Pairwise course analysis
BB&N 5K Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+6.98%
Roughly 1:24 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
177
Deep evidence
Median difference
+7.84%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+6.98%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.48%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+7.45% to +8.98%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | BB&N 5K Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Lewis | 2019 | 28:42.001 race | 26:39.001 race | -7.14% |
| Amy Baez | 2019 | 37:35.001 race | 35:51.001 race | -4.61% |
| Tanay Kommareddi | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -3.90% |
| Liam Nawara | 2019 | 23:06.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -0.94% |
| Charlie Guerra | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -0.84% |
| Ryan Swords | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 20:33.001 race | -0.08% |
| Caroline Fai | 2019 | 25:05.001 race | 25:04.001 race | -0.07% |
| Charles Wang | 2019 | 22:04.001 race | 22:06.001 race | +0.15% |
| Claire Mao | 2019 | 24:08.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +0.48% |
| Alex Janower | 2019 | 25:02.001 race | 25:31.001 race | +1.93% |
| Katie Armstrong | 2019 | 24:17.001 race | 24:50.001 race | +2.26% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 17:36.001 race | 18:01.001 race | +2.37% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2023 | 21:15.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +2.43% |
| Max Gomez | 2019 | 17:56.001 race | 18:23.001 race | +2.51% |
| Emilio Manz | 2023 | 20:47.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +2.65% |
| Arnav Harve | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +2.72% |
| Sam Soukas | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +3.10% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2019 | 22:37.001 race | 23:24.001 race | +3.46% |
| Carter Bartel | 2019 | 19:26.001 race | 20:08.001 race | +3.60% |
| Jane Saltzman | 2019 | 23:41.001 race | 24:33.001 race | +3.66% |
| Caroline Finnerty | 2019 | 22:33.001 race | 23:23.001 race | +3.70% |
| Sammy Guerrero | 2019 | 21:33.001 race | 22:25.001 race | +4.02% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 17:10.001 race | 17:52.001 race | +4.08% |
| Sophia Lowry | 2019 | 24:28.001 race | 25:28.001 race | +4.09% |
| Chris Athanasia | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 22:02.001 race | +4.09% |
| Keenan Billings | 2023 | 18:26.002 races | 19:12.001 race | +4.16% |
| Ben Kaplan | 2023 | 24:35.002 races | 25:38.001 race | +4.27% |
| Max Hall | 2019 | 18:16.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +4.29% |
| Jennifer Do-Dai | 2019 | 26:33.001 race | 27:43.001 race | +4.39% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2023 | 22:41.003 races | 23:41.001 race | +4.41% |
| Nathan Ma | 2023 | 25:12.001 race | 26:20.001 race | +4.50% |
| Finn Crawford | 2019 | 16:54.001 race | 17:40.001 race | +4.54% |
| Ella Brown | 2019 | 23:47.001 race | 24:52.001 race | +4.56% |
| Jacob Casper | 2019 | 22:06.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +4.60% |
| Justin Qin | 2019 | 17:22.001 race | 18:11.001 race | +4.70% |
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2022 | 21:28.001 race | 22:29.001 race | +4.74% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2023 | 22:18.003 races | 23:24.001 race | +4.93% |
| Brendan Kilpatrick | 2024 | 21:46.001 race | 22:52.001 race | +5.05% |
| Rhodes Martinez | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +5.06% |
| George Pinkas | 2023 | 24:10.001 race | 25:24.001 race | +5.10% |
| Sam Jankey | 2019 | 20:27.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +5.13% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2023 | 24:27.003 races | 25:43.001 race | +5.18% |
| Alex Cheng | 2023 | 17:12.001 race | 18:07.001 race | +5.33% |
| Olivia Cheung | 2019 | 24:57.001 race | 26:19.001 race | +5.48% |
| David Hermanson | 2019 | 19:02.001 race | 20:05.001 race | +5.52% |
| Mari Capone | 2019 | 23:25.001 race | 24:45.001 race | +5.69% |
| Khalid Abdulle | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +5.74% |
| John Pena | 2024 | 19:39.001 race | 20:47.001 race | +5.77% |
| Wyatt Ellison | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +5.83% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2023 | 21:01.002 races | 22:15.001 race | +5.87% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2023 | 18:36.003 races | 19:42.001 race | +5.91% |
| Shawn Wu | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +5.92% |
| Luke Hotra | 2019 | 22:07.001 race | 23:26.001 race | +5.95% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 16:42.001 race | 17:42.001 race | +5.99% |
| Grace Hayward | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +5.99% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2023 | 19:12.003 races | 20:22.001 race | +6.08% |
| Jack Kastner | 2024 | 20:00.001 race | 21:13.001 race | +6.08% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 19:56.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +6.10% |
