Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Bouchard Park 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Bouchard Park 5K runs faster
-5.65%
Roughly 1:08 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
32
Developing evidence
Median difference
-5.57%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-5.65%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.08%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-7.21% to -4.42%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Bouchard Park 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2019 | 28:56.001 race | 24:46.701 race | -14.36% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 29:20.001 race | 25:52.101 race | -11.81% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 20:05.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -11.29% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 19:32.001 race | -10.74% |
| Andrew Correia | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 19:55.001 race | -10.69% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 20:09.001 race | -9.78% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -9.33% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 18:27.001 race | 16:52.001 race | -8.58% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 20:07.001 race | 18:26.001 race | -8.37% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -8.10% |
| Alex Avram | 2019 | 27:33.001 race | 25:23.201 race | -7.85% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -7.68% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:48.001 race | 17:27.001 race | -7.18% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 27:32.001 race | 25:34.501 race | -7.11% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:15.501 race | -6.42% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 21:51.001 race | 20:35.001 race | -5.80% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 18:39.801 race | -5.34% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:02.601 race | -5.14% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 22:27.001 race | 21:21.901 race | -4.83% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 19:37.001 race | 18:50.901 race | -3.92% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 22:31.101 race | -3.49% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 22:16.001 race | 21:30.601 race | -3.40% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:13.001 race | 18:34.601 race | -3.33% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 19:46.001 race | 19:11.701 race | -2.89% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 23:30.301 race | -2.74% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:03.001 race | 17:36.301 race | -2.47% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 19:31.301 race | -1.90% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 24:09.001 race | 23:43.301 race | -1.77% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 20:27.901 race | -0.98% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 24:40.001 race | 24:47.201 race | +0.49% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 19:08.001 race | 19:24.801 race | +1.46% |
| Dhruv Padmanabhan | 2019 | 28:57.001 race | 29:24.701 race | +1.59% |