Pairwise course analysis

WNH 5Kvs.Noble and Greenough School 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower

+1.05%

Roughly 12.6 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

11

Limited evidence

Median difference

+0.25%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+1.05%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.59%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Noble and Greenough School 5K fasterEvenNoble and Greenough School 5K slower

Confidence interval

-0.98% to +2.44%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonWNH 5KNoble and Greenough School 5KDifference
Carter Bartel202119:16.001 race18:48.004 races-2.42%
Matthew Loose202120:06.001 race19:48.004 races-1.49%
Ben Guenther202119:22.001 race19:08.003 races-1.20%
David Hermanson202119:50.001 race19:40.003 races-0.84%
Noah Douglas202119:06.001 race19:01.004 races-0.44%
Charlie Hall202120:08.001 race20:11.004 races+0.25%
Arnav Harve202120:18.001 race20:22.003 races+0.33%
Sam Millay202119:25.001 race19:32.004 races+0.60%
Max Hall202120:07.001 race20:37.004 races+2.49%
Will McLane202118:14.001 race18:44.004 races+2.74%
Tim Churchill202119:20.001 race20:56.002 races+8.28%