Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Rock Meadow 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow 5K runs slower
+0.62%
Roughly 7.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
15
Developing evidence
Median difference
-0.35%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.62%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.05%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-1.13% to +1.19%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Rock Meadow 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Guenther | 2022 | 18:39.002 races | 17:55.001 race | -3.93% |
| Alex Cheng | 2022 | 18:42.002 races | 18:17.001 race | -2.23% |
| Charlie Hall | 2022 | 18:51.002 races | 18:27.001 race | -2.12% |
| Maxwell Huang | 2022 | 19:08.002 races | 18:49.001 race | -1.66% |
| Carter Bartel | 2022 | 18:20.002 races | 18:04.001 race | -1.45% |
| Will McLane | 2022 | 17:58.002 races | 17:44.001 race | -1.30% |
| Patrick Albers | 2022 | 18:29.002 races | 18:23.001 race | -0.54% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2023 | 17:06.601 race | 17:03.001 race | -0.35% |
| Tim Churchill | 2022 | 17:47.002 races | 17:53.001 race | +0.56% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2023 | 18:53.601 race | 19:03.001 race | +0.83% |
| David Hermanson | 2022 | 18:48.002 races | 19:03.001 race | +1.33% |
| Liam Warren | 2023 | 19:15.901 race | 19:34.001 race | +1.57% |
| Noah Douglas | 2022 | 17:22.002 races | 17:40.001 race | +1.73% |
| Matthew Loose | 2022 | 19:47.002 races | 20:33.001 race | +3.88% |
| Michael Lu | 2023 | 19:56.401 race | 20:49.001 race | +4.40% |