| Ethan Xie | 2024 | 20:24.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +6.21% |
| Rebecca Janfaza | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +6.34% |
| Sidnie Kulik | 2019 | 19:27.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +6.34% |
| Olivia Hayward | 2019 | 19:31.001 race | 20:46.001 race | +6.40% |
| Alexandra Nicholas | 2022 | 24:14.001 race | 25:48.001 race | +6.46% |
| Justin Power | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +6.47% |
| Alex Chen | 2024 | 20:10.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +6.53% |
| Ethan Anderson | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +6.59% |
| Niki Apostolicas | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +6.59% |
| Emily Orscheln | 2019 | 20:09.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +6.62% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 17:15.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +6.67% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 17:20.001 race | 18:30.001 race | +6.73% |
| Austin Qu | 2019 | 19:59.001 race | 21:20.001 race | +6.76% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2024 | 21:14.001 race | 22:42.001 race | +6.91% |
| David Xiong | 2023 | 19:05.001 race | 20:25.001 race | +6.99% |
| Patrick Denning | 2019 | 17:52.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +7.00% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 19:01.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +7.01% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 19:01.002 races | 20:22.001 race | +7.10% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2023 | 19:15.003 races | 20:37.001 race | +7.10% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 16:50.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +7.13% |
| Maxwell Huang | 2023 | 17:19.001 race | 18:34.001 race | +7.22% |
| Xavier Welch | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 25:57.001 race | +7.31% |
| George Scanlon | 2023 | 20:20.003 races | 21:51.001 race | +7.46% |
| Tyler Case | 2023 | 22:20.001 race | 24:00.001 race | +7.46% |
| Lily Roche Vanoot | 2019 | 22:36.001 race | 24:18.001 race | +7.52% |
| Chris Millay | 2019 | 18:05.001 race | 19:27.001 race | +7.56% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2024 | 17:38.001 race | 18:59.001 race | +7.66% |
| Josh Levine | 2023 | 22:33.001 race | 24:17.001 race | +7.69% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2023 | 22:17.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +7.78% |
| Alexa Zhou | 2023 | 24:16.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +7.83% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2019 | 22:44.001 race | 24:31.001 race | +7.84% |
| Matthew Ding | 2023 | 23:45.001 race | 25:37.001 race | +7.86% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 18:34.001 race | 20:02.001 race | +7.90% |
| Lucas Liu | 2022 | 19:29.001 race | 21:02.001 race | +7.96% |
| Nate Wirth | 2019 | 18:52.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +8.04% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2023 | 18:03.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +8.13% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 16:40.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +8.20% |
| Charlie Young | 2023 | 20:55.001 race | 22:38.001 race | +8.21% |
| Allison Park | 2023 | 23:43.001 race | 25:40.001 race | +8.22% |
| Emma Finkelstein | 2023 | 22:59.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +8.27% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 16:41.001 race | 18:04.001 race | +8.29% |
| Justin Lee | 2023 | 19:05.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +8.30% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2024 | 20:48.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +8.33% |
| Sam Millay | 2019 | 21:07.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +8.37% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2023 | 28:06.001 race | 30:28.001 race | +8.42% |
| Eli Norden | 2024 | 22:21.001 race | 24:14.001 race | +8.43% |
| James Fair | 2023 | 19:26.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +8.49% |
| Sam Leviton | 2024 | 16:42.001 race | 18:10.001 race | +8.78% |
| Anray Sheng | 2023 | 21:47.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +8.80% |
| Charlie Hall | 2023 | 18:42.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +9.09% |
| Amory Forman | 2023 | 19:47.002 races | 21:35.001 race | +9.10% |
| Quinn Conine | 2023 | 20:17.002 races | 22:08.001 race | +9.12% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2023 | 18:28.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +9.21% |
| Norah Jankey | 2019 | 27:08.001 race | 29:38.001 race | +9.21% |
| Lauren Kelley | 2019 | 30:10.001 race | 32:57.001 race | +9.23% |
| Tim Churchill | 2023 | 16:02.001 race | 17:31.001 race | +9.25% |
| Michael Timmins | 2023 | 18:53.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +9.27% |
| Vivian Li | 2019 | 28:55.001 race | 31:36.001 race | +9.28% |
| Will Grace | 2023 | 18:26.001 race | 20:09.001 race | +9.31% |
