Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+2.58%
Roughly 30.9 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
109
Deep evidence
Median difference
+2.86%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.58%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.36%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+2.43% to +4.42%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Wang | 2024 | 28:41.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -11.21% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 24:04.001 race | -3.41% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:33.001 race | 18:07.001 race | -2.34% |
| Nolan McNeil | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 21:20.001 race | -2.07% |
| Antonio Martinez | 2025 | 24:20.001 race | 23:50.001 race | -2.05% |
| Ryan Growney | 2021 | 21:56.002 races | 21:33.001 race | -1.75% |
| Heng Leong | 2023 | 22:32.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -1.63% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2024 | 21:44.001 race | 21:23.002 races | -1.61% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:41.001 race | 26:17.001 race | -1.50% |
| Levi Harrison | 2024 | 18:11.001 race | 17:57.002 races | -1.28% |
| Grant Vensel | 2023 | 21:15.002 races | 21:00.001 race | -1.18% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -0.90% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 26:11.001 race | -0.76% |
| Justin Jang | 2023 | 20:01.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -0.75% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 29:36.001 race | -0.67% |
| James McCarron III | 2023 | 17:33.001 race | 17:26.001 race | -0.66% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 25:41.001 race | -0.64% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 19:58.001 race | -0.58% |
| Austin Reid | 2024 | 21:57.001 race | 21:52.002 races | -0.38% |
| Harvey Rupp | 2019 | 23:11.001 race | 23:06.001 race | -0.36% |
| Charles Stevenson | 2019 | 24:14.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +0.07% |
| James Kerr | 2024 | 16:45.001 race | 16:47.002 races | +0.20% |
| Zach Heaton | 2024 | 20:24.001 race | 20:27.002 races | +0.25% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:54.001 race | +0.25% |
| Andy Zeng | 2023 | 22:42.001 race | 22:48.001 race | +0.44% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 17:08.001 race | +0.49% |
| John Joyce | 2025 | 16:56.001 race | 17:01.001 race | +0.49% |
| Kylee Bolding | 2023 | 25:22.002 races | 25:30.001 race | +0.53% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +0.53% |
| Kate Pickford | 2023 | 21:34.002 races | 21:42.001 race | +0.62% |
| Mae Lial | 2023 | 23:56.003 races | 24:06.001 race | +0.70% |
| David Comander | 2024 | 22:43.001 race | 22:54.002 races | +0.81% |
| Zach Heaton | 2022 | 20:01.001 race | 20:11.003 races | +0.83% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2022 | 17:35.001 race | 17:44.003 races | +0.85% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +0.96% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 23:28.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +0.99% |
| Toby Harrison | 2024 | 19:21.001 race | 19:35.002 races | +1.21% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +1.38% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +1.45% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2019 | 27:21.001 race | 27:45.001 race | +1.46% |
| Annie Husband | 2023 | 26:27.003 races | 26:51.001 race | +1.51% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 22:56.001 race | +1.55% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2023 | 25:02.003 races | 25:26.001 race | +1.60% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:26.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +1.78% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +1.81% |
| Richie Joyce | 2025 | 24:08.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +1.93% |
| Jack Halloran | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 18:36.001 race | +2.01% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2023 | 19:17.003 races | 19:42.001 race | +2.16% |
| Michael Allen | 2022 | 21:50.001 race | 22:22.002 races | +2.44% |
| Peyton Lubeck | 2023 | 20:04.003 races | 20:34.001 race | +2.49% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:44.001 race | 21:15.001 race | +2.49% |
| Anthony Marcucci | 2025 | 24:09.001 race | 24:46.001 race | +2.55% |
| Liam Walsh | 2024 | 17:36.001 race | 18:04.002 races | +2.65% |
| Henry Bowman | 2025 | 21:30.001 race | 22:06.001 race | +2.79% |
