Pairwise course analysis
Andover 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+3.68%
Roughly 44.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
5
Limited evidence
Median difference
+4.47%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.68%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.07%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+2.18% to +5.93%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Andover 5K | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 18:56.001 race | 19:06.001 race | +0.88% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 15:36.001 race | 16:06.001 race | +3.21% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 18:17.001 race | 19:06.001 race | +4.47% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 18:24.001 race | 19:23.001 race | +5.34% |
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 17:58.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +6.40% |