Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+2.04%
Roughly 24.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
217
Deep evidence
Median difference
+2.78%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.04%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.09%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
LA 5K Course fasterEvenLA 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+2.73% to +3.95%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 21:08.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -8.99% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2022 | 25:18.002 races | 23:18.001 race | -7.91% |
| Mason Peng | 2022 | 26:01.002 races | 24:33.001 race | -5.64% |
| Zach Heaton | 2022 | 21:20.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -5.47% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 16:53.002 races | 16:01.001 race | -5.13% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 18:44.001 race | 17:52.001 race | -4.63% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 25:55.001 race | 24:55.002 races | -3.86% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2019 | 25:15.004 races | 24:19.001 race | -3.70% |
| Theodore (Theo) Andersen | 2022 | 30:18.001 race | 29:31.001 race | -2.59% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 18:59.001 race | 18:31.002 races | -2.46% |
| Bear Brooks | 2022 | 17:41.002 races | 17:15.001 race | -2.45% |
| Crystal Xia | 2019 | 28:04.001 race | 27:32.002 races | -1.90% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2022 | 23:47.002 races | 23:28.001 race | -1.33% |
| Will Osborne | 2019 | 20:53.005 races | 20:38.001 race | -1.20% |
| Brian Zheng | 2022 | 21:44.002 races | 21:29.001 race | -1.15% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2019 | 27:39.001 race | 27:20.001 race | -1.15% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 25:10.004 races | 24:55.001 race | -0.99% |
| Nick Haugen | 2019 | 18:28.005 races | 18:22.001 race | -0.54% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2022 | 21:41.002 races | 21:34.001 race | -0.54% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:40.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -0.54% |
| Adam Jac | 2019 | 23:09.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -0.50% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 20:28.002 races | -0.49% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -0.42% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 25:27.002 races | 25:23.001 race | -0.26% |
| Will Ryckman | 2021 | 24:06.002 races | 24:03.001 race | -0.21% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 25:21.001 race | 25:18.002 races | -0.20% |
| Ben Croft | 2019 | 19:54.005 races | 19:52.001 race | -0.17% |
| Henry Gennari | 2019 | 22:55.001 race | 22:54.001 race | -0.07% |
| Amelia Barlow | 2022 | 23:19.002 races | 23:18.001 race | -0.07% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 19:25.002 races | 0.00% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 20:59.001 race | 20:59.002 races | 0.00% |
| Anouk Shin | 2022 | 28:49.003 races | 28:49.001 race | 0.00% |
| Sakura (Sara) Hatsu | 2022 | 28:55.005 races | 28:55.001 race | 0.00% |
| Weixin (Wendy) Wu | 2022 | 27:39.004 races | 27:39.001 race | 0.00% |
| Seunghyeon (Karry) Kim | 2022 | 33:23.005 races | 33:23.001 race | 0.00% |
| Isabella (Izzy) Mundel | 2022 | 31:48.004 races | 31:48.001 race | 0.00% |
| Diya Bhaireddy | 2022 | 33:21.004 races | 33:21.001 race | 0.00% |
| Adaline (Addy) Zhang | 2022 | 31:59.004 races | 31:59.001 race | 0.00% |
| Yaqi ((Amy) Zhan | 2022 | 41:38.005 races | 41:38.001 race | 0.00% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2022 | 26:45.005 races | 26:45.001 race | 0.00% |
| Andria Bao | 2022 | 25:03.004 races | 25:03.001 race | 0.00% |
| Jasmine Zhang | 2022 | 27:12.004 races | 27:12.001 race | 0.00% |
| Emma Schillinger | 2022 | 25:39.005 races | 25:39.001 race | 0.00% |
| Sita Warner | 2022 | 27:04.004 races | 27:04.001 race | 0.00% |
| Judy Xie | 2022 | 26:19.005 races | 26:19.001 race | 0.00% |
| Charlotte Lokere | 2022 | 26:37.001 race | 26:37.003 races | 0.00% |
| Ava Springsteel | 2022 | 33:03.001 race | 33:03.001 race | 0.00% |
| Audrey Marshman | 2022 | 27:10.001 race | 27:10.001 race | 0.00% |
| Brooke Georges | 2022 | 30:38.001 race | 30:38.001 race | 0.00% |
| Sooah (Sua) Yoo | 2022 | 27:02.004 races | 27:02.001 race | 0.00% |
| Chloe Duran | 2022 | 40:45.002 races | 40:45.001 race | 0.00% |
| Aurora (Rory) Hutchins | 2022 | 32:28.003 races | 32:28.001 race | 0.00% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2022 | 30:32.001 race | 30:32.001 race | 0.00% |
