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Pairwise course analysis

St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.RL 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

RL 5K Course runs slower

+0.31%

Roughly 3.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

46

Strong evidence

Median difference

+1.78%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+0.31%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+6.62%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

+2.21% to +5.84%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

St. Sebastian's 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

RL 5K Course

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Sebastian's 5K CourseRL 5K CourseDifference
John (Jake) Popeo202220:47.001 race19:43.003 races-5.13%
John (Jack) Tompros202223:05.001 race22:07.003 races-4.19%
Calvin Reid202223:07.001 race22:22.003 races-3.24%
Michael Allen202223:04.001 race22:33.002 races-2.24%
Mathias Why202220:50.001 race20:28.003 races-1.76%
Akhilsai Damera202220:50.001 race20:30.002 races-1.60%
Jack Connors202317:55.001 race17:43.001 race-1.12%
Michael Thomas202219:04.001 race18:55.002 races-0.79%
Zach Heaton202220:19.001 race20:12.003 races-0.57%
Thomas Savage202222:22.001 race22:22.002 races0.00%
John Joyce202317:38.001 race17:39.001 race+0.09%
Taylor Holmes202320:30.001 race20:32.001 race+0.16%
Chris Thompson202319:58.001 race20:00.001 race+0.17%
Kofi Fordjour202217:26.001 race17:29.003 races+0.29%
Ezra Klauber202219:35.001 race19:39.004 races+0.34%
Eric Zhu202219:55.001 race20:00.002 races+0.42%
Eric Diop202218:24.001 race18:31.002 races+0.63%
John Joyce202516:54.001 race17:01.001 race+0.69%
Joseph Koh202320:34.001 race20:43.001 race+0.73%
Sebastian Culleton202318:12.001 race18:21.001 race+0.82%
Alexander Wasynczuk202321:00.001 race21:17.001 race+1.35%
Quinn Thomson202223:21.001 race23:42.003 races+1.50%
Jack Halloran202518:19.001 race18:36.001 race+1.55%
Darian Estrada202226:30.001 race27:02.002 races+2.01%
Henry Bowman202521:36.001 race22:06.001 race+2.31%
Levi Harrison202218:37.001 race19:03.003 races+2.33%
Akshay Kumar202220:21.001 race20:57.003 races+2.95%
Sebastian Culleton202518:28.001 race19:07.001 race+3.52%
Cormac Anderson202522:01.001 race23:00.001 race+4.47%
Anthony Marcucci202523:25.001 race24:46.001 race+5.77%
Patrick Fennell202521:21.001 race22:37.001 race+5.93%
William Hansen201921:51.001 race23:09.001 race+5.95%
Nate Bloomenthal202519:57.001 race21:15.001 race+6.52%
Rohan Ghatge202522:39.001 race24:11.001 race+6.77%
Richie Joyce202523:02.001 race24:36.001 race+6.80%
Samuel Hinman201918:53.001 race20:28.001 race+8.38%
Thomas Flatley201918:52.001 race20:27.001 race+8.39%
Patrick McDonald201918:01.001 race19:34.001 race+8.60%
Joseph Ryan202524:11.001 race26:46.001 race+10.68%
Michael Kalinichenko201929:00.001 race32:17.001 race+11.32%
Joseph Koh202519:49.001 race22:10.001 race+11.86%
Joseph Pandit201919:03.001 race21:19.001 race+11.90%
Bobby Ferguson202522:14.001 race25:20.001 race+13.94%
Daniel Ko201926:01.001 race30:59.001 race+19.09%
Ryan Albertson201922:37.001 race27:15.001 race+20.49%
Matthew Choumenkovitch201923:37.001 race29:33.001 race+25.12%