| Eric Archerman | 2024 | 19:15.001 race | 19:48.002 races | +2.86% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2025 | 18:34.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +2.96% |
| Darian Estrada | 2024 | 26:42.001 race | 27:30.002 races | +3.00% |
| South Fulwiler | 2023 | 26:29.003 races | 27:18.001 race | +3.08% |
| Parker Lial | 2023 | 23:34.003 races | 24:18.001 race | +3.11% |
| Patrick Fennell | 2025 | 21:56.001 race | 22:37.001 race | +3.12% |
| Ryan Growney | 2023 | 19:37.002 races | 20:14.001 race | +3.14% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2024 | 18:15.001 race | 18:52.002 races | +3.38% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +3.48% |
| Samantha Brooks | 2023 | 26:32.002 races | 27:29.001 race | +3.58% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2022 | 21:24.001 race | 22:11.002 races | +3.66% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:13.001 race | 18:55.002 races | +3.84% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2024 | 17:23.001 race | 18:05.002 races | +4.03% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 21:30.001 race | 22:22.002 races | +4.03% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 20:03.001 race | +4.07% |
| Alex Young | 2023 | 18:20.001 race | 19:06.001 race | +4.18% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 21:03.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +4.28% |
| Riley Eyman | 2023 | 20:38.003 races | 21:31.001 race | +4.28% |
| Owen Richer | 2023 | 19:03.003 races | 19:52.001 race | +4.29% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 17:45.001 race | 18:31.002 races | +4.32% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2024 | 20:17.001 race | 21:10.002 races | +4.35% |
| Thomas Romney | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +4.36% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +4.37% |
| Katherine Clovis | 2023 | 27:03.002 races | 28:14.001 race | +4.37% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2023 | 21:31.003 races | 22:29.001 race | +4.49% |
| Van Crocker | 2023 | 20:25.002 races | 21:21.001 race | +4.57% |
| Eric Zhu | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 20:00.002 races | +4.80% |
| Calvin Reid | 2024 | 19:02.001 race | 19:58.002 races | +4.90% |
| Avish Kumar | 2024 | 26:25.001 race | 27:43.002 races | +4.92% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 23:27.003 races | +5.00% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 19:39.001 race | 20:40.003 races | +5.17% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 19:35.004 races | +5.29% |
| Ameer Hasan | 2024 | 24:44.001 race | 26:03.001 race | +5.32% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 19:50.001 race | 20:55.003 races | +5.46% |
| Richard Fedrico | 2024 | 17:46.001 race | 18:49.001 race | +5.91% |
| Oscar King | 2021 | 18:07.002 races | 19:13.001 race | +6.07% |
| Colin Bradley | 2024 | 19:28.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +6.42% |
| James McCarron III | 2021 | 16:47.002 races | 17:52.001 race | +6.45% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 20:35.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +6.56% |
| Bobby Ferguson | 2025 | 23:44.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +6.74% |
| Mia Fiore | 2023 | 26:30.001 race | 28:20.001 race | +6.92% |
| Joseph Koh | 2025 | 20:39.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +7.34% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2025 | 21:18.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +7.98% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 22:14.001 race | 24:04.003 races | +8.25% |
| Paul Tompros | 2024 | 26:50.001 race | 29:17.002 races | +9.13% |
| P Brown | 2023 | 24:04.002 races | 26:25.001 race | +9.76% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 20:25.003 races | +9.77% |
| James (JJ) Oldershaw | 2021 | 18:55.002 races | 20:50.001 race | +10.13% |
| Oliver Colbert | 2024 | 21:03.001 race | 23:13.002 races | +10.29% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2021 | 20:16.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +10.77% |
| Nick Glaeser | 2024 | 26:46.001 race | 30:03.002 races | +12.27% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 21:09.001 race | 24:04.003 races | +13.79% |
| Allen Xia | 2021 | 22:45.002 races | 27:07.001 race | +19.19% |
| Peter Yu | 2021 | 23:41.001 race | 30:55.001 race | +30.54% |
| Darian Estrada | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 26:45.002 races | +35.56% |