| Mary Jane (MJ) Fisher | 2022 | 33:13.001 race | 33:13.001 race | 0.00% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:28.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +0.16% |
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 21:10.002 races | 21:12.001 race | +0.16% |
| Peter Abenante | 2022 | 20:50.002 races | 20:54.001 race | +0.32% |
| Jiayi Yu | 2019 | 29:26.004 races | 29:32.001 race | +0.34% |
| Alexander Guo | 2025 | 22:08.002 races | 22:14.001 race | +0.45% |
| Patrick McDonald | 2019 | 18:18.001 race | 18:23.001 race | +0.46% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 21:36.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +0.46% |
| Thomas Flatley | 2019 | 18:25.001 race | 18:31.001 race | +0.54% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 23:25.002 races | 23:33.001 race | +0.57% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 19:30.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +0.60% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2025 | 20:46.002 races | 20:55.001 race | +0.72% |
| Kendall Sommers | 2019 | 24:10.004 races | 24:21.001 race | +0.76% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2022 | 21:57.002 races | 22:07.001 race | +0.76% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 21:34.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +0.85% |
| Kevin Yao | 2022 | 20:56.002 races | 21:09.001 race | +1.04% |
| Levi Harrison | 2022 | 18:22.001 race | 18:34.001 race | +1.09% |
| Thomas Egan | 2025 | 20:52.002 races | 21:06.001 race | +1.12% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:16.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +1.12% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:06.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +1.13% |
| Eve Elkins | 2019 | 24:38.004 races | 24:55.001 race | +1.15% |
| Will Ryckman | 2019 | 21:44.005 races | 21:59.001 race | +1.15% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 23:10.001 race | 23:26.002 races | +1.15% |
| William Hansen | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +1.19% |
| Vanessa Shipley | 2019 | 23:49.001 race | 24:06.001 race | +1.19% |
| Sunny Li | 2019 | 29:50.004 races | 30:13.001 race | +1.28% |
| Arhant Ghanta | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 23:39.002 races | +1.36% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 19:15.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +1.39% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2022 | 20:53.001 race | 21:11.001 race | +1.44% |
| James Lammert | 2019 | 18:29.004 races | 18:45.001 race | +1.44% |
| J. Wei | 2019 | 27:20.003 races | 27:46.001 race | +1.59% |
| Nick Sparrow | 2019 | 18:54.005 races | 19:12.001 race | +1.59% |
| Patrick Snail | 2025 | 20:34.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +1.62% |
| Colin Grierson | 2025 | 18:23.002 races | 18:42.001 race | +1.72% |
| Cora Knoell | 2022 | 22:53.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +1.75% |
| Jack Griffin | 2019 | 19:08.005 races | 19:29.001 race | +1.83% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2022 | 22:53.002 races | 23:19.001 race | +1.89% |
| Bobby Liu | 2022 | 28:18.001 race | 28:52.001 race | +2.00% |
| Kartik Donepudi | 2019 | 21:36.004 races | 22:02.001 race | +2.01% |
| Skylar Bedard | 2022 | 22:49.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +2.05% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 20:55.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +2.07% |
| AJ Gorman | 2021 | 18:23.003 races | 18:46.001 race | +2.09% |
| Alessandro Barbiellini | 2019 | 22:46.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +2.12% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 16:28.001 race | 16:50.002 races | +2.23% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 32:26.001 race | 33:10.001 race | +2.26% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 26:38.004 races | 27:15.001 race | +2.32% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 20:07.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +2.32% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +2.44% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 24:47.001 race | +2.48% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 26:51.001 race | 27:32.002 races | +2.55% |
| Matthew Mariani | 2022 | 20:34.001 race | 21:06.001 race | +2.59% |
