Pairwise course analysis

St. Paul's School 5Kvs.Milton Standard 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Milton Standard 5K runs faster

-1.07%

Roughly 12.8 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

37

Developing evidence

Median difference

-0.80%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-1.07%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.92%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Milton Standard 5K fasterEvenMilton Standard 5K slower

Confidence interval

-1.93% to -0.32%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Paul's School 5KMilton Standard 5KDifference
Brenna Thomas202225:00.001 race23:08.001 race-7.47%
Alexa Burton202223:11.001 race21:39.003 races-6.61%
Mathilde Senter202225:35.001 race24:40.001 race-3.58%
Sophie Majernik202224:01.001 race23:13.001 race-3.33%
Annie Lopez202225:33.001 race24:42.001 race-3.33%
Masan Porter202222:46.001 race22:01.004 races-3.29%
Kailin Shi202223:17.001 race22:31.004 races-3.29%
Claire Choe202221:21.001 race20:39.004 races-3.28%
Molly Sheehan202223:15.001 race22:31.004 races-3.15%
Angie Feng202225:58.001 race25:09.001 race-3.15%
Matthew Abati202220:06.001 race19:35.002 races-2.57%
Ava Kocher202225:20.001 race24:42.001 race-2.50%
Emilie Andrews202225:35.001 race25:00.001 race-2.28%
Hudson Li202221:25.001 race20:58.002 races-2.10%
Kevin Farmer202219:55.001 race19:33.002 races-1.84%
Lara Poole202226:18.001 race25:49.001 race-1.84%
Thomas Strong202220:01.001 race19:42.001 race-1.58%
Natalia Calvillo202223:45.001 race23:24.001 race-1.47%
Louis Chiasson202220:50.001 race20:40.002 races-0.80%
Charlotte Hayward202222:20.001 race22:10.001 race-0.75%
Ella Berger202225:17.001 race25:06.001 race-0.73%
Jacob (Coby) Mulliken202219:43.001 race19:36.001 race-0.59%
Evan Zhang202221:02.001 race20:58.002 races-0.32%
Dion Cheung202227:16.001 race27:15.004 races-0.06%
Clare Struzziery202223:02.001 race23:02.001 race0.00%
Torey Mathews202223:54.001 race23:56.004 races+0.14%
Mara Dubois202226:12.001 race26:22.001 race+0.64%
Lia Gavin202222:56.001 race23:05.001 race+0.65%
Sophia Lee202224:08.001 race24:18.001 race+0.69%
Meredith Monnich202223:24.001 race23:34.004 races+0.71%
Jason Louie202219:44.001 race19:55.002 races+0.93%
Po-Tao Hsueh202221:25.001 race21:47.002 races+1.71%
Maya Vernazza202222:54.001 race23:19.001 race+1.82%
Zoe Campbell202221:14.001 race21:51.003 races+2.90%
Riley Gordon202224:01.001 race24:43.001 race+2.91%
Emma Rose Zilla202225:22.001 race26:07.004 races+2.96%
Michaela Ocko202223:09.001 race23:52.002 races+3.10%