Pairwise course analysis
Thayer 5K Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+3.92%
Roughly 47.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
37
Developing evidence
Median difference
+6.28%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.92%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+9.55%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+5.68% to +10.35%
Scale shown
-12% to +12%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Thayer 5K Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Abell | 2025 | 21:57.001 race | 21:10.001 race | -3.57% |
| Eliza Hirsch | 2019 | 41:22.001 race | 40:41.002 races | -1.65% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 29:57.001 race | 30:05.003 races | +0.45% |
| Connor Keleher | 2025 | 21:08.001 race | 21:17.001 race | +0.71% |
| Charlotte Wolford | 2019 | 31:07.001 race | 31:32.002 races | +1.34% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 23:56.001 race | 24:18.003 races | +1.53% |
| Lily Weinstein | 2019 | 39:34.001 race | 40:16.001 race | +1.77% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 26:00.001 race | 26:32.003 races | +2.05% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 27:31.001 race | 28:05.003 races | +2.06% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 25:17.001 race | 25:52.003 races | +2.31% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 27:35.003 races | +3.31% |
| Oliver Massey | 2025 | 19:15.001 race | 19:55.001 race | +3.46% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2025 | 20:09.001 race | 20:56.001 race | +3.89% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2025 | 19:31.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +4.27% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 26:29.001 race | 27:50.003 races | +5.10% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 26:49.001 race | 28:19.003 races | +5.59% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 27:51.001 race | 29:28.002 races | +5.80% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 26:19.003 races | +5.83% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 26:32.001 race | 28:12.003 races | +6.28% |
| Owen Haskell | 2025 | 18:55.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +7.49% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 21:03.001 race | 22:38.001 race | +7.52% |
| Calvin Jacobs | 2025 | 18:58.001 race | 20:32.001 race | +8.26% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 16:58.001 race | 18:26.001 race | +8.64% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 23:16.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +9.31% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 24:33.001 race | 26:53.001 race | +9.50% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 28:39.001 race | 31:26.001 race | +9.71% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +11.09% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 22:54.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +12.08% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 22:05.001 race | 25:06.001 race | +13.66% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 26:46.001 race | +14.47% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 23:21.001 race | 27:06.001 race | +16.06% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 26:57.001 race | 31:19.001 race | +16.20% |
| Amy Li | 2019 | 33:31.001 race | 38:57.003 races | +16.21% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 25:14.002 races | 29:45.001 race | +17.90% |
| Linda Qin | 2019 | 31:27.001 race | 38:09.003 races | +21.30% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 25:01.001 race | 31:12.001 race | +24.72% |
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 30:35.001 race | 39:43.002 races | +29.86% |