Pairwise course analysis

Andover 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Middlesex 5K Course runs slower

+3.68%

Roughly 44.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

5

Limited evidence

Median difference

+4.47%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+3.68%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.07%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

+2.18% to +5.93%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonAndover 5KMiddlesex 5K CourseDifference
Nathaniel Voss202118:56.001 race19:06.001 race+0.88%
James Donahue202115:36.001 race16:06.001 race+3.21%
Aaron Stanger202118:17.001 race19:06.001 race+4.47%
Davis Woolbert202118:24.001 race19:23.001 race+5.34%
Thomas Romney202117:58.001 race19:07.001 race+6.40%