Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Rock Meadow 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow 5K runs faster
-2.31%
Roughly 27.7 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
25
Developing evidence
Median difference
-3.98%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.31%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.21%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-5.53% to -3.40%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Rock Meadow 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 29:11.001 race | 26:10.001 race | -10.34% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 19:29.001 race | 17:53.001 race | -8.21% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 23:02.001 race | 21:11.001 race | -8.03% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 20:51.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -7.67% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 23:47.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -7.57% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 20:15.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -7.41% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 19:30.001 race | 18:09.001 race | -6.92% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 24:01.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -5.55% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 22:12.001 race | 21:03.001 race | -5.18% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 23:58.001 race | 22:44.001 race | -5.15% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2023 | 25:46.001 race | 24:32.001 race | -4.79% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:48.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -4.61% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 20:06.001 race | 19:18.001 race | -3.98% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 25:03.001 race | 24:05.001 race | -3.86% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 20:23.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -3.68% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 25:01.001 race | 24:13.001 race | -3.20% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 18:24.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -2.63% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:17.001 race | 17:52.001 race | -2.28% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:29.001 race | 18:06.001 race | -2.07% |
| Vincent Mezzanotte | 2023 | 20:54.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -1.75% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 20:07.001 race | -1.55% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:24.001 race | 20:06.001 race | -1.47% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 21:33.001 race | 21:15.001 race | -1.39% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2023 | 18:05.001 race | 17:54.001 race | -1.01% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 25:30.001 race | 25:21.001 race | -0.59% |