Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Milton Standard 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Milton Standard 5K runs faster
-4.55%
Roughly 54.6 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
61
Strong evidence
Median difference
-6.19%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.55%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.74%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Milton Standard 5K fasterEvenMilton Standard 5K slower
Confidence interval
-7.57% to -5.69%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Milton Standard 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Rodriguez | 2022 | 26:22.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -15.17% |
| Jaiden Delva | 2022 | 29:52.001 race | 25:27.001 race | -14.79% |
| Serhii Malevych | 2022 | 27:22.001 race | 23:23.002 races | -14.56% |
| Zidan Graham | 2022 | 27:23.001 race | 23:49.002 races | -13.02% |
| Archer Coy | 2022 | 25:59.001 race | 22:38.002 races | -12.89% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 23:47.001 race | 20:48.001 race | -12.54% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 23:02.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -10.71% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 22:16.001 race | 19:55.002 races | -10.55% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 29:11.001 race | 26:08.001 race | -10.45% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 21:55.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -10.11% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 19:29.001 race | 17:31.001 race | -10.09% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 24:01.001 race | 21:47.001 race | -9.30% |
| Taylor Holmes | 2023 | 20:30.001 race | 18:38.001 race | -9.11% |
| Brady Payne | 2022 | 21:31.001 race | 19:34.002 races | -9.06% |
| Samuel Degrappo | 2022 | 21:01.001 race | 19:07.002 races | -9.04% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 21:27.001 race | 19:36.001 race | -8.62% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 21:22.001 race | 19:33.002 races | -8.50% |
| Gratian Ting | 2022 | 22:51.001 race | 20:59.002 races | -8.17% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 19:30.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -8.03% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 25:01.001 race | 23:05.001 race | -7.73% |
| Kevin Weldon | 2023 | 23:56.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -7.45% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 25:03.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -7.39% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 23:58.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -7.30% |
| Theodore Choe | 2022 | 20:12.001 race | 18:45.002 races | -7.18% |
| Louis Chiasson | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 20:40.002 races | -7.12% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:48.001 race | 17:34.001 race | -6.56% |
| Haotong (HT) Xue | 2022 | 20:14.001 race | 18:57.002 races | -6.34% |
| Abner Machuca-Diaz | 2023 | 21:34.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -6.34% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 20:51.001 race | 19:32.001 race | -6.31% |
| Hudson Li | 2022 | 22:21.001 race | 20:58.002 races | -6.19% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 21:33.001 race | 20:13.001 race | -6.19% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 22:12.001 race | 20:51.001 race | -6.08% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 20:06.001 race | 18:53.001 race | -6.05% |
| Yaman Habip | 2022 | 20:30.001 race | 19:17.002 races | -5.93% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 20:15.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -5.93% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 17:55.001 race | 16:56.001 race | -5.49% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 17:38.001 race | 16:41.001 race | -5.39% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 18:12.001 race | 17:14.001 race | -5.31% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 22:59.001 race | 21:47.002 races | -5.22% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 19:22.001 race | -5.07% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2023 | 21:14.001 race | 20:13.001 race | -4.79% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 18:24.001 race | 17:32.001 race | -4.71% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 25:30.001 race | 24:19.001 race | -4.64% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2022 | 18:41.001 race | 17:51.002 races | -4.46% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 21:00.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -4.44% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 20:34.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -4.29% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 20:23.001 race | 19:31.001 race | -4.25% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:29.001 race | 17:43.001 race | -4.15% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 20:54.001 race | 20:02.001 race | -4.15% |
| Connor Steele | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 18:55.002 races | -4.14% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -4.08% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -3.92% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2022 | 20:15.001 race | 19:31.002 races | -3.62% |
| Liam Gavin | 2023 | 21:46.001 race | 21:01.001 race | -3.45% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2022 | 21:07.001 race | 20:25.001 race | -3.31% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:17.001 race | 17:42.001 race | -3.19% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 19:58.001 race | 19:23.001 race | -2.92% |
| Evan Zhang | 2022 | 21:19.001 race | 20:58.002 races | -1.64% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2023 | 21:53.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +1.60% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2023 | 22:01.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +2.35% |
| Eli Berk | 2022 | 24:24.001 race | 25:12.001 race | +3.28% |