24:07.001 race | +2.99% |
| Austin Corbett | 2023 | 18:11.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +3.02% |
| Jennifer Li | 2025 | 24:39.001 race | 25:24.001 race | +3.04% |
| Brian Zheng | 2023 | 20:16.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +3.12% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2022 | 17:12.001 race | 17:45.001 race | +3.20% |
| Ellie Tesoro | 2025 | 28:39.001 race | 29:34.001 race | +3.20% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +3.32% |
| Lucy Walker | 2024 | 22:26.002 races | 23:14.001 race | +3.57% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 30:52.001 race | +3.58% |
| Christina Chen | 2022 | 24:56.001 race | 25:50.001 race | +3.61% |
| Ashley Robertson | 2023 | 28:26.001 race | 29:28.001 race | +3.63% |
| Oscar King | 2019 | 20:07.004 races | 20:51.001 race | +3.65% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2023 | 19:00.001 race | 19:42.001 race | +3.68% |
| Grant Wheelan | 2025 | 18:46.001 race | 19:28.001 race | +3.73% |
| Eli Berk | 2025 | 22:13.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +3.83% |
| Max Rochford | 2023 | 23:43.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +4.08% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2022 | 21:40.001 race | 22:33.001 race | +4.08% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +4.11% |
| George Scanlon | 2022 | 22:12.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +4.28% |
| Daniyal Mian | 2025 | 22:51.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +4.45% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2022 | 21:34.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +4.48% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2023 | 22:40.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +4.49% |
| Joshua White | 2023 | 24:34.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +4.61% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2025 | 17:31.002 races | 18:20.001 race | +4.66% |
| Claire Liu | 2025 | 32:07.001 race | 33:37.001 race | +4.67% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 20:16.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +4.69% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2022 | 21:52.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +5.34% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2023 | 21:13.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +5.73% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2022 | 19:45.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +6.08% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +6.16% |
| CJ Briere | 2024 | 19:42.002 races | 20:56.001 race | +6.26% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2023 | 23:09.001 race | 24:40.001 race | +6.55% |
| Esme Campbell | 2025 | 19:43.001 race | 21:02.001 race | +6.68% |
| Michael Lu | 2022 | 22:36.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +6.93% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2023 | 20:29.001 race | 22:05.001 race | +7.81% |
| Laura Meli | 2025 | 34:14.001 race | 37:11.001 race | +8.62% |
| Theodore (Theo) Andersen | 2023 | 28:43.001 race | 31:12.001 race | +8.65% |
| Ella Cocchi | 2025 | 29:51.001 race | 32:28.001 race | +8.77% |
| Avery Gaffney | 2025 | 22:44.001 race | 24:45.001 race | +8.87% |
| Jason Zhu | 2023 | 26:08.001 race | 28:28.001 race | +8.93% |
| Patricio Troop | 2019 | 22:38.003 races | 24:41.001 race | +9.06% |
| Peter Yu | 2019 | 21:28.004 races | 23:26.001 race | +9.16% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 24:18.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +9.19% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2023 | 27:05.001 race | 29:38.001 race | +9.42% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 28:57.001 race | +9.73% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2023 | 24:21.001 race | 28:32.001 race | +17.18% |
| Isabel Luo | 2025 | 25:19.001 race | 30:03.001 race | +18.70% |
| George Yerid | 2023 | 28:00.001 race | 33:25.001 race | +19.35% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2023 | 24:44.001 race | 30:53.001 race | +24.87% |
| Alyssa Liu | 2025 | 25:45.001 race | 32:45.001 race | +27.18% |
| Lily Oh | 2025 | 33:58.001 race | 52:59.001 race | +55.99% |