Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower
+0.29%
Roughly 3.5 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
91
Strong evidence
Median difference
+1.06%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.29%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.46%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.11% to +2.14%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ryckman | 2021 | 24:06.002 races | 20:34.001 race | -14.66% |
| Ryan Hung | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 20:09.001 race | -11.23% |
| Teddy Shortsleeve | 2025 | 22:32.001 race | 20:48.001 race | -7.69% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 25:33.002 races | 24:10.001 race | -5.41% |
| Charles Stevenson | 2019 | 27:45.002 races | 26:17.001 race | -5.29% |
| Liam Childs | 2021 | 23:18.002 races | 22:07.001 race | -5.08% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2021 | 21:43.002 races | 20:39.001 race | -4.91% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 23:38.002 races | 22:39.001 race | -4.16% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 24:00.002 races | 23:01.001 race | -4.10% |
| Xutin Tang | 2025 | 19:14.001 race | 18:32.001 race | -3.64% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2025 | 23:32.002 races | 22:41.001 race | -3.61% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 18:56.002 races | 18:19.001 race | -3.26% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 23:31.002 races | 22:47.001 race | -3.12% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 17:56.002 races | 17:24.001 race | -2.97% |
| Ethan Xie | 2025 | 21:54.002 races | 21:21.001 race | -2.51% |
| John Weldon | 2019 | 20:21.002 races | 19:51.001 race | -2.46% |
| Shea McDonnell | 2025 | 22:11.002 races | 21:40.001 race | -2.33% |
| Eric Zhang | 2021 | 23:29.002 races | 22:57.001 race | -2.27% |
| AJ Gorman | 2021 | 18:23.003 races | 18:01.001 race | -1.99% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2021 | 20:36.002 races | 20:12.001 race | -1.94% |
| Tyler Smith | 2025 | 20:53.002 races | 20:31.001 race | -1.76% |
| Maksim Roman | 2024 | 19:05.001 race | 18:49.001 race | -1.40% |
| Thomas Egan | 2025 | 21:47.002 races | 21:29.001 race | -1.38% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2025 | 20:58.002 races | 20:41.001 race | -1.35% |
| Cooper Schuldt | 2025 | 18:45.002 races | 18:31.001 race | -1.24% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 17:28.001 race | 17:16.001 race | -1.15% |
| Alex Chen | 2025 | 21:56.002 races | 21:41.001 race | -1.14% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 27:43.002 races | 27:26.001 race | -1.02% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 22:17.002 races | 22:08.001 race | -0.67% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2025 | 17:17.002 races | 17:11.001 race | -0.58% |
| Colin Grierson | 2025 | 18:44.002 races | 18:38.001 race | -0.53% |
| Griffin Calhoun | 2025 | 19:22.001 race | 19:17.001 race | -0.43% |
| Patrick Snail | 2025 | 20:34.001 race | 20:29.001 race | -0.41% |
| Timothy Snail | 2025 | 18:29.001 race | 18:25.001 race | -0.36% |
| Xuton Tang | 2025 | 18:32.001 race | 18:30.001 race | -0.18% |
| Alexander Guo | 2025 | 22:24.002 races | 22:27.001 race | +0.22% |
| Ethan Xie | 2024 | 21:23.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +0.39% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:52.002 races | 18:58.001 race | +0.53% |
| Arthur Gao | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 26:56.001 race | +0.56% |
| David Xiong | 2025 | 18:01.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +0.65% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 17:51.002 races | 17:59.001 race | +0.75% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 19:01.002 races | 19:10.001 race | +0.79% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 21:29.002 races | 21:40.001 race | +0.85% |
| Alex Berk | 2025 | 21:23.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +0.86% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 21:57.002 races | 22:09.001 race | +0.91% |
| Babikir Saeed | 2024 | 18:55.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +1.06% |
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 22:10.002 races | 22:25.001 race | +1.13% |
| Riley Marth | 2025 | 19:29.002 races | 19:43.001 race | +1.20% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 17:41.002 races | 17:54.001 race | +1.23% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 17:44.001 race | 17:58.001 race | +1.32% |
| Pierce Courtney | 2025 | 19:40.002 races | 19:56.001 race | +1.36% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 21:23.002 races | 21:42.001 race | +1.48% |
| Hayden Gobron | 2021 | 19:05.002 races | 19:22.001 race | +1.48% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 17:16.001 race | 17:33.001 race | +1.64% |
| Jeff Wang | 2021 | 27:55.001 race | 28:25.001 race | +1.79% |
| Riley Marth | 2024 | 18:47.001 race | 19:09.001 race | +1.95% |
| Jack Kastner | 2024 | 21:00.001 race | 21:26.001 race | +2.06% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2024 | 19:40.001 race | 20:05.001 race | +2.12% |
| B Kwan | 2021 | 22:42.002 races | 23:11.001 race | +2.13% |
| Jack Good | 2025 | 18:43.002 races | 19:08.001 race | +2.23% |
| Peilin Li | 2025 | 19:44.001 race | 20:11.001 race | +2.28% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2024 | 19:01.001 race | 19:28.001 race | +2.37% |
| Finley Long | 2025 | 19:35.001 race | 20:04.001 race | +2.47% |
| David Xie | 2021 | 25:32.002 races | 26:12.001 race | +2.61% |
| James Nichols-Worley | 2021 | 19:11.003 races | 19:43.001 race | +2.78% |
| Adrian Chen | 2025 | 24:22.002 races | 25:03.001 race | +2.80% |
| Tyler Smith | 2024 | 19:14.001 race | 19:47.001 race | +2.86% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:29.002 races | 20:04.001 race | +2.99% |
| Brendan Kilpatrick | 2024 | 22:16.001 race | 22:57.001 race | +3.07% |
| George Carroll | 2024 | 19:31.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +3.33% |
| Sebastian Colberg | 2024 | 19:28.001 race | 20:08.001 race | +3.42% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:07.002 races | 22:55.001 race | +3.62% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 19:36.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +3.66% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 17:38.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +3.69% |
| Joshua Resnick | 2025 | 18:29.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +3.97% |
| Martin Li | 2021 | 22:39.002 races | 23:33.001 race | +3.97% |
| James Keefe | 2024 | 24:14.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +4.13% |
| Ryan Chang-Wu | 2024 | 22:58.001 race | 23:57.001 race | +4.28% |
| Alex Chen | 2024 | 20:49.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +4.56% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 16:07.001 race | 16:52.001 race | +4.65% |
| Condy Bao | 2021 | 21:19.002 races | 22:19.001 race | +4.69% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:30.002 races | 27:47.001 race | +4.84% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 15:51.002 races | 16:40.001 race | +5.15% |
| Jack Good | 2024 | 18:43.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +5.16% |
| Alexandre White | 2024 | 20:16.001 race | 21:21.001 race | +5.35% |
| Henry Pojasek | 2025 | 20:55.001 race | 22:06.001 race | +5.66% |
| Martin Ma | 2021 | 25:12.001 race | 26:48.001 race | +6.35% |
| Matthew Ding | 2025 | 21:00.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +6.43% |
| Henry Wang | 2021 | 23:11.002 races | 25:02.001 race | +7.98% |
| Jacob Cifuentes | 2021 | 25:27.002 races | 33:00.001 race | +29.67% |
| Ian Choe | 2021 | 27:01.001 race | 35:47.001 race | +32.45% |