| Noah Douglas | 2023 | 16:15.001 race | 17:46.001 race | +9.33% |
| Devin Gray | 2023 | 18:11.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +9.35% |
| Thomas Devlin | 2022 | 20:06.001 race | 22:00.001 race | +9.45% |
| Elena Guerra | 2019 | 28:41.001 race | 31:24.001 race | +9.47% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2022 | 20:35.002 races | 22:33.001 race | +9.55% |
| Skylar Stadhard | 2019 | 32:43.001 race | 35:51.001 race | +9.58% |
| Alexis Nawara | 2019 | 28:39.001 race | 31:24.001 race | +9.60% |
| Emery Nordahl | 2023 | 21:43.001 race | 23:50.001 race | +9.75% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2023 | 18:43.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +9.88% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 20:14.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +9.97% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 15:19.001 race | 16:51.001 race | +10.01% |
| Molly Madigan | 2019 | 22:08.001 race | 24:22.001 race | +10.09% |
| Alice Wang | 2023 | 24:36.002 races | 27:05.001 race | +10.09% |
| Finley Long | 2022 | 19:08.002 races | 21:05.001 race | +10.19% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2022 | 20:54.002 races | 23:02.001 race | +10.21% |
| Om Paithankar | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +10.25% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2023 | 19:33.002 races | 21:36.001 race | +10.49% |
| Gavin Swartz | 2019 | 20:21.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +10.57% |
| Raquel Frankel | 2023 | 26:21.001 race | 29:12.001 race | +10.82% |
| Henry McLane | 2023 | 16:27.001 race | 18:14.001 race | +10.84% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 23:57.001 race | 26:33.001 race | +10.86% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 19:13.001 race | 21:19.001 race | +10.93% |
| Jeffrey Liu | 2023 | 22:52.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +11.52% |
| Kate Wei | 2023 | 22:48.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +11.55% |
| Diego Abadie | 2023 | 17:22.003 races | 19:23.001 race | +11.61% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 18:15.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +11.69% |
| Parker Lewis-Pierce | 2023 | 20:01.003 races | 22:24.001 race | +11.91% |
| Sofia Branco | 2023 | 28:15.001 race | 31:38.001 race | +11.98% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 22:04.001 race | 24:44.001 race | +12.08% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2022 | 18:41.002 races | 20:57.001 race | +12.13% |
| George Scanlon | 2022 | 20:38.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +12.20% |
| Finley Long | 2023 | 19:30.003 races | 21:54.001 race | +12.31% |
| Jayden Leung | 2023 | 19:54.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +12.40% |
| Nate Madden | 2023 | 20:03.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +12.55% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2023 | 26:07.003 races | 29:26.001 race | +12.70% |
| Riya Jain | 2023 | 28:12.001 race | 31:48.001 race | +12.77% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2023 | 21:07.001 race | 23:49.001 race | +12.79% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2023 | 21:04.002 races | 23:46.001 race | +12.82% |
| Ella Berger | 2023 | 23:08.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +13.04% |
| Gabriel Barreto-D'Silva | 2019 | 21:18.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +13.46% |
| Matthew Loose | 2023 | 17:29.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +13.73% |
| Ryan Chang-Wu | 2024 | 21:26.001 race | 24:24.001 race | +13.84% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2023 | 22:29.001 race | 25:38.001 race | +14.01% |
| Kira Morales | 2023 | 21:22.001 race | 24:24.001 race | +14.20% |
| Violet Zhang | 2023 | 26:06.002 races | 29:49.001 race | +14.24% |
| Elsbeth Kasparian | 2023 | 26:05.002 races | 29:50.001 race | +14.38% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 20:13.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +14.43% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 23:09.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +14.61% |
| Annie Lopez | 2023 | 23:52.001 race | 27:24.001 race | +14.80% |
| Eleanor Mayer | 2019 | 24:07.001 race | 27:42.001 race | +14.86% |
| Adam Jac | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +15.36% |
| Catherine Curran | 2023 | 26:48.001 race | 31:19.001 race | +16.85% |
| Joe Zhao | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 26:20.001 race | +17.65% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2023 | 21:59.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +19.03% |
| Oliver Kim | 2019 | 25:01.001 race | 29:55.001 race | +19.59% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2023 | 19:53.003 races | 24:26.001 race | +22.88% |
| Christina Hall | 2023 | 25:07.001 race | 30:57.001 race | +23.22% |
| Sam Kim | 2019 | 24:09.001 race | 29:48.001 race | +23.40% |
| Clara Choi | 2019 | 32:50.001 race | 41:50.001 race | +27.41% |
| Adam Jin | 2019 | 25:24.001 race | 35:28.001 race | +39.63% |