Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Rock Meadow 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
-0.10%
Roughly 1.2 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
15
Developing evidence
Median difference
+2.51%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-0.10%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.40%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.39% to +8.35%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Rock Meadow 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Warren | 2023 | 19:51.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -1.43% |
| Sahovan Modi | 2023 | 21:42.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -0.92% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2023 | 19:11.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -0.70% |
| Philip Holland | 2023 | 21:43.001 race | 21:43.001 race | 0.00% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2023 | 17:00.001 race | 17:03.001 race | +0.29% |
| Aryan Mago | 2023 | 22:06.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +1.96% |
| David Yu | 2023 | 24:11.001 race | 24:46.001 race | +2.41% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2023 | 19:54.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +2.51% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2023 | 21:36.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +2.85% |
| Raymond Hildreth | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 21:15.001 race | +3.49% |
| Michael Lu | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 20:49.001 race | +5.13% |
| Maxwell Rothman | 2023 | 25:08.001 race | 26:38.001 race | +5.97% |
| Jeffrey Wu | 2023 | 23:30.001 race | 26:39.001 race | +13.40% |
| Matthew Sennelius | 2023 | 28:13.001 race | 33:41.001 race | +19.37% |
| Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici | 2023 | 25:14.001 race | 30:33.001 race | +21.07% |