Pairwise course analysis
BB&N 5K Coursevs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+9.20%
Roughly 1:50 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
32
Developing evidence
Median difference
+9.49%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+9.20%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.99%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+7.83% to +11.04%
Scale shown
-12% to +12%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | BB&N 5K Course | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 23:54.003 races | 23:20.001 race | -2.37% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 18:55.003 races | 19:37.001 race | +3.70% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 17:18.002 races | 18:03.001 race | +4.34% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 18:17.003 races | 19:08.001 race | +4.65% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 21:20.002 races | 22:27.001 race | +5.23% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 22:55.002 races | 24:10.001 race | +5.45% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 18:41.003 races | 19:46.001 race | +5.80% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 17:36.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +6.44% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 18:00.003 races | 19:13.001 race | +6.76% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 17:10.001 race | 18:33.001 race | +8.06% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 19:01.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +8.68% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 18:58.003 races | 20:40.001 race | +8.96% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 18:14.003 races | 19:54.001 race | +9.14% |
| Alex Avram | 2019 | 25:12.003 races | 27:33.001 race | +9.33% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 16:42.001 race | 18:16.001 race | +9.38% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 18:01.003 races | 19:43.001 race | +9.44% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 20:15.002 races | 22:11.001 race | +9.55% |
| Thomas Devlin | 2022 | 20:06.001 race | 22:02.001 race | +9.62% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 25:02.003 races | 27:32.001 race | +9.99% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 20:35.003 races | 22:43.001 race | +10.36% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 22:20.002 races | 24:40.001 race | +10.45% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 20:09.003 races | 22:16.001 race | +10.50% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 21:51.003 races | 24:09.001 race | +10.53% |
| Augustus Hawk | 2019 | 20:02.003 races | 22:13.001 race | +10.90% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 19:37.003 races | 21:47.001 race | +11.05% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 18:34.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +11.22% |
| Ekaum Soni | 2019 | 29:02.001 race | 32:28.001 race | +11.83% |
| David Min | 2019 | 25:48.001 race | 29:19.001 race | +13.63% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 17:15.001 race | 19:48.001 race | +14.78% |
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2019 | 25:09.003 races | 28:56.001 race | +15.04% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 24:58.002 races | 29:20.001 race | +17.49% |
| Dhruv Padmanabhan | 2019 | 23:14.003 races | 28:57.001 race | +24.61% |