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Pairwise course analysis

St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.St. Mark's School Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

St. Mark's School Championship Course runs faster

-2.91%

Roughly 34.9 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

80

Strong evidence

Median difference

-3.64%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-2.91%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+6.75%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

St. Mark's School Championship Course fasterEvenSt. Mark's School Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

-5.08% to -3.01%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

St. Sebastian's 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

St. Mark's School Championship Course

4,900 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Sebastian's 5K CourseSt. Mark's School Championship CourseDifference
Andrew Rodriguez202226:22.001 race22:09.001 race-15.99%
Declan Woolbert202520:40.001 race17:42.002 races-14.35%
Suhas Kaniyar202529:38.001 race25:27.002 races-14.12%
Tim Guan201929:20.001 race25:38.001 race-12.61%
Michael Kalinichenko201929:00.001 race25:35.001 race-11.78%
Asher Parker-Sartori201928:56.001 race25:52.001 race-10.60%
Adrian Chen202534:14.001 race30:38.002 races-10.52%
Samuel Degrappo202221:01.001 race18:51.001 race-10.31%
Gratian Ting202222:51.001 race20:40.001 race-9.56%
Daniel Ko201926:01.001 race23:34.001 race-9.42%
Kai On (Jason) Yu202222:09.001 race20:07.001 race-9.18%
Riley Marth202520:59.001 race19:11.002 races-8.58%
Yamin Ibrahim202519:03.001 race17:31.002 races-8.05%
Tyler Smith202522:00.001 race20:18.002 races-7.73%
Kevin Farmer202221:22.001 race19:44.001 race-7.64%
Brady Payne202221:31.001 race19:55.001 race-7.44%
Louis Chiasson202222:15.001 race20:36.001 race-7.42%
Eita Fuse202519:01.001 race17:39.002 races-7.19%
Jason Louie202222:16.001 race20:40.001 race-7.19%
Jacob (Coby) Mulliken202221:27.001 race19:56.001 race-7.07%
William Achtmeyer202522:19.001 race20:46.002 races-6.95%
Jack Good202520:16.001 race18:54.002 races-6.74%
Hudson Li202222:21.001 race20:51.001 race-6.71%
Theodore Choe202220:12.001 race18:54.001 race-6.44%
Shea McDonnell202522:26.001 race21:04.002 races-6.09%
Alex Wu201919:43.001 race18:36.001 race-5.66%
Serhii Malevych202227:22.001 race25:52.001 race-5.48%
Thomas Egan202522:04.001 race20:52.002 races-5.44%
Miles Keller202519:22.001 race18:19.002 races-5.42%
Alex Chen202522:28.001 race21:15.002 races-5.42%
Eli Berk202224:24.001 race23:05.001 race-5.40%
Griffin Calhoun202520:27.001 race19:22.001 race-5.30%
Colin Grierson202519:17.001 race18:23.002 races-4.67%
Connor Steele202219:44.001 race18:51.001 race-4.48%
Sebastian Culleton202219:48.001 race18:56.001 race-4.38%
Andrew Gilmore202523:59.001 race23:00.002 races-4.10%
Timothy Snail202519:15.001 race18:29.001 race-3.98%
Patrick Snail202521:22.001 race20:34.001 race-3.74%
Oscar Caprano201924:40.001 race23:46.001 race-3.65%
Samuel Hinman202218:44.001 race18:03.001 race-3.65%
Alexander Guo202522:58.001 race22:08.002 races-3.63%
James Palumbo202521:57.001 race21:10.002 races-3.57%
Owen Dowden201927:32.001 race26:34.001 race-3.51%
William Hansen201921:51.001 race21:05.001 race-3.51%
Jack Connors202218:16.001 race17:38.001 race-3.47%
Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero202218:41.001 race18:03.001 race-3.39%
Christian Batemen201921:47.001 race21:04.001 race-3.29%
William Hansen202220:40.001 race20:00.001 race-3.23%
Chris Thompson202220:39.001 race20:05.001 race-2.74%
Julian Li201919:37.001 race19:05.001 race-2.72%
Samuel Hinman201918:53.001 race18:24.001 race-2.56%
Thomas Flatley201918:52.001 race18:25.001 race-2.39%
Louis Levy201922:27.001 race21:55.001 race-2.38%
Zane Davis201924:09.001 race23:37.001 race-2.21%
Ford Legg201922:11.001 race21:43.001 race-2.10%
Elan Libman202523:58.001 race23:32.701 race-1.76%
Sam Modur201924:10.001 race23:47.001 race-1.59%
Andrew Monsalve201922:16.001 race21:58.001 race-1.35%
Konstantin Lukin-Yelin201919:46.001 race19:34.001 race-1.01%
Joseph Pandit201919:03.001 race18:53.001 race-0.87%
Mark Wilson201920:28.001 race20:26.001 race-0.16%
Charles Chen201923:20.001 race23:18.001 race-0.14%
Augustus Hawk201922:13.001 race22:12.001 race-0.08%
Alessandro Barbiellini201922:47.001 race22:46.001 race-0.07%
Matthew Choumenkovitch201923:37.001 race23:36.001 race-0.07%
Cooper Schuldt202519:24.001 race19:27.002 races+0.26%
Sam Rabieh201918:03.001 race18:08.001 race+0.46%
Theo Goldman201922:43.001 race22:53.001 race+0.73%
Ryan Albertson201922:37.001 race22:50.001 race+0.96%
Henry Gennari201922:39.001 race22:55.001 race+1.18%
John Joyce202218:33.001 race18:48.001 race+1.35%
Patrick McDonald201918:01.001 race18:18.001 race+1.57%
Mathew Hong201919:08.001 race19:28.001 race+1.74%
Jake Elkins201919:54.001 race20:17.001 race+1.93%
Nicholas Tao201920:40.001 race21:07.001 race+2.18%
William Trautz202516:31.001 race16:53.002 races+2.22%
Ryan Loughran201919:13.001 race19:40.001 race+2.34%
John Pena202522:38.001 race23:25.002 races+3.46%
Haotong (HT) Xue202220:14.001 race21:09.001 race+4.53%
Eddie Zhang202222:12.001 race24:59.001 race+12.54%