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Pairwise course analysis

St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.LA 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

LA 5K Course runs faster

-0.93%

Roughly 11.2 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

54

Strong evidence

Median difference

-2.38%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-0.93%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.07%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

LA 5K Course fasterEvenLA 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

-3.29% to -1.28%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

St. Sebastian's 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

LA 5K Course

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Sebastian's 5K CourseLA 5K CourseDifference
Suhas Kaniyar202529:38.001 race25:23.001 race-14.34%
Declan Woolbert202520:40.001 race18:10.001 race-12.10%
Babikir Saeed202520:29.001 race18:51.001 race-7.97%
John (Jake) Popeo202220:47.001 race19:14.001 race-7.46%
William Achtmeyer202522:19.001 race20:55.001 race-6.27%
John (Jack) Tompros202223:05.001 race21:44.001 race-5.85%
Jonathan Demosthene202222:03.001 race20:50.001 race-5.52%
Yamin Ibrahim202519:03.001 race18:04.001 race-5.16%
Sebastian Culleton202219:48.001 race18:50.001 race-4.88%
Liam Gavin202221:57.001 race20:54.001 race-4.78%
Chris Thompson202220:39.001 race19:41.001 race-4.68%
Thomas Egan202522:04.001 race21:06.001 race-4.38%
Jack Good202520:16.001 race19:26.001 race-4.11%
James Palumbo202521:57.001 race21:12.001 race-3.42%
Jack Connors202218:16.001 race17:39.001 race-3.38%
Riley Marth202520:59.001 race20:18.001 race-3.26%
Alexander Guo202522:58.001 race22:14.001 race-3.19%
William Hansen202220:40.001 race20:02.001 race-3.06%
Timothy Snail202519:15.001 race18:40.001 race-3.03%
William Trautz202516:31.001 race16:01.001 race-3.03%
Colin Grierson202519:17.001 race18:42.001 race-3.03%
Eric Diop202218:24.001 race17:52.001 race-2.90%
Thomas Savage202222:22.001 race21:45.002 races-2.76%
Miles Keller202519:22.001 race18:53.001 race-2.50%
Mathias Why202220:50.001 race20:19.001 race-2.48%
Eddie Zhang202222:12.001 race21:40.001 race-2.40%
Michael Kalinichenko202226:28.001 race25:50.001 race-2.39%
William Hansen201921:51.001 race21:20.001 race-2.36%
John Joyce202218:33.001 race18:08.001 race-2.25%
Akhilsai Damera202220:50.001 race20:22.001 race-2.24%
Patrick Snail202521:22.001 race20:54.001 race-2.18%
Samuel Hinman202218:44.001 race18:21.001 race-2.05%
Thomas Flatley201918:52.001 race18:31.001 race-1.86%
Daniel Ko201926:01.001 race25:34.001 race-1.73%
Quinn Thomson202223:21.001 race22:59.001 race-1.57%
Eita Fuse202519:01.001 race18:44.001 race-1.49%
Matthew Choumenkovitch202224:36.001 race24:17.001 race-1.29%
Calvin Reid202223:07.001 race22:53.001 race-1.01%
Alex Chen202522:28.001 race22:16.001 race-0.89%
Zach Heaton202220:19.001 race20:10.001 race-0.74%
Ezra Klauber202219:35.001 race19:31.001 race-0.34%
Levi Harrison202218:37.001 race18:34.001 race-0.27%
Michael Thomas202219:04.001 race19:03.001 race-0.09%
Akshay Kumar202220:21.001 race20:25.001 race+0.33%
Samuel Hinman201918:53.001 race18:58.001 race+0.44%
Henry Gennari201922:39.001 race22:54.001 race+1.10%
Griffin Calhoun202520:27.001 race20:51.001 race+1.96%
Patrick McDonald201918:01.001 race18:23.001 race+2.04%
Alessandro Barbiellini201922:47.001 race23:15.001 race+2.05%
Mark Wilson201920:28.001 race21:01.001 race+2.69%
Matthew Choumenkovitch201923:37.001 race24:16.001 race+2.75%
John Pena202522:38.001 race23:33.001 race+4.05%
Joseph Pandit201919:03.001 race20:11.001 race+5.95%
Darian Estrada202226:30.001 race28:30.001 race+7.55%