Pairwise course analysis
St. Paul's School 5Kvs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower
+0.93%
Roughly 11.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
17
Developing evidence
Median difference
-1.28%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.93%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.72%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-2.11% to -0.33%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Paul's School 5K | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Harrison | 2022 | 19:18.001 race | 18:29.001 race | -4.23% |
| Henry Ramanathan | 2022 | 20:35.001 race | 19:51.001 race | -3.56% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2022 | 18:35.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -3.50% |
| Alexander Behn | 2022 | 19:17.001 race | 18:43.001 race | -2.94% |
| Jack Kastner | 2022 | 22:02.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -2.65% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2022 | 18:12.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -2.11% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2022 | 19:00.001 race | 18:39.001 race | -1.84% |
| Carver Porter | 2022 | 20:09.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -1.57% |
| Daniel Xie | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -1.28% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2022 | 18:31.001 race | 18:18.001 race | -1.17% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 20:51.001 race | -0.95% |
| Michael Bobo | 2022 | 21:24.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -0.23% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2022 | 21:28.001 race | 21:28.001 race | 0.00% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2022 | 20:27.001 race | 20:36.001 race | +0.73% |
| Luca Mezzanotte | 2022 | 20:51.001 race | 21:08.001 race | +1.36% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2022 | 17:30.001 race | 17:48.001 race | +1.71% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2022 | 18:08.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +1.75% |