| Nashua Poreda | 2019 | 21:47.004 races | 22:21.001 race | +2.60% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 17:42.002 races | 18:10.001 race | +2.64% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 24:53.003 races | 25:33.001 race | +2.68% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 21:39.001 race | +2.69% |
| Liam Walsh | 2022 | 19:13.001 race | 19:45.001 race | +2.78% |
| Ben Bundy | 2019 | 20:15.005 races | 20:49.001 race | +2.80% |
| Jack Good | 2025 | 18:54.002 races | 19:26.001 race | +2.82% |
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2019 | 23:36.001 race | 24:16.001 race | +2.82% |
| Mark Wilson | 2019 | 20:26.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +2.85% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:31.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +2.88% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 19:38.002 races | +2.88% |
| Tegan Young | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 25:03.002 races | +2.95% |
| Pierce Courtney | 2025 | 19:14.002 races | 19:48.001 race | +2.95% |
| Blake Gattuso | 2019 | 18:01.004 races | 18:33.001 race | +2.96% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 24:49.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +3.02% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2022 | 21:23.002 races | 22:02.001 race | +3.04% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2019 | 18:24.001 race | 18:58.001 race | +3.08% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 18:19.002 races | 18:53.001 race | +3.09% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 17:31.002 races | 18:04.001 race | +3.14% |
| Bennett Jones | 2019 | 19:57.005 races | 20:36.001 race | +3.26% |
| Austin Hunt | 2019 | 20:00.005 races | 20:40.001 race | +3.33% |
| Eric Archerman | 2022 | 19:32.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +3.41% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 24:24.004 races | 25:14.001 race | +3.42% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2025 | 17:13.002 races | 17:49.001 race | +3.48% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 19:43.001 race | 20:25.001 race | +3.55% |
| Grace Maloney | 2022 | 24:23.002 races | 25:15.001 race | +3.55% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2022 | 24:45.002 races | 25:39.001 race | +3.64% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 24:07.001 race | 25:00.002 races | +3.66% |
| Joe Zhao | 2019 | 24:45.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +3.70% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2022 | 19:38.001 race | 20:22.001 race | +3.74% |
| Margo Lewis | 2019 | 22:45.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +3.74% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 20:53.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +3.75% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 22:09.001 race | 22:59.001 race | +3.76% |
| Ben Pestana | 2019 | 21:14.003 races | 22:02.001 race | +3.77% |
| Amina Cifric | 2022 | 23:51.002 races | 24:46.001 race | +3.84% |
| Kevin Takayama | 2019 | 29:54.002 races | 31:04.001 race | +3.90% |
| Mateo MacRi | 2019 | 19:33.005 races | 20:19.001 race | +3.92% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 25:44.004 races | 26:47.001 race | +4.08% |
| Andrew Zhou | 2019 | 19:43.004 races | 20:32.001 race | +4.14% |
| Tiffany Chiang | 2019 | 24:01.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +4.16% |
| Jack Carolan | 2019 | 27:29.001 race | 28:38.002 races | +4.18% |
| Josh Taylor | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +4.22% |
| Naila Strong | 2019 | 25:00.004 races | 26:05.001 race | +4.33% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 18:03.001 race | 18:50.001 race | +4.34% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 20:51.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +4.40% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 21:52.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +4.65% |
| Fiona Tran | 2019 | 35:20.004 races | 36:59.001 race | +4.67% |
| Isabella Murray | 2019 | 29:49.004 races | 31:13.001 race | +4.70% |
| Alex Chen | 2025 | 21:15.002 races | 22:16.001 race | +4.78% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 27:31.004 races | 28:50.001 race | +4.78% |
| Martin Ma | 2019 | 22:08.005 races | 23:12.001 race | +4.82% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 20:42.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +4.91% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2022 | 20:49.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +4.96% |
| Adrian Chen | 2022 | 26:01.001 race | 27:19.001 race | +5.00% |
| Elisabeth Marota | 2019 | 29:34.003 races | 31:04.001 race | +5.07% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 19:20.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +5.09% |
| Daniel Reyes | 2019 | 24:27.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +5.11% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 24:47.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +5.18% |
| Tony Wei | 2019 | 21:53.005 races | 23:02.001 race | +5.26% |
| Judy Xie | 2019 | 22:07.004 races | 23:17.001 race | +5.28% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 25:11.004 races | 26:31.001 race | +5.29% |
| Martin Li | 2019 | 25:16.003 races | 26:37.001 race | +5.34% |
| Max Aleksandrovics | 2019 | 24:24.001 race | 25:44.001 race | +5.46% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:20.001 race | 18:20.001 race | +5.77% |
| Natalie Zaterka | 2021 | 21:49.003 races | 23:05.001 race | +5.81% |
| Riley Marth | 2025 | 19:11.002 races | 20:18.001 race | +5.82% |
| Sam Kim | 2019 | 25:15.001 race | 26:44.001 race | +5.87% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 20:31.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +5.93% |
| Natalie Zaterka | 2019 | 22:52.003 races | 24:14.001 race | +5.98% |
| Shaniece Nugent | 2019 | 25:31.001 race | 27:03.002 races | +6.01% |
| Weixin (Wendy) Wu | 2021 | 28:15.003 races | 29:57.001 race | +6.02% |
| Willow Dixon | 2022 | 23:54.001 race | 25:22.001 race | +6.14% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 17:39.002 races | 18:44.001 race | +6.14% |
| Coco Chen | 2021 | 28:50.003 races | 30:38.001 race | +6.24% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 23:12.001 race | 24:40.001 race | +6.32% |
| Andria Bao | 2019 | 25:30.004 races | 27:10.001 race | +6.54% |
| Joseph Pandit | 2019 | 18:53.001 race | 20:11.001 race | +6.88% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 26:12.004 races | 28:01.001 race | +6.93% |
| Daniela Ortiz | 2019 | 24:16.004 races | 25:57.001 race | +6.94% |
| Arthur Gao | 2019 | 28:56.003 races | 31:02.001 race | +7.26% |
| Adam Jin | 2019 | 24:33.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +7.33% |
| Veronika Kitsul | 2021 | 26:08.004 races | 28:03.001 race | +7.33% |
| Luke Desmaison | 2019 | 20:46.001 race | 22:18.001 race | +7.38% |
| David Ma | 2019 | 24:07.004 races | 25:56.001 race | +7.53% |
| Edo Spadaccini | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 26:11.001 race | +7.60% |
| Lindsay Davis | 2019 | 22:56.004 races | 24:42.001 race | +7.70% |
| Joshua Bergers | 2019 | 16:34.005 races | 17:53.001 race | +7.95% |
| Sophia Ronchetti | 2019 | 30:06.001 race | 32:34.001 race | +8.19% |
| Daniel Ko | 2019 | 23:34.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +8.49% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 20:02.001 race | 21:45.002 races | +8.57% |
| Hanna Lapides | 2019 | 24:22.001 race | 26:28.001 race | +8.62% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2021 | 20:36.002 races | 22:25.001 race | +8.82% |
| Jason Zhu | 2022 | 24:08.002 races | 26:16.001 race | +8.84% |
| Bennett Jones | 2021 | 19:13.003 races | 20:59.001 race | +9.19% |
| Ashley Picard | 2019 | 23:51.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +10.48% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2021 | 21:43.002 races | 24:03.001 race | +10.74% |
| Lila Graves | 2022 | 26:38.002 races | 29:32.001 race | +10.89% |
| Yichen (Anna) Xing | 2021 | 31:33.001 race | 35:05.001 race | +11.20% |
| Oliver Kim | 2019 | 25:50.001 race | 28:49.001 race | +11.55% |
| Gardner Brown | 2019 | 20:30.001 race | 22:56.001 race | +11.87% |
| Helena Xie | 2021 | 23:20.004 races | 26:18.001 race | +12.71% |
| Hayden Gobron | 2021 | 19:05.002 races | 21:32.001 race | +12.84% |
| James Nichols-Worley | 2021 | 19:11.003 races | 21:44.001 race | +13.29% |
| Jaclyn Zatsiorsky | 2021 | 27:27.004 races | 31:07.001 race | +13.36% |
| Marianne Lyons | 2019 | 25:09.004 races | 28:38.001 race | +13.85% |
| Maddie Bazinet | 2021 | 31:18.002 races | 35:59.001 race | +14.96% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:38.001 race | 34:11.002 races | +15.35% |
| Diana Oh | 2021 | 31:04.003 races | 35:59.001 race | +15.83% |
| Gabriel Yu | 2019 | 22:58.001 race | 26:40.001 race | +16.11% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2021 | 25:09.002 races | 29:25.001 race | +16.96% |
| Sooah (Sua) Yoo | 2021 | 28:30.004 races | 33:26.001 race | +17.31% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 21:20.001 race | 25:45.001 race | +20.70% |
| Jackie Huang | 2021 | 28:31.002 races | 36:21.001 race | +